Rafik al-Hariri - Former Lebanese PM - Assasinated

[The Mad Monk]

As an aside, you have to remember that this is not the Assad who took power, it is his son -- who was living abroad when his father died and had to be, *ahem* encouraged by his father's associates to come into power.

He is also known as "Gameboy" Assad.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Jaakko
Now that JP article isn't that much off from what I just said, don't you agree?

Not quite - its more complicated, pointing out that while Baby Assad may not be involved, other elements in the Syrian establishment could be, or Syrias local Lebanese proteges could be.

[lord of the mark]

Note that Pres. Chirac is calling for an international investigation. This is IIUC, not being seen as friendly by Syria. The UNSC is discussing a possible response.

[Jaakko]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
Not quite - its more complicated, pointing out that while Baby Assad may not be involved, other elements in the Syrian establishment could be, or Syrias local Lebanese proteges could be.

Indeed, I hadn't thought of the possibility that the Syrian govt might be losing control like that.

However, the "business connection" was there, as was the doubt that the actual government would do it, because it would be really stupid of them.

[Ned]

Talk on the tube by experts point out that Syria is the main culprit behind the continued Sunni insurgency in Iraq and that we cannot solve that problem unless Syria changes its policies. The events in Lebanon indicate, however, that the direction of Syrian politics is vectored toward increasing hostility towards the West. The experts also say that the Syrians view the United States as a barking dog, and do not take our posturing seriously.

All this sounds exactly like Saddam II. Saddam could have taken a conciliatory tone after the Gulf War. Instead, he continued his dogged defiance. He thought that France and Russia, among others, would protect him at the UN.

Hopefully, this time France and Russia will not start sending Assad false signals of support that will only encourage his continued journey down the path to war. A united front may force Syria to moderate its policies.

[Ramo]

A syrian job?

I don't know about that. Lebanese politics have been fairly stable for a while, so I don't see any reason why Syria should try to rock the boat, particularly considering that Dear Leader doesn't need much of an excuse to go around invading countries in the region. Some have suggested that it may be related to al-Qaeda hits against Saudi targets (Hariri has Saudi citizenship, is a major Saudi contractor, etc.).

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo

A syrian job?

I don't know about that. Lebanese politics have been fairly stable for a while, so I don't see any reason why Syria should try to rock the boat, particularly considering that Dear Leader doesn't need much of an excuse to go around invading countries in the region. Some have suggested that it may be related to al-Qaeda hits against Saudi targets (Hariri has Saudi citizenship, is a major Saudi contractor, etc.).

Stable? Syria started moves to extend the term of Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president. This created lots of discontent, and has joined the Druze led by Jumblatt with the Maronites. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, withdrew from the Lahoud cabinet (as did a Druze, who was also bombed, but survived). Hariri is widely thought to be involved with French and US support for UNSC 1559, which called on Syria to quit Lebanon. Hariri was clearly a potential leader of a post-occupation Lebanon. Syria was clearly feeling under stress, not to mention being rather unhappy with an Israel-Pal peace process that leaves them in the cold.

Fear of Bush? With the US army tied up in Iraq, with the US trying to renew relations with Europe, with a US public presumably skeptical of any new adventures, this would be the IDEAL time to take action - show the world , and would be dissidents in Lebanon and elsewhere that US power is hollow, we can kill the most popular pol in Lebanon right in front of his own posh real estate developments, and the US cant do a damned thing.

You certainly dont want to wait, till the balance of forces is less favorable.

[Sprayber]

Originally posted by Jaakko
At this point I should also point out that my beef in this thread was mainly the US admin's statements following the assassination. It doesn't matter who did the bombing, it's still stupid.
.

We know where your beef lies. It's anything that the US says. We know quiet well where your coming from thank you

[Ramo]

Stable? Syria started moves to extend the term of Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president. This created lots of discontent, and has joined the Druze led by Jumblatt with the Maronites. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, withdrew from the Lahoud cabinet (as did a Druze, who was also bombed, but survived). Hariri is widely thought to be involved with French and US support for UNSC 1559, which called on Syria to quit Lebanon. Hariri was clearly a potential leader of a post-occupation Lebanon. Syria was clearly feeling under stress, not to mention being rather unhappy with an Israel-Pal peace process that leaves them in the cold.

Stable in the sense that there hasn't been very much violence in Lebanese politics for a while.

Hariri was a Syrian client too, mind you. It's just that he objected to ignoring the term-limit of the President in the Lebanese Constitution. Seems like a pretty petty reason for an assassination, and given that hits in Lebanese politics isn't in vogue, I'm more inclined to say that anti-Saudi types did it.

Fear of Bush? With the US army tied up in Iraq, with the US trying to renew relations with Europe, with a US public presumably skeptical of any new adventures, this would be the IDEAL time to take action - show the world , and would be dissidents in Lebanon and elsewhere that US power is hollow, we can kill the most popular pol in Lebanon right in front of his own posh real estate developments, and the US cant do a damned thing.

You certainly dont want to wait, till the balance of forces is less favorable.

You seem to be under the impression that this White House acts rationally...

[lord of the mark]

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Ramo

Stable? Syria started moves to extend the term of Lahoud, the pro-Syrian president. This created lots of discontent, and has joined the Druze led by Jumblatt with the Maronites. Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, withdrew from the Lahoud cabinet (as did a Druze, who was also bombed, but survived). Hariri is widely thought to be involved with French and US support for UNSC 1559, which called on Syria to quit Lebanon. Hariri was clearly a potential leader of a post-occupation Lebanon. Syria was clearly feeling under stress, not to mention being rather unhappy with an Israel-Pal peace process that leaves them in the cold.

Stable in the sense that there hasn't been very much violence in Lebanese politics for a while.

Hariri was a Syrian client too, mind you. It's just that he objected to ignoring the term-limit of the President in the Lebanese Constitution. Seems like a pretty petty reason for an assassination, and given that hits in Lebanese politics isn't in vogue, I'm more inclined to say that anti-Saudi types did it.

Its your own loyalists who you most have to punish when they betray you. and he didnt just object - from what Ive read he played a leading role in encouraging UNSC 1559, a very bad thing from Syrias perspective. As for hits not being in vogue, what about that Druze guy who was attacked in October?

Fear of Bush? With the US army tied up in Iraq, with the US trying to renew relations with Europe, with a US public presumably skeptical of any new adventures, this would be the IDEAL time to take action - show the world , and would be dissidents in Lebanon and elsewhere that US power is hollow, we can kill the most popular pol in Lebanon right in front of his own posh real estate developments, and the US cant do a damned thing.

You certainly dont want to wait, till the balance of forces is less favorable.

You seem to be under the impression that this White House acts rationally...

Even if you think Bush is super aggressive, all the more reason not to wait till Bush is in a stronger position.

Of course IF more folks than just the US take this seriously, than it does look like a bad move on Syrias part. Which is why the French push for an investigation is important.


And should be supported, i might add.

[Jaakko]

Originally posted by Sprayber


We know where your beef lies. It's anything that the US says. We know quiet well where your coming from thank you

I also have no respect for mindless cheerleaders like yourself. Face it dumbasses, the Bush admin jumped the shark to engage in empty posturing. For ****'s sake, nobody knows who did it yet.

[Ramo]

Its your own loyalists who you most have to punish when they betray you. and he didnt just object - from what Ive read he played a leading role in encouraging UNSC 1559, a very bad thing from Syrias perspective.

I'm not saying that Syria doesn't have a motive. Clearly they do (as do a lot of others). But I'm not certain that they would risk such a high-profile assassination given that situation.

As for hits not being in vogue, what about that Druze guy who was attacked in October?

I don't remember that. What happened?

And should be supported, i might add.

Absolutely.

[lord of the mark]

The previous assasination.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2...tm?POE=NEWISVA

[Ramo]

Found this statement by Hariri interesting:

Hariri, who was in Paris when informed about the attack, urged Lebanese to "thwart all attempts to stir up sedition and dissension."

"The criminal and condemned attempt to assassinate ... Hamadeh comes in the context of these (sedition) attempts," Hariri said in a statement released by his office.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Found this statement by Hariri interesting:

Hariri, who was in Paris when informed about the attack, urged Lebanese to "thwart all attempts to stir up sedition and dissension."

"The criminal and condemned attempt to assassinate ... Hamadeh comes in the context of these (sedition) attempts," Hariri said in a statement released by his office.

Yup, well Hamadeh had just left the govt, while Hariri was still in it. No one has said Hariri wasnt a player. You dont get to be real estate billionaire, much less to make things happen in the govt of a place like Lebanon, without being one.