Open Iraqi election thread

[Ramo]

Interesting Zogby survey:

Iraq’s Sunday elections will be held against a backdrop of deep division between the country’s ethnic groups, with an overwhelming majority of Sunni Arabs refusing to vote in the January 30 elections, a new Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International poll finds. The poll also finds majorities of both Iraq’s Shiites and Sunnis calling for a rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from their soil. Zogby International polled 805 Iraqi adults from January 19 to 23, 2005 on behalf of television broadcaster Abu Dhabi TV. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The survey, to be released at 5 p.m. ET on Abu Dhabi Television, found three-quarters (76%) of Sunni Arabs say they definitely will not vote in the January 30 elections, while just 9% say they are likely to vote. A majority of Shiites (80%) say they are likely to vote or definitely will vote, as are a smaller majority of Kurds (57%).

Majorities of both Sunni Arabs (82%) and Shiites (69%) also favor U.S. forces withdrawing either immediately or after an elected government is in place.

The poll also found that of Iraq’s ethnic and religious groups, only the Kurds believe the U.S. will “help” Iraq over the next five years, while half (49%) of Shiites and a majority (64%) of Sunni Arabs believe the U.S. will “hurt” Iraq.

“There are deep divisions that exist—divisions that are so deep and pronounced that this election, instead of bringing people together, may very well tear them apart,” said Dr. James Zogby, an analyst for Zogby International and host of Abu Dhabi TV’s “Viewpoint”. “The closest thing to this in America isn’t red and blue states. It’s probably the election of 1860.”

The poll also finds that, while a majority of Shiites (84%) and Kurds (64%) wish to hold the elections Sunday as planned, Sunni Arabs overwhelmingly favor delaying the vote (62%).

“What’s truly alarming isn’t the number of Sunni Arabs who want to delay Sunday’s vote,” Zogby said. “What’s alarming is that more than half—53% in this survey—believe that ongoing attacks in Iraq are a legitimate form of resistance. With this group already boycotting the election, this makes for a very violent combination.”

“Only the Kurds seem to favor a continued U.S. presence, and are likely to outright reject violent resistance,” Zogby added.

The survey also asked Iraqis which nations they believed it was possible to foster improved relations with. While a majority of Iraqis believe relations can be improved between Iraq and neighbors Kuwait, Turkey, and Iran, all ethnic and religious groups overwhelmingly rejected improving relations with the State of Israel.

Iraqis do not desire to remake their country in the image of neighboring Iran, however. Three-in-five (59%) favor a system where citizens are allowed to practice their own religion, while one-in-three (34%) would prefer an Islamic government.

The survey was conducted throughout Iraq, including the cities of Baghdad, Hilla, Karbala and Kirkuk, as well as the Mohafazat (provinces) of Diala and Anbar.

Abu Dhabi TV/Zogby International conducted interviews of 805 Iraqis. Field work dates were from 1/19/05 thru 1/23/05. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Slight weights were added to education, ethnicity, religion, gender to more accurately reflect the population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=957

If this poll is accurate, and only 9% of Sunni Arabs will vote, and 53% support the insurgency, well, that's not good news....

[DanS]

Well, the vote should begin in about a half hour, I guess. Good luck to the Iraqis.

[DanS]

and only 9% of Sunni Arabs will vote

To be honest with you, I don't care much if the Sunni Arabs vote. They're only 20% of the population and shouldn't be catered to. If they want to be represented, they need to vote. They need to eat their spinach and accept a reasonable portion of the power available. That's the bottom line.

And Zogby suggesting that the vote in 1860 shouldn't have been held is rather undemocratic and unbecoming of him. We've held elections uninterrupted since the beginning, even during the Civil War, and we're a much stronger nation because of it.

[Winston]

Yes, good luck to the Iraqis. And Happy Election Day. It should be a day for celebration, like it was for the approx. 9,000 Iraqis here in Denmark who voted yesterday and the day before. The waited in line with both Iraqi and Danish flags, and some had brought drums to get the celebratory mood going. They were so proud and satisfied that they got to cast their vote, even the hour-long waits for some of them didn't spoil the atmosphere.

But then nobody was shooting at them or otherwise intimidating their newly gained democratic rights.

I hope it goes well in Iraq itself today.

[Solomwi]

Originally posted by lord of the mark

It really kills a joke to explain it, no? I freely admit it wasnt much good to begin with, though

I got a good chuckle out of it, at least.

[Shi Huangdi]

Here's hoping that Ramo and Zogby are just as correct about the Iraqi election as they were about the US election!

[DanS]

Looks like turnout was reasonably high.

Amid very tight security...

An Iraqi police officer checks a donkey, pulling a disabled man on a cart, before allowing it to enter a polling station in the country's second largest city of Basra, January 30, 2005. Insurgents unleashed a wave of bloody attacks on Iraq (news - web sites)'s historic election on Sunday, killing at least 22 people and wounding dozens in suicide bombings and mortar strikes at polling stations across the country. REUTERS/Atef Hassan

Damn it, I never knew the democrats had infiltrated Iraq already!

[DanS]

Alexander Horse's worst nightmare.

An Iraqi woman cries tears of joy after casting her vote, outside a polling station in the holy city of Najaf, January 30, 2005. Insurgents threatening an election day bloodbath killed at least 22 people Sunday in a string of bombings and mortar attacks on polling stations in Iraq (news - web sites)'s first multi-party ballot in half a century. REUTERS/Faleh Kheiber

I'm happy that my taxmoney went toward this lady's happiness.

[Heresson]

Originally posted by DanS


To be honest with you, I don't care much if the Sunni Arabs vote. They're only 20% of the population and shouldn't be catered to. If they want to be represented, they need to vote.

The problem is that if they do not vote, without representation they will never accept democratic regime.

[DanS]

They can vote at any time they wish. They will have another opportunity to vote at the end of the year. Why should we kowtow to a rejectionist minority?

Screw 'em. If they want to raise hell instead of voting, then when they shoot at us, we'll shoot back. If they shoot at Iraqi National Guard, then I hope that the ING will shoot back.

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by DanS
Screw 'em.

Typical words of failed policies.

It's pretty hard to ignore a part of the population that has grown violent, when it lives where the capital and plenty of economic interests are located. You can't exactly dismiss them like provincial rebels.

[Shi Huangdi]

Yep, turnout at about 72%, death toll under 50. This is a great day for IRaq, and a firm statement by the Iraqi people showing that they favor a democracy.

[DanS]

Grown violent? The minority Sunni Arabs have been violent for decades in suppressing the majority. If they don't accept their rightful piece of the power pie, then I have no sympathy for them as the majority comes into its rightful place and has to put down a rebellion.

My vote is with the majority, who have been patient through all of their troubles and despite it all haven't suppressed the Sunni Arab minority. If there's anybody to whom we should kowtow, it's them. As an average American taxpayer, I have spent my $2,000 for them.

Besides, I have already stated that partition wouldn't be the worst thing to happen. And if Iraq is partitioned, the Sunni Arabs lose big time.

[Shi Huangdi]

This is a touching event in a way, reminding you of how precious democracy is. It puts it into perspective all the people in the USA who moaned and whined about rain or long lines and used them as an excuse to not vote, whereas in Iraq people risked death to vote in hopes of a future of living in a country where the people are soverign.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Yep, turnout at about 72%, death toll under 50.

How will MOBIUS cream himself over those numbers?