Open Iraqi election thread

[lord of the mark]

Lets try to keep it to events in IRAQ, NOW, not to opinions about Bush, WMDS, the evil French, or whatever.

My comment on another thread:

recent polls suggest an overall turnout of around two thirds, ranging from just over 30% in the Sunni Arab areas, to over 90% in Kurdistan. I expect turnout will be close to zero in parts of Anbar province, and parts of Mosul. Sunni turnout will be higher in areas like Diyala prov. Big question will be turnout in Baghdad, as an indicator of security in the capital. Ive heard projections of two thirds turnout, but that would include the overwhelming Shia sections of east Baghdad.


Ive seen a poll quoted indicating likely results as 42% for the Iraqi Alliance (the Sistani-SCIRI-Dawa-Chalabi list) 22% for the Kurdish alliance, and 20% for the Iraqi List (the list of PM Allawi). Scattered votes for everyone else - including the Communists, the Monarchists, some Sunni Groups, minor ethnic groups, secular democratic groups, etc.

Based on that it would be mathematically possible for the IA to form a coalition without the Kurds or Allawi, but I think that would be politically very difficult. Similarly, Allawi and the Kurds could try to freeze Sistani out, but that would be explosive, and almost impossible.
One possibility would be a broad coalition of the three main forces. Depends how much bad blood the Shias have for Allawi and some of the ex-Baathists in his administration. Theres an excellent chance that a coalition of the IA and the Kurds could freeze Allawi out, but I dont know if the Kurds would be comfortable with that.

[Sava]

I heard there are 111 candidates on the ballot for PM. How in the hell do Iraqi's know who to vote for?

International election monitors will be in Amman, Jordan. That's nice.

My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

[Whaleboy]

What will this election actually achieve, whichever way it goes?

[Sava]

Originally posted by Whaleboy
What will this election actually achieve, whichever way it goes?

FREEDOM, DUH!

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Sava
I heard there are 111 candidates on the ballot for PM. How in the hell do Iraqi's know who to vote for?

LOTM - there are too many parties I think. The big question for most iraqis will be to vote for the ins or the outs, and if the outs, whether to vote for Sistanis list or not.

International election monitors will be in Amman, Jordan. That's nice.

LOTM - apparently some int monitors WILL be in Iraq. There will also be plenty of Iraqi monitors, and plenty of international press present.


My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

You think Allawi will get more than 40% of the vote?

[Whaleboy]

Sava

I am actually interested in what relevance each different candidate will have. The whole Sunni and Shi'ite thing lost me as soon as I felt my anti-war stance was vindicated (which was a LONG time ago). Obviously the idea that democracy will bring stability and security is ludicrous and delusional.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Whaleboy
What will this election actually achieve, whichever way it goes?

A new govt I expect. Whether this will directly aid in the struggle against the insurgency, Im not sure. The ways it might are subtle, and are likely to drag our discussion away from the elections to the topic of the insurgency. I suspect we're no more than a few posts away from "insurgents are patriots" "you commie terrorist antisemite" "Bush = Hitler" and other things weve all heard before. For now Id rather not discuss strategy in the war - id rather follow the elections on their own terms.

[Whaleboy]

Indeed, but I don't think it's seperable from the background of insurgency and ****age, and I fail to see how democracy as a political process is going to help things, as opposed to hinder Iraq in the medium/long term, if not short.

[Ramo]

My prediction is (assuming minimal fraud) UIA gets a governing majority (or close to one - if not, it can always form a coalition with i.e Sadrist lists). If there's a lot of fraud, obviously Allawi's going to come out on top.

As for the problems with this election process, it's pretty much a joke, with the top-down party lists, candidates (on the lists) announced just a couple weeks before the eelction, no real campaigning (excepting, i.e. the Communist Party, and those operating in particularly safe areas of Iraq), threat of violence at voting booths (6 polling sites were just blown up yesterday), etc., etc.

[DanS]

I predict that Sistani's list will get a huge victory on the back of all of the out-of-the-way hamlets in the south that have been untouched by the insurgency.

Turnout should be higher than some suggest.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Whaleboy
Sava

I am actually interested in what relevance each different candidate will have. The whole Sunni and Shi'ite thing lost me as soon as I felt my anti-war stance was vindicated (which was a LONG time ago).

Well first its not simply Sunni vs shia - there are several multiethnic parties, and even the so called Shia list has Kurds and Sunni arabs.

As far as I know none of the major parties is calling for an immediate US pullout, though i may be wrong about the Communists, and the anti-US Iraqi Islami Party is on the ballot, though its called for a boycott (though they seem to have relented in one province)

The allawi party is clearly opposed to setting a timetable for US withdrawl, as are the Kurds, I think. The Sistani party HAD called for a timetable, but seems to have backed off that in recent days. I beleive several other parties DO call for a timetable.

The Sistani party calls for some official recognition for Islam - its not clear how far they intend to go, esp in matters of family and inheritance law. The Kurds, Communists, and Allawi supporters, and several smaller parties, take a more secular stance.

The Allawi govt reversed some of the US's early debaathification moves - the Sistani party and the Kurds are likely to go back to debaathification.

The communists support leftist economic policies. The Kurds lean more to market measures, though their parties have socialist roots.

Allawi has been supported by the US State Department, CIA, and apparently be Condi Rice. Some neocons (most overtly Jim Hoagland of the WaPo) think the Sistani party would be an improvement over Allawi. This has much to do with opinions on debaathification, and overtures to "moderate" sunnis.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
My prediction is (assuming minimal fraud) UIA gets a governing majority (or close to one - if not, it can always form a coalition with i.e Sadrist lists).

LOTM - is there a Sadrist list - seems Sadr has gone back and forth between supporting the SIstani list, and calling for a boycott (and no, dont ask me to make sense Sadrs actions)

If there's a lot of fraud, obviously Allawi's going to come out on top.

As for the problems with this election process, it's pretty much a joke, with the top-down party lists, candidates (on the lists) announced just a couple weeks before the eelction, no real campaigning (excepting, i.e. the Communist Party, and those operating in particularly safe areas of Iraq), threat of violence at voting booths (6 polling sites were just blown up yesterday), etc., etc.

[Whaleboy]

Too confusing, I'll stick with blackness, doom and exploding Shi'ites. More comforting somehow...

[GePap]

This election leads to another interim government as the legislature writes the permanent constituion, and once that is done the government will be voted on (say 2006).

I think the Sistani list will dominate the elections, not Allawi. The big mess coming up, besides the continuing insurgency, will be when the constitution is being writen and the level of Kurdish autonomy will be chosed, plus borders of that area.

[Ramo]

Actually lotm, setting a timetable for withdrawal is one of the fundamental planks of the UIA's platform, and Hakim (of SCIRI, leader of UIA) said he favored doing that just a few days ago.