Open Iraqi election thread

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by DanS
I predict that Sistani's list will get a huge victory on the back of all of the out-of-the-way hamlets in the south that have been untouched by the insurgency.

Turnout should be higher than some suggest.

I dont know - seems SCIRI and Dawa have lost some support in the URBAN areas in the south - apparently theyre blamed for the way theyve run Basra (corrupt, and too fundie for a secular town) Allawi party, and the ICP may have a shot at taking over the provincial govt there.

[Zoid]

Iraqi elections? Hmpff, humbug I say. Just an excuse to put a puppet loyal to Washington in charge of Iraq so that Bush et al can claim that freedom and democracy has finally come to the Iraqi people.

[Ramo]

LOTM - is there a Sadrist list - seems Sadr has gone back and forth between supporting the SIstani list, and calling for a boycott (and no, dont ask me to make sense Sadrs actions)

By a Sadrist list, I mean a party with a Sadrist ideology, not a list lead by Sadr.

[Ramo]

Reagarding the Sadrist list:

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-19/1104907387307830.xml

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Actually lotm, setting a timetable for withdrawal is one of the fundamental planks of the UIA's platform, and Hakim (of SCIRI, leader of UIA) said he favored doing that just a few days ago.

this is from the int. Herald trib


"BAGHDAD In a surprise press conference Sunday, leaders of the Shiite-dominated coalition that is expected to prevail in national elections sought to dispel fears that they are under the secret sway of Iran, or have any desire to create an Islamic theocracy.
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Speaking in offices that were damaged by a car bomb just six days before, leaders of the United Iraqi Alliance urged disaffected Sunnis to join in the elections for a National Assembly, scheduled for Jan. 30.
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They also said that if their coalition gains power it would not demand the immediate withdrawal of American troops, but would wait instead for a stronger Iraqi military.
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Insurgents on Sunday continued their unrelenting campaign to demolish the fledgling Iraqi forces, killing 18 members of the national guard and one civilian with a suicide car bomb near the town of Balad, north of Baghdad.
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"Our group believes in sharing power with all Iraqi factions," Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the Shiite cleric who heads the election slate of the powerful alliance, said at the news conference in Baghdad.
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"We have rejected the idea of a sectarian regime and we believe that Iraq is for all Iraqis." Appearing with Hakim at the briefing was Ahmed Chalabi, a secular Shiite and former exile who ranks high in the alliance slate of candidates. Chalabi said he had just returned from Tehran, where he told Iranian leaders that they must not interfere with Iraq's elections.
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The charge of secret Iranian influence over the alliance, which is led by two huge Shiite religious parties, has been voiced by the king of Jordan and some prominent Sunni politicians. These critics fear that as the Shiite religious groups assert power, Iraq could be steered toward an Iranian-style theocracy.
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Hakim, like many Shiite leaders, lived in exile in Iran during the reign of Saddam Hussein. He heads the largest single Shiite party, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, and enjoys the blessing of Ayatollah Sistani, Iraq's most revered cleric.
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Hakim and Sistani have repeatedly said they do not want clerical control of government, but suspicions run wild among Iraq's Sunnis, who are anxious about the prospect of losing their historic dominance in Iraq.
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Chalabi said in an interview that he told senior Iranian officials, including President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, three things: "First, we do not want any interference in the Iraqi elections; second, the alliance is not about an Islamic republic or a theocratic state, it is about democracy and pluralism, and third, we will need American forces to be in Iraq for the foreseeable future." The Iranian leaders accepted these points, he said. "They understand that the situation in Iraq is very different from Iran," he said.
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Chalabi and other alliance officials pledged that their coalition will not accept any election money from Iran.
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Chalabi said he had traveled to Iran as head of his own party, the Iraqi National Congress. But his rare, prominent appearance beside Hakim suggested that he has gained a strong position within the Shiite coalition.
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A onetime favorite of the Pentagon, Chalabi last year saw a rival exile, Ayad Allawi, take over as interim prime minister. He fell out of favor with the Americans, who asserted that he gave sensitive secrets to Iran. But he has cultivated ties with Shiite groups, and political experts here say that the mainstream clerics now taking center stage appear to value Chalabi's wide international contacts and political experience.
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When American occupation forces will leave Iraq is one of the touchiest political issues. The Shiite clerics know that many of their supporters would like to see foreign troops leave sooner rather than later, but they also know that U.S. protection is needed to hold elections and create a Shiite-led government.
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[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Reagarding the Sadrist list:
http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index....7387307830.xml

i wonder how much appeal such a list has without open endorsement from Sadr - his movement is about personal appeal as much as ideology, I think.

[Winston]

13,000 exiled Iraqis can vote here in Denmark, and the ones I've seen interviewed in the media have all been very excited about this opportunity to help influence the future of their country.

They've said they were grateful for the coalition ultimately providing them with democratic rights, and making it so that there were more options on the ballot than a simple "Yes" or "No" to Saddam - and that it didn't have their name and full address at the top...

[Ramo]

Chalabi isn't exactly the most important guy in the UIA list.

From the Guardian 1/23:

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
As a matter of principle it is very clear that no nation accepts an occupation. It should be the Iraqi government that sets a timetable for the withdrawal of multinational forces. The Iraqi government and the occupation forces should cooperate together to find a suitable timetable in which they can work to have Iraq clear of any occupation forces.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1396031,00.html

The article's a good read, BTW.

[Ramo]

i wonder how much appeal such a list has without open endorsement from Sadr - his movement is about personal appeal as much as ideology, I think.

I'm not sure that's true (though he is certainly important in driving the movement). The movement after all survived the death of Sadr the Elder and a couple decades of Ba'athist repression. I don't think that a mere personality cult could do that. Anyways, I'd expect it to pick up a few percent, at least.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
Chalabi isn't exactly the most important guy in the UIA list.

From the Guardian 1/23:

Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
As a matter of principle it is very clear that no nation accepts an occupation. It should be the Iraqi government that sets a timetable for the withdrawal of multinational forces. The Iraqi government and the occupation forces should cooperate together to find a suitable timetable in which they can work to have Iraq clear of any occupation forces.

Well I dont see a problem with that - the new Iraqi Defense Minister, Interior Minister, PM meets with Casey and Negroponte. They all agree that that it would be great to have a timetable. They then agree that this depends on the status of Iraqi forces. They discuss this status. They estimate they will need X Iraqi troops at Y level of efficiency before they can withdraw Q US forces. They agree that when this will be reached is unknowable. In lieu of that, they agree on timetables for training spefic groups of Iraqi forces.

As for Chalabis position, of course hes less important than Hakim. But he made his statements sitting next to Hakim.

[Ramo]

1. I think he clearly said, a timetable for withdrawal, rather than a timetable for training troops.
2. I do see a problem with that. Timetables aren't always conducive to peace (see India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, etc.).

OTOH, it's unlikely that the Sunni Arabs will stop their violence without an immediate timetable.

I'm conflicted over what to do.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by Sava
I heard there are 111 candidates on the ballot for PM. How in the hell do Iraqi's know who to vote for?

International election monitors will be in Amman, Jordan. That's nice.

My prediction: this is a sham, Allawi wins... is US puppet.

There were probably that many on the recall race in California.

A sham? Allawi isn't a US puppet. US puppet this, US puppet that.. is that all you frauds can say?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by Ramo
I don't know if there's no problem with that. Timetables aren't always conducive to stopping extremists (see India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine, etc.)

thats my point - hakim doesnt demand a timetable - he asks that the Iraqi govt and the coalition should cooperate together to find one - to me that means starting the process of trying to determine a timetable - thinking TOGETHER about the criteria, strategies etc. NOT setting a date in stone.

[Last Conformist]

Originally posted by Winston
13,000 exiled Iraqis can vote here in Denmark, and the ones I've seen interviewed in the media have all been very excited about this opportunity to help influence the future of their country.

I read in Metro this morning that Sweden, of all places, is the country with the most expat Iraqi voters - about 31k. IIRC, the interviewed ones were both going to vote for Allawi on the grounds that Sistani's bunch isn't secular enough.

[Ramo]

As I said, he did say that he wants a timetable, not a tentative plan that could be changed on the whim of the gov't or coalition.