ARTICLE: Cloudy Skies Knock Out Anti-Missile Defense!

[Urban Ranger]

No, make it rain over the missile shield sites.

[DRoseDARs]

The United States was "developing" nuclear weapons until about 1/200 of a second before we detonated our first working nuke.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by DRoseDARs
The United States was "developing" nuclear weapons until about 1/200 of a second before we detonated our first working nuke.

Yeah, good rebuttal

[Q Classic]

Deterrence requires that both sides are thinking rationally. It also requires that neither side feels the situation is hopeless.

*nods*

In the case of NK, I am not sure that Kim Jong Il is completely rational. He might miscalculate and think that China would support him and therefore that the US would not dare retaliate. He might think that we are bogged down in Iraq and can't retaliate against him. Furthermore, the NK economy is disastrous, and there is a terrible famine. Kim Jong Il may feel that the situation is so bad that he has nothing to lose by invading South Korea.

and kill off the one country that is, for no good reason other than self-interest, supporting it? especially in light of the fact that all moves the north has done recently has been to solidify and tighten their control over their nation; why would they imperil their own power? their fanatic in their belief of the power of their nation, but not to the point of martyrdom.
the fact that nkorea is not making any moves towards invading the south is proof enough that the deterrent, nuclear or not, is working, no? especially in light of the fact that the skorean army is strong enough these days to not buckle as they did in the 50's.
nkorea's rhetoric about nuclear warfare is no different from the ussr's constant threats of burying the americans and the west because history is on the side of the soviets. have they made any recent moves towards launching a nuclear missile towards us? not recently.
plus, your contention is that deterrence requires both sides to think rationally and not have a sense of helplessness. abm, which would render nkorea's nuclear arsenal worthless, would only exacerbate any sense of hopelessness on nkorea's part.
do i think abm is a good idea? yes, if it worked. do i think it's worth shortchanging other programs with better returns for our country? no.

It seems to me to be a good idea to have some kind of defense system just in case deterrence doesn't work. If there is uncertainty and a chance that deterrence might fail, why gamble with the lives of millions of Americans?

this is nothing more than the "better than nothing" argument.
it seems to me to be a good idea to have some kind of social security system just in case people lose their jobs. if there is uncertainty and a chance that employment might vanish, why gamble with the lives of millions of Americans?

[Sava]

BWHAHAHAHA THE PUBLICS MONEY WASTED ON KEEPING DEFENSE CONTRACTOR'S STOCK HIGH

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Arrian
Kim is a bit of a whackjob, I'll grant that. Hey, the guy's favorite film is Gone with the Wind. But I don't think he's THAT crazy... especially while he has something to lose (this includes his "legacy" and other things that will outlive him, so just putting together a Kim-on-deathbed scenario doesn't cut it). On this we may just have to agree to disagree.

I simply do not see a ICBM threat that is not effectively countered by MAD. I *do* see nuclear weapon threats that a ABM system will do absolutely nothing to stop. Accordingly, IMO, while an ABM system is a nice thing for the wishlist, I'd give it much lower priority than it currently has.

-Arrian

I can see that, Arrian.

However, I am also aware of times when dictators have bequeathed death and ultimate destruction to their own peoples as a legacy.

I see no reason to think that Kim would never do such a thing. MAD worked with a system that had groups at the top. The party elite and the Politbureau proved themselves capable of removing leaders even if we do not reguard that system to have been free or particularly democratic. It was still a mad plan for peace. I don't agree that chancing it on the whims of dictators with big firecrackers would be the wisest choice.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger

Good rebuttal. Now try something more solid than pure speculation.

It is the very nature of these discussions about things that haven't happened yet to be speculative.

Do you have something to actually say?

Originally posted by Urban Ranger

Again, you cannot make nuclear warheads without testing them. Nowadays, everybody can detect such tests. So there's no such thing as "secretly preparing."

Why do you say that? How many first tests fail? I would put money on Japanese technology working, the first time. Do you want to put your life on it being impossible that it would?

Originally posted by Urban Ranger

Nope. Any nuclear tests conducted by these countries were quickly known by the outside world.

The first 'test' by Japan would most likely be over several sites in NK, and quite possibly all over the PRC. How much you wanna bet their hasty bombs wouldn't work?

Pure speculation, of course.

[Q Classic]

However, I am also aware of times when dictators have bequeathed death and ultimate destruction to their own peoples as a legacy.

I see no reason to think that Kim would never do such a thing. MAD worked with a system that had groups at the top. The party elite and the Politbureau proved themselves capable of removing leaders even if we do not reguard that system to have been free or particularly democratic. It was still a mad plan for peace. I don't agree that chancing it on the whims of dictators with big firecrackers would be the wisest choice.

I like these assumptions about nkorea. Just curious, what are they based on?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Patroklos
Ever stop to think about why they are deploying it?

Yeah, cuz Raytheon lobbied hard to have the Fed's givem them $20 billion.

Oh I see Che, because it only has a 60% chance of working right now we should just leave all that infrustructure dormant untill it us fully 100%, because god damn it if it isn't 100% it isn't worth a damn.

If it was an actual 60%, I'd say go for it. Hell, if it was 20% I'd say go for it, maybe even 10%. As it is now, it won't work against an actual ICBM attack, since the enemy is highly unlikely to launch the missile near a U.S. tracking station in a trajectory away from the U.S. and with a giant radar balloon saying hit me and no decoys.

As it is now, it's simply $20 billion in waste that could be better spent beefing up our port security.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Q Cubed
I like these assumptions about nkorea. Just curious, what are they based on?

Reports on the system, or lack thereof, where Kim is seen as a Godling of some sort.

Am I wrong? Is there even the slimest of systems? Could Kim be removed by the NK version of Breshnev?

[chequita guevara]

Well, Kim recently decreed that people stop calling him Dear Leader.

Given that he rose to power in a system with a Cult of Personality, it would be impossible for him to begin dismantaling right away and qickly, without being denounced and replaced or simply made into a puppet.

The point, is not that Kim is such a great guy, but that NK is kind of a black box. I think it's irrational to assume that Kim is either rational or irrational. We should assume both at the same time. Schroedinger's dictator.

[notyoueither]

Indeed, assume the worst, especially with concentration camps still in place.

[chequita guevara]

Refugees have an incentive to talk the system down, which doesn't necessarily mean they're wrong. My gut tendency is to assume the worst about NK, and they're definately very creepy.

[Jon Miller]

I cheered for them in the olympics though

Jon Miller
(they got 4th in gymnastics or something like that...

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Schroedinger's dictator.

So is he dead or not?