Will the MMORPG market be flooded?

[Grumbold]

So far the emergence of each new MMORPG has impacted remarkably little on the survivability of the previous ones. Eventually there has to be a saturation point at which they are no longer attracting new customers to the genre or persuading an existing player to open an new game account wjile retaining all their existing ones. So far though all the predictions have proved wrong. I expect to see a large number of the developing MMORPG's cancelled before they go live, but there will still be a considerable number released that will find an audience. When you think of all the countries only now starting to get connected to the web, the potential market is huge by comparison to today.

[FrustratedPoet]

Originally posted by Grumbold
When you think of all the countries only now starting to get connected to the web, the potential market is huge by comparison to today.

Very good point.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Grumbold
When you think of all the countries only now starting to get connected to the web, the potential market is huge by comparison to today.

While this is theoretically true, this has done little for Web-based economy so far.

Consider that a player probably want broadband for online gaming, this won't help in the next few years. Maybe in a couple of decades.

[Victor Galis]

So far the emergence of each new MMORPG has impacted remarkably little on the survivability of the previous ones.

-This is because the potential market (those with broadband, and/or patience and reliable dialup connections) has been increasing dramatically.

Eventually there has to be a saturation point at which they are no longer attracting new customers to the genre or persuading an existing player to open an new game account wjile retaining all their existing ones.

-I'm thinking all of these games will fall apart eventually and be at the very least replaced by a new version.

On a side note, only the lone Hibernian outpost of Caer Berkstead is holding out against the hordes of invading Midgardian warriors (I love the fact that you can check up on the status of the game without logging in)

[tniem]

Originally posted by Grumbold
Eventually there has to be a saturation point at which they are no longer attracting new customers to the genre or persuading an existing player to open an new game account wjile retaining all their existing ones.

One thing is that when it reaches that saturation point, there is a chance, maybe a good chance, that players of old games will move on to newer ones. The older games that have already made back production costs lose customers but it does not matter to them. Because they already made their money and so it does not matter that gamers are leaving. Meanwhile the new games need the old customers to fund their developement. So it works for them as well.

I am just advocating that there is a chance that the market can sustain the games being produced without the catsotrophe that everyone is predicting.

[Sarxis]

It is still true that Singleplayer PC games still out-populate MP games by a wide margin.

And that analysis doesn't even include The Sims.

[Grumbold]

Originally posted by tniem
I am just advocating that there is a chance that the market can sustain the games being produced without the catsotrophe that everyone is predicting.

I agree. Some of the less well thought out attempts to jump on the bandwagon are disappearing before being released to the public but every game launched so far (that I am aware of) has proven attractive enough to support several servers and keep the company in business.

I'm a serial MMORPG hopper, having played nothing for more than 12 months before going on to another game or perhaps hopping back to play an old one for a bit of nostalgia. I have met very few players who have solidly commited to a single game for years - those that have I normally find have played every class combination under the sun and kept things fresh like that. We will know the market has got cutthroat when the first of the old games draws the curtains and shuts down for good. The earliest might even be AC, since it is likely to be the first one to release its second version.

[Victor Galis]

The earliest might even be AC, since it is likely to be the first one to release its second version.

-AC?

[RonHiler]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
-AC?

Asheron's Call. Which is by far the best MMO game in existance, old or new, but which has been so badly mis-managed by MicroSoft marketing that it's always at the bottom of the list of the "big three".

I'll be interested to see what happens to the server populations when AC2 arrives, not to mention SWG.

I'm a little wary of the hype around SWG. Its very reminiscent of the hype that existed around AO and DAoC, both of which started out as *terrible* games (especially AO, in terms of buggyness), and haven't really gotten much better since. I revisited AO not too long ago, and there is *still* nothing to do. It's like a glorified chat room.

The stregth of AC is that there is a *ton* of content built up over years of free monthly "patches" which add new quests, functionality, etc to the game every month. A new MMO cannot compete with that. And the EQ and UO model of releasing expansion packs every six months or so doesn't keep up (though it makes a lot more money for the design house, heh). It's the monthly updates that make AC such a great MMO, and (assuming they use the same model) will also make AC2 very strong (after you give them a few months to add content and fix the inevitable major problems).

If the double punch of AC2 and SWG doesn't kill AC (and IMO it won't), it still has a long life ahead of it. UO is the one that's in trouble right now, if you ask me

[Victor Galis]

DAoC used to have weekly patches, but they seem to have slowed down now. Still the game is a lot better than when I got it, and there's a lot of promise to this new PvP server.

Any idea of what the server populations are like right now for the big games?

[Grumbold]

Its a question of personal taste. The principle thing I disliked about Asherons Call was the dynamic content because unless you were riding the crest of the player population and playing constantly much of the new plot related content would open, run and then close without you getting a look in. All too often I would log on during prime UK playing time to find that the big event had showed up and been killed/solved/looted during peak US time while I was sleeping like a baby.

[RonHiler]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
DAoC used to have weekly patches, but they seem to have slowed down now. Still the game is a lot better than when I got it, and there's a lot of promise to this new PvP server.

Yeah, but the patches there were bug fixes, while ACs are content adders. Not the same thing I played DAoC when it first came out. I stopped after a couple of weeks because the cities were slide shows for me. Nothing will make me stop playing a game faster than it going all unresponsive and slide-showy Is it better now?

Any idea of what the server populations are like right now for the big games?

No idea. They don't, in general, publish them. AC does, and they tend to run about 12,000 people at a time at peak times (on seven (IIRC) servers).

EQ runs much higher than that, from what I understand, while UO runs a bit less.

As for DAoC and AO, your guess is as good as mine. AO shows server pops when you log in (or they did a few months ago when I was there last), but the numbers always seemed totally absurd, so I'm not sure if they're right (if they are, they're beating EQ by a lot, which I'm pretty sure is not true).

Originally posted by Grumbold
Its a question of personal taste. The principle thing I disliked about Asherons Call was the dynamic content because unless you were riding the crest of the player population and playing constantly much of the new plot related content would open, run and then close without you getting a look in. All too often I would log on during prime UK playing time to find that the big event had showed up and been killed/solved/looted during peak US time while I was sleeping like a baby.

Hmmm, not sure I follow that, Grumbold. Content doesn't, in general, close in AC. They've retired a *very* few quests (four or five total), but, unless you have some hangup about being the *first* to run a quest , you can always do the quests whenever you feel like it. The first large quest, "The Sword of Lost Light" was introduced in Beta testing, and it's still there for anyone who wants to do it. Almost all of the other quests are the same way.

But you're right. It is a matter of taste. A lot of people really like EQ. I hated it Still, I think AC deserves a lot more recognition than it gets, although to be sure, it has its share of problems *cough*macroers*cough*

[Victor Galis]

The principle thing I disliked about Asherons Call was the dynamic content because unless you were riding the crest of the player population and playing constantly much of the new plot related content would open, run and then close without you getting a look in. All too often I would log on during prime UK playing time to find that the big event had showed up and been killed/solved/looted during peak US time while I was sleeping like a baby.

-Hurray for 3am relic raids

Yeah, but the patches there were bug fixes, while ACs are content adders. Not the same thing I played DAoC when it first came out. I stopped after a couple of weeks because the cities were slide shows for me. Nothing will make me stop playing a game faster than it going all unresponsive and slide-showy Is it better now?

-They've added plenty of content. Indeed, they went through a content-adding phase before they started messing around with the concept of a PvP server and that ate up all of their time.

No idea. They don't, in general, publish them. AC does, and they tend to run about 12,000 people at a time at peak times (on seven (IIRC) servers).

EQ runs much higher than that, from what I understand, while UO runs a bit less.

As for DAoC and AO, your guess is as good as mine. AO shows server pops when you log in (or they did a few months ago when I was there last), but the numbers always seemed totally absurd, so I'm not sure if they're right (if they are, they're beating EQ by a lot, which I'm pretty sure is not true).

-Current server population for DAoC is 5338 (mind you it's 6:40am EDT on a Tuesday). I've seen total server populations in the US hit about 25,000 before. 18 total servers.

[faded glory]

Well most MMORPG's unfortunately are time consuming and addictive. The whole MMORPG stage is more of a lifestyle then an actual game. Alot of people will spend 20 hours a day on those things.


I agree, there seem to be lots of MMORPG's and not enough playerbase.

But there are really good normal games out there.

[Victor Galis]

Well most MMORPG's unfortunately are time consuming and addictive. The whole MMORPG stage is more of a lifestyle then an actual game. Alot of people will spend 20 hours a day on those things.

-I know all about that Oy... being away from computer games for 2 months hurts.