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Well, I've got 2 1/2 months left before my contract expires. (If I can fly into Toronto with the SARS nonsense)
Please Bush, don't blow us up before I leave.
I'm surprised by how calm the SKs are, with young kim threatening 'war at any moment' and doing the 'my words are backed with NUCLEAR WEAPONS' thing. But then I remember they've grown up with NK's constant whining, and refugee shooting, and border violations, and spies, and terrorist groups (like the group of pro-NK student radicals that like to burn things and people), and labor/death camps, and unprovoked sinking of naval vessels, and general *******-ism.
Then I remember they've grown up with it, it's 'business as usual'. Even the nukes really aren't news, since the late 80s they've long suspects 1 or 2 lying around. The ridiculous, probably 40% functional 2 stage ICBM they have is a little more worrying (they also have a few subs, nothing too threatening though).
So, what should be done?
I've seen a few options kicked around:
1. UN sanctions: great, more NKs will die, the US will continue to improve its image as the third worlds friend, and the regime will be 'legitimized'.
2. Get China to 'do something'
3. Hit Yongbyon (the visible plant you can watch live on the internet via satellite if you want)
4. General strategic air campaign, hit everything military, HAARM all their ancient radars. (almost certain to be war)
5. War. Hit 'em hard, fast, and smart. Try to 'do an Iraq' and just hope that the NK officers are so 'shocked and awed' and don't like Kim enough that 'they call a war and nobody shows up'.
6. Corollary to 'hit Yongbyon': get out defectors from the nuke prog, find out under which mountain the nukes really are, send some cruise missiles to sail right into the bunkers blast doors and take them out. Less chance of causing a war?
7. Get China and SK and Russia to 'do something' besides 'issue joint statements'.
8. Give them the security guarantee in whatever language they want, unilaterally (from US pov). It would lessen the war-monger image.
9. Negotiate a security guarantee conditional on stopping nuke production, UN inspections, which the US has declared futile and useless.
10. A USSR like arrangement: hotline, MAD. Just accept the status quo. Eventually, Kim will die and North Korea will transform because the NKs will transform it, just like Russia (too much; I'm imagining NE asias newest criminal empires)
11. Call the (possible) 'bluff': Give them a deadline for stopping production, handing over existing nukes, and US led inspections (with a veneer of SK and Japan for 'credibility'). If you don't, tell them the US will unilaterally strike and that the US 'reserves the right' (popular US govmn't phrase nowadays) to answer nukes with nukes, presumeably starting with one on a CM targeting Kim's ass in whatever bunker/armoured train he's hiding out in.
12. Keep talking forever, eventually nothing will happen which is what we all want. Endless counter-threats like the Cold War, that 'brinksmanship' BS I hated so much.
What to do???
Please Bush, don't blow us up before I leave.
I'm surprised by how calm the SKs are, with young kim threatening 'war at any moment' and doing the 'my words are backed with NUCLEAR WEAPONS' thing. But then I remember they've grown up with NK's constant whining, and refugee shooting, and border violations, and spies, and terrorist groups (like the group of pro-NK student radicals that like to burn things and people), and labor/death camps, and unprovoked sinking of naval vessels, and general *******-ism.
Then I remember they've grown up with it, it's 'business as usual'. Even the nukes really aren't news, since the late 80s they've long suspects 1 or 2 lying around. The ridiculous, probably 40% functional 2 stage ICBM they have is a little more worrying (they also have a few subs, nothing too threatening though).
So, what should be done?
I've seen a few options kicked around:
1. UN sanctions: great, more NKs will die, the US will continue to improve its image as the third worlds friend, and the regime will be 'legitimized'.
2. Get China to 'do something'
3. Hit Yongbyon (the visible plant you can watch live on the internet via satellite if you want)
4. General strategic air campaign, hit everything military, HAARM all their ancient radars. (almost certain to be war)
5. War. Hit 'em hard, fast, and smart. Try to 'do an Iraq' and just hope that the NK officers are so 'shocked and awed' and don't like Kim enough that 'they call a war and nobody shows up'.
6. Corollary to 'hit Yongbyon': get out defectors from the nuke prog, find out under which mountain the nukes really are, send some cruise missiles to sail right into the bunkers blast doors and take them out. Less chance of causing a war?
7. Get China and SK and Russia to 'do something' besides 'issue joint statements'.
8. Give them the security guarantee in whatever language they want, unilaterally (from US pov). It would lessen the war-monger image.
9. Negotiate a security guarantee conditional on stopping nuke production, UN inspections, which the US has declared futile and useless.
10. A USSR like arrangement: hotline, MAD. Just accept the status quo. Eventually, Kim will die and North Korea will transform because the NKs will transform it, just like Russia (too much; I'm imagining NE asias newest criminal empires)
11. Call the (possible) 'bluff': Give them a deadline for stopping production, handing over existing nukes, and US led inspections (with a veneer of SK and Japan for 'credibility'). If you don't, tell them the US will unilaterally strike and that the US 'reserves the right' (popular US govmn't phrase nowadays) to answer nukes with nukes, presumeably starting with one on a CM targeting Kim's ass in whatever bunker/armoured train he's hiding out in.
12. Keep talking forever, eventually nothing will happen which is what we all want. Endless counter-threats like the Cold War, that 'brinksmanship' BS I hated so much.
What to do???
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