Why are a higher percentage of Canadians dieing of SARS?

[Drake Tungsten]

Whether SARS displays the extreme mutability of it's cousin is something still to be seen.

Let's hope it doesn't.

[lightblue]

Originally posted by Lancer
Anyway, I find SARS to be very interesting. I've been waiting for something to come around and restore the balance to this planet, and I wonder if this is it.

A 4 to 10% global mortality rate isn't going to wipe out humanity, although it will destroy the world economy in a way that we have not seen before.

I wouldn't be surprised if particular genotypes are more suceptible (different immunoglobulin alleles mainly), and if it does manage to get to all the susceptible people we'll be almost completely immune within a generation or two, although obviously at an unacceptable(?) cost.

But seeing as it threatens the Western way of life more than say HIV or malaria, i wouldn't be surprised if millions of dollars/euros will be spent to manufacture a cure/vaccine within the next year or so, thus limiting the impact on the Western world. It will end up being just another disease that plagues the Third World.

[RedFred]

Originally posted by Dr Strangelove I also seem to recall that some of the people who spread the disease from Hong Kong to Canada were health care workers, who would be in a position to spread the illness to a sicker population, i.e., people who are seeking medical care.

I remember differently. Health care workers treated infected people prior to any awareness of what the disease was. They caught it from the people returning from the far east. Then they spread it because of the long incubation period.

As far as the disease being more virulant among 'specific genotypes', no evidence of that at all. Many of the infected in Canada were asian Canadians, but that seems to be because of the disease's vector.

[Lancer]

lightblue, if you can get it a couple times every winter, like a cold...

It might not "wipe out humanity", but it might take out 4 to 10% each go round. That's my concern. My wife and I will play the odds, double up on vitamin C, lay in some chicken soup, and live through it God willing.

If it happens multiple times a season...it might take years, decades, but eventually alot more than 4-10% will die... Too bad for those that die, those that live will do so in a planet that is more in balance. The fish will repopulate the seas, the jungle take over the logged off areas, the ozone layer fill in its hole...

There will be land for the landless, starving people living on garbage at dumps in the third world, if they survive...

[Tingkai]

One doctor in Hong Kong said the fatality rate should be a comparison between those who have recovered and those who have died. In HK, that would be a fatality rate of 16% (dead/dead + recovered).

[Tingkai]

Using the same formula, the fatality rate in Toronto is also 16%. So there doesn't seem to be a difference between Canadian and "Asian" fatality rates.

[Zylka]

According to that f*cking retarded formula.

[Flubber]

There is also the reality that most of the people that have died have been elderly and/or they have had other serious medical problems. It did not apear that the current variant is killing healthy adults at all.

However I do recall reading that there were worries that some adult infected persons were showing increased/worsened symptoms and there were fears that it could be fatal to them

[RedFred]

Tingkai, what is the general level of fear in HK? If people are a bit paraniod here, a few wearing masks and such, are people there taking even more precautions?

There is a sense here that Chinese blew it big time over here and that the two recent high profile resignations were little more than window-dressing. Any anger in Hong Kong directed at Bejing?

[Tingkai]

No anger at Beijing. People are too busy being pissed off at the Hong Kong government. The latest headline is about doctors complaining that the government still has not provided enough protective gear for them. One newspaper has started a fundraising campaign to buy proper masks, gloves, etc for medical personnel.

There was a lot of panic at the initial stages, but people have calmed down, or resigned themselves to the fact that there is only so much that they can do.

[lightblue]

Originally posted by Lancer
lightblue, if you can get it a couple times every winter, like a cold...

It might not "wipe out humanity", but it might take out 4 to 10% each go round. That's my concern. My wife and I will play the odds, double up on vitamin C, lay in some chicken soup, and live through it God willing.

If it happens multiple times a season...it might take years, decades, but eventually alot more than 4-10% will die... Too bad for those that die, those that live will do so in a planet that is more in balance. The fish will repopulate the seas, the jungle take over the logged off areas, the ozone layer fill in its hole...

There will be land for the landless, starving people living on garbage at dumps in the third world, if they survive...

Well, if you don't die from it the first time, there's little reason to expect you dying from it the second time, unless the virus has mutated drastically.

Also it seems that the majority of dead are over the age of 60, and most were immuno comprimised to some degree. Of course there are exceptions, but as we don't the medical histories of these patients you can't really draw any conclusions.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Tingkai
One doctor in Hong Kong said the fatality rate should be a comparison between those who have recovered and those who have died. In HK, that would be a fatality rate of 16% (dead/dead + recovered).

I think it should be number of dead over total number of cases.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Flubber
There is also the reality that most of the people that have died have been elderly and/or they have had other serious medical problems. It did not apear that the current variant is killing healthy adults at all.

Most deaths are the elderly or ones with other choronic medical problems. There are a handful of cases of healthy adult deaths, but that can't be avoided. Even the common cold can kill you if the virus gets into some vital organs.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


I think it should be number of dead over total number of cases.

Which is what dead/(dead+recovered) equals. Unless you want to include infected, but over the long termn they die or recover.

If the formula being used before was the dead to recovered ratio then I don't see it making that much of a difference to the mortality rate, maybe reduce it by about 0.5-1.0 % for both Toronto and HK, but it certainly wouldn't bring the rates into parity.

[Urban Ranger]

The local SARS situation as of today, FWIW. It seems that it's getting under control as more people are discharged from hospitals than admitted to hospitals with the disease.