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Iraq after the war II

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  • #1

    Iraq after the war II

    Now that Saddam's been stomped I thought I'd do a follow up the poll that I posted over a month ago on what would happen to Iraq after the war: http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...threadid=79538

    For me its hard to tell what will happen until the Shia clergy stop sitting on their hands. So I'm going to vote for the Lebanon option again, but this is a guess that I don't have that much confidence in since the situation is still pretty open-ended.
    21
    The US takes over the country for a while and things turns out vaguely like Germany/Japan.
    4.76%
    1
    Things turns out more or less like post-Soviet Russia (ie a secular democracy with lots of problems but still functions).
    9.52%
    2
    Free and fair elections are immediately held which lead to a stable and democratic Iraq
    0.00%
    0
    A UN peace-keeping coalition keep things relatively similar to what Bosnia is like nowadays.
    14.29%
    3
    A pro-US dictator takes over and is propped up by the Americans.
    0.00%
    0
    The Ba'athists (or someone similar) make a comeback after the US leaves.
    0.00%
    0
    Iraq adopts an extremally decentralized constitution that lets all the groups squabble among themselves but ensures that they leave each other mostly alone.
    9.52%
    2
    Iraq descends into civil war with leads to a wider Mid-east War (or the US invades Syria and the whole area becomes a war zone again).
    9.52%
    2
    The US takes over the country and a US general continues to run things into the forseeable future.
    0.00%
    0
    Small-scale warlords end up with most of the power but the US co-opts/bribes them into an at least vaguely-functional coalition government (think Afghanistan).
    0.00%
    0
    The US tries to run Iraq and enough people unite against the US to make it ANOTHER VIETNAM
    4.76%
    1
    Things degenerate and get all bloody and nasty like in Lebanon
    4.76%
    1
    The army continues to run things and you get coup of the month government.
    0.00%
    0
    The Iraqi proletariat rise up and establish a workers' paradise
    0.00%
    0
    The Kurds declare independence.
    0.00%
    0
    The Shia declare independence with Iranian backing.
    0.00%
    0
    The Shia Arabs launch a revolution and install an Islamist state on the Iranian model
    9.52%
    2
    Elections are held and Shia Islamists and Kurdists Nationalists form a loose coalition that proceeds to give Sunni Arabs the shaft and make the state moderately Islamic.
    0.00%
    0
    The Shia crush opposition in elections and give the world a very watered-down Iran.
    4.76%
    1
    Small warlords take over and start shooting at each other (think Somalia).
    4.76%
    1
    The old monarchy is reestablished and Iraq becomes Jordan writ large.
    4.76%
    1
    In order to pay for reconstruction the US auctions off the country to corporations.
    0.00%
    0
    Iraqis establish the perfect political system, Demesos.
    0.00%
    0
    Iraq becomes a Banana Republic.
    19.05%
    4
    Stop Quoting Ben
    Tags: None
  • #2
    you AGAIN forgot the systematic genocide option.
    "I've lived too long with pain. I won't know who I am without it. We have to leave this place, I am almost happy here."
    - Ender, from Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card

    Comment

    • #3
      ooops, sorry
      went a little overboard on the number of options I think...
      Stop Quoting Ben

      Comment

      • #4
        shouldn't this be multi-choice really.
        "The Christian way has not been tried and found wanting, it has been found to be hard and left untried" - GK Chesterton.

        "The most obvious predicition about the future is that it will be mostly like the past" - Alain de Botton

        Comment

        • #5
          Boshko why the dog instead of the traditional rodent? BTW A wobbly democracy is the best we can hope for in that country.
          Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

          Comment

          • #6
            no ' the same as Afghanistan after they were 'liberated'' option?

            because that would be my guess

            Comment

            • #7
              no ' the same as Afghanistan after they were 'liberated'' option?
              I've got this:
              Small-scale warlords end up with most of the power but the US co-opts/bribes them into an at least vaguely-functional coalition government (think Afghanistan).

              understandable not seeing it among the 24 options.

              Oerdin : Well I like wolves almost as much as squirrels, but I think you're right its time to change back.
              Stop Quoting Ben

              Comment

              • #8
                I think the decentralized option will go all the way. It won't be any good in having a strong Iraq, but it will avoid it to implode into a bloody mess, so that will be the solution favored by foreign powers, and a solution accepted by the local factions.
                "I have been reading up on the universe and have come to the conclusion that the universe is a good thing." -- Dissident
                "I never had the need to have a boner." -- Dissident
                "I have never cut off my penis when I was upset over a girl." -- Dis

                Comment

                • #9
                  The best scenario is a loose federation of three states just like Canada.
                  (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
                  (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
                  (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

                  Comment

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