The Fall of Kirkuk

[Bereta_Eder]

What is in your best interest is not what interests the Kurds.

They will have it no other way than self governance be that inside Iraq or as whatever else they can get.

If they choose to go all the way, they will be massacred (luckily you can't genocide dozens of millions of people so Turkey cannot make theproblem dissapear).


If they opt for that route, Turkey will invade, you will be in a jam since any bloodletting will fall on you. Not to speak about the stability of the region.


The most likely scenario is that kurds will get autonomy. That by itself is a huge step in their agonizing struggle to eventually get a state of their own, and their aspirations of course for the liberation of all their peoples in Turkey as well as Iraq.

[Bereta_Eder]

Lincoln, we have come close to war with Turkey for our support of the Kurds... (as well as for other matters)

[Shi Huangdi]

Fortunately Paiktis, the Kurdish leaders appear to be moderate enough in this instance to not try for anything dumb. They would not have the ability to resist a Turkish invasion, and so far it seems the Kurds will not try to bring it about. There isn't going to be any autonomy, what the Kurds can have is citizenship in a democratic Iraq; they will go for that rather than do something stupid that will only result in a massacre at the hands of the Turks.

[Jack the Bodiless]

I agree that the Kurds aren't likely to get more than their own region within Iraq for the foreseeable future.

But I think that region will now include Kirkuk and Mosul, making it far more viable than "Iraqui Kurdistan" has been up to now. Turkey won't like that, but if Iraq is to be a democracy and that's what the majority populations of those cities want...

...Then Turkey might invade. It won't be a matter of the US "letting" them in. In fact, the US had better oppose such an invasion, or there will be big long-term repercussions. The US cannot be seen to condone this! And it doesn't need Turkey as an ally anymore.

Even if the Kurds can't reach an agreement with the rest of Iraq, and a fully independent Kurdish state results: why is it in the interests of the US to see that state invaded by an external enemy?

[Bereta_Eder]

It isn't. And the fact that the geostrategic importance of Turkey has been lessened considerably since its Insirlik base to impose the no fly zone in Iraq is no longer needed by the US makes this an interesting divelopement indeed.

I highly doubt the Kurds will settle for a "citizenship". Most likely they won't accept anything less than autonomy. Which is good for the US given that they support you 100%. The more power they have, the more support they are going to be able to deliver to you.

Interesting divelopments indeed.

[Bereta_Eder]

BTW and what concers the "economic viability" of an autonomous Kurdistan they don;t really need any help given their oil although I'm sure we can manage a massive financial help if they need it as well.

[Bereta_Eder]

Of course, Turkey can invade at any time as long as it judges that its interests are at stake.

Given the widely recognized inexperience of their new moderately islamic government it can't be ruled out completely.

[Jack the Bodiless]

I expect Kurdish Iraq, independent or not, will soon be wealthier than Turkey. And I expect they'll use some of that wealth to buy arms.

Turkey won't like that, of course. But the Kurds might gamble on secretly buying enough arms to halt a Turkish invasion before they find out, or arranging one massive purchase to arm themselves before Turkey can mobilize.

Interesting times, indeed.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Jack the Bodiless
I expect Kurdish Iraq, independent or not, will soon be wealthier than Turkey. And I expect they'll use some of that wealth to buy arms.

Highly unlikely. The oil money will go to the new government for the most part, if not all of it.

[CerberusIV]

If the Kurds behave themselves and follow US policy in the region then how long before Turkey gets added to the "axis of evil"?

[Jack the Bodiless]

UR: If the Kurds aren't at least quasi-autonomous, yes. But then there would be no Turkish threat anyhow: they can't get away with invading "new Iraq" rather than just "Kurdistan".

There's still a "worst-case" scenario, though. A new Iraq wants to include the Kurds and take the oil revenues, the Kurds don't accept, civil war breaks out, and New Iraq invites Turkey to assist.

[Bereta_Eder]

Nah, I doubt New Irak itself will have this much amount of autonomy