More good news in the world... Mystery bug doctor dies

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by SpencerH
How would you know that? Given that the Chinese are probably hiding the extent of the disease (as they definitely do for HIV).

That was judging from the number of cases in Hong Kong. With quarantine not really in place for the first two weeks or so, there are a total of 600 cases since 14/02.

Originally posted by SpencerH
Two tests for what, human coronavirus? The etiological agent of SARS has not been positively identified. What about the metapneumo (paramyxovirus) virus that the Canadians have identified with SARS patients? In any case, a DNA-based or ELISA-based test that detects human virus may not necessarily detect a similar virus that has jumped from animals to humans.

University of Hong Kong researchers have identified the virus that has caused the recent outbreak of atypical pneumonia.

Known as a coronavirus, it is spread through droplets and can also survive for up to a few hours outside the human body.

Link

WHO update

[SpencerH]

Sorry, but that aint proof of that a coronavirus is the cause of SARS (not by a long shot).

EDIT: some other links to alternate possibilities

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by DanS
Regarding infectivity, can anything interesting be said, based on the belief that it is similar to viruses causing the common cold?

Its hard to say since its still very early. Whatever the agent, or combination of agents, the route of infection is likely to be similar to more common coronavirus/paramyxovirus infections ie direct contact with infected mucosal secretions. What may be one factor affecting infectivity is whether this virus survives longer outside the host (which would increase its potential for transmission).

The most interesting possibility is that it really requires a combination of viruses to cause SARS. I'm not familiar with any evidence with viruses but there is ample data of virus-bug and bug-bug interactions that can potentiate the occurance of disease and its severity.

[DanS]

I note that the Spanish flu had at least two variants. I don't know whether one supported the other.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Osweld


I thought the quarantine in Toronto was only volountary at the moment. (which makes it pretty useless)

I have no firsthand knowledge, but the reports suggest otherwise. They're making enforcement phone calls to those quarantined (twice a day).

The quarantine list includes a few hundred health care workers and some hundreds of hospital visitors etc. with a relatively small number of outside contacts of known cases.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by SpencerH


How would you know that? Given that the Chinese are probably hiding the extent of the disease (as they definitely do for HIV).

I agree there is no need to panic, but I havent seen any data to support any estimates of infectivity compared to human coronaviruses (which cause the cold not the flu).

Well, in metro Toronto from an original nucleus of 4 cases (a family that had come back from Hong Kong) there have only been 60(?) or so reported cases to this point (a month after they returned). This is with absolutely no knowledge of the disease/quarantine efforts until two weeks ago.

Given the amount of contacts the average person has in a day, it seems to be relatively hard to pass on.

[KrazyHorse]

Oh, and all of the cases thus far were either passed on in hospital or in household, IIRC. None have been passed to general public.

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by Frogger
Oh, and all of the cases thus far were either passed on in hospital or in household, IIRC. None have been passed to general public.

That pattern suggests that it's not an airborne pathogen and requires close contact (as do human corona and paramyxo viruses). There simply is not enough cases yet to determine how communicable this is. On the one hand if its an animal virus we might guess that it should have a lower incidence than a similar human tropic virus. But there have been statements suggesting that it might live longer in the environment which may balance the effects of the host animal vs human question. One thing is clear though, whatever virus (or combination) it is much more lethal than the human virus and at least nearly as communicable. That's a worrying combination if it spreads.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

well if it spreads and has 4% mortality rate than buhuuuu... scary.. very very scary...

a hundred million dead?

[SpencerH]

If we dont contain it now and we assume that it is as communicable as the human-tropic virus and maintains a 4% mortality then the death toll world-wide could be very high.

Once we positively ID the organism(s) then we could make a quick vaccine that would have some efficacy, the question is whether we could make enough vaccine. Given that the flu vaccine for the US is started the previous year and there is never enough to vaccinate everyone it may be a problem.

The 3rd world would be hit very hard. Luckily China would be hit hard too and they know it. Thats why they are now using soldiers to enforce quarantine.

[Tingkai]

The quarantine is not being enforced very well here. There were 200 cases in one housing estate starting on the March 26. The government quarantined the estate five days later, but by that time hundreds of people had left to live with their relatives.

Latest gossip is that one person in our office is in hospital for observation while a relative of another employee has the virus.

Not much work being done today.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by SpencerH
That pattern suggests that it's not an airborne pathogen and requires close contact (as do human corona and paramyxo viruses). There simply is not enough cases yet to determine how communicable this is.

Sure it is. An airborne virus is a lot more communicable, because it spreads easily.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by SpencerH
Sorry, but that aint proof of that a coronavirus is the cause of SARS (not by a long shot).

Have you looked at the WHO website as well? If they think it's a strong candidate, it's probably it.

[Dr Strangelove]

Interesting. Last month there were 5 cases of unexpected deaths of young children in Eastern Virginia. All presented with respiratory symptoms, then unexpectedly progreesed to respiratory failure. AFAIK the agent has't beemn reported yet.

My understanding about the Hong Kong cases is that the virus was identified as a new strain of Corona virus. Are you guys saying that the virus in Canada is different from the one in Hong Kong?

[Alexander's Horse]

I once consulted a doctor who told me he never gets sick.

Bastard.