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SCENARIO: Iraq Triumphs Over Coalition Forces
Everyone:
Now I'm not talking strictly in the military sense — from what I've gleaned, the Coalition forces can pretty much do what they want with the Iraqi military. I'm talking about the fanatical Saddam Hussein backers, chemical/biological weapons and urban warfare, the triumverate that would make life miserable for the Coalition.
What happens if the worst-case scenario comes to pass — namely, the use of chemical and biological weapons on the Coalition, and ensuing urban fighting with Saddam's fanatics? Would the sheer bloodshed make the democratic populations of the Coalition nations blanch and force a withdrawal from the battlefield? Would George W. Bush, et al., be forced by their own people to settle for a cease-fire and/or peace treaty and a humiliating withdrawal from Iraq?
How would an Iraqi "victory" in this sense affect it? Would Iraq become more assertive again once it was done rebuilding? Would Saddam's rule get even harsher?
How would the West look in the eyes of the Middle East (especially the Coalition members, but also the West in general ... remember, the fanatics don't necessarily care where you live in the West)? How would the United Nations be affected?
Or is all of this moot, and we will see something along the lines of Berlin at the end of World War II — heavy urban fighting with the last, dying fanatics of a dead regime going down and taking as many people as they can to hell with them?
***
I shall address the "loser" option, as I don't think it will come to pass (thus, it should be "safer" to predict):
Coalition loses: In this case, I predict that George W. Bush will get his buttocks kicked in during the next presidential election, thus ending his presidency on the same note as his father: a one-term president, except he didn't win in the Persian Gulf like his father, George Herbert Walker Bush, did. I suspect a Democrat would win the presidency, but that's not a guarantee, either, as their presidential field is packed with wannabes. It's possible another GOP contender will win in the primaries — John McCain, perhaps? Or would Colin Powell say the hell with it and run? (These two men, obviously, are my favorites ...)
On the diplomatic front, I think that such an outcome would be disastrous for U.S. policy. We would lose allies, and other nations would think thrice before joining in any adventure with us, particularly if they see no threat to their own security on the global horizon. We would still retain our seat on the U.N. Security Council, and our 25 percent of its total funding might keep U.N. officials themselves quiet, but not actual U.N. members, who would likely take every opportunity to rub our faces in the defeat.
Economically, the economy would likely stay the same or get slightly worse. I'm no economist, but I think that the markets might stabilize if some sort of predictable future were secured, even if it's one where the Coalition doesn't win in Iraq. Both the GOP and Democrats will claim credit for this stabilization, of course. The wild card, of course, is the halving of Bush's proposed tax cut so far, the markets don't seem to like the prospect of losing out on tax-free dividends. But taxpayers might not mind having smaller deficits as a result ...
Militarily, I think our men and women in the armed forces will suffer morale problems. Plus we would have a surge in the use of the Veterans Affairs healthcare system, so that would mean extra funding would be necessary to properly handle the influx over the years. Whether Congress appropriates the funds is unknown, but judging from past track records, it wouldn't be likely.
In the Middle East, democracy will be as dead as a doornail. Even its ghost will be chased out of the region, and I expect we would see more and more militarized, nationalistic or theocratic governments either coming to power, or staying in power (the latter more likely). Afghanistan might be the exception to that trend, knowing all-too-well what life is like under strict theocracies.
Oh, and Iran will get nuclear weapons, which might mean Israel will go after them, which in turn sets off a chain of events that could lead to the utter devastation of the Middle East if moderating influences aren't brought to bear.
Gatekeeper (who's out of ideas at this time of the morning to address the possible ramifications of a Coalition victory)
Now I'm not talking strictly in the military sense — from what I've gleaned, the Coalition forces can pretty much do what they want with the Iraqi military. I'm talking about the fanatical Saddam Hussein backers, chemical/biological weapons and urban warfare, the triumverate that would make life miserable for the Coalition.
What happens if the worst-case scenario comes to pass — namely, the use of chemical and biological weapons on the Coalition, and ensuing urban fighting with Saddam's fanatics? Would the sheer bloodshed make the democratic populations of the Coalition nations blanch and force a withdrawal from the battlefield? Would George W. Bush, et al., be forced by their own people to settle for a cease-fire and/or peace treaty and a humiliating withdrawal from Iraq?
How would an Iraqi "victory" in this sense affect it? Would Iraq become more assertive again once it was done rebuilding? Would Saddam's rule get even harsher?
How would the West look in the eyes of the Middle East (especially the Coalition members, but also the West in general ... remember, the fanatics don't necessarily care where you live in the West)? How would the United Nations be affected?
Or is all of this moot, and we will see something along the lines of Berlin at the end of World War II — heavy urban fighting with the last, dying fanatics of a dead regime going down and taking as many people as they can to hell with them?
***
I shall address the "loser" option, as I don't think it will come to pass (thus, it should be "safer" to predict):
Coalition loses: In this case, I predict that George W. Bush will get his buttocks kicked in during the next presidential election, thus ending his presidency on the same note as his father: a one-term president, except he didn't win in the Persian Gulf like his father, George Herbert Walker Bush, did. I suspect a Democrat would win the presidency, but that's not a guarantee, either, as their presidential field is packed with wannabes. It's possible another GOP contender will win in the primaries — John McCain, perhaps? Or would Colin Powell say the hell with it and run? (These two men, obviously, are my favorites ...)
On the diplomatic front, I think that such an outcome would be disastrous for U.S. policy. We would lose allies, and other nations would think thrice before joining in any adventure with us, particularly if they see no threat to their own security on the global horizon. We would still retain our seat on the U.N. Security Council, and our 25 percent of its total funding might keep U.N. officials themselves quiet, but not actual U.N. members, who would likely take every opportunity to rub our faces in the defeat.
Economically, the economy would likely stay the same or get slightly worse. I'm no economist, but I think that the markets might stabilize if some sort of predictable future were secured, even if it's one where the Coalition doesn't win in Iraq. Both the GOP and Democrats will claim credit for this stabilization, of course. The wild card, of course, is the halving of Bush's proposed tax cut so far, the markets don't seem to like the prospect of losing out on tax-free dividends. But taxpayers might not mind having smaller deficits as a result ...
Militarily, I think our men and women in the armed forces will suffer morale problems. Plus we would have a surge in the use of the Veterans Affairs healthcare system, so that would mean extra funding would be necessary to properly handle the influx over the years. Whether Congress appropriates the funds is unknown, but judging from past track records, it wouldn't be likely.
In the Middle East, democracy will be as dead as a doornail. Even its ghost will be chased out of the region, and I expect we would see more and more militarized, nationalistic or theocratic governments either coming to power, or staying in power (the latter more likely). Afghanistan might be the exception to that trend, knowing all-too-well what life is like under strict theocracies.
Oh, and Iran will get nuclear weapons, which might mean Israel will go after them, which in turn sets off a chain of events that could lead to the utter devastation of the Middle East if moderating influences aren't brought to bear.
Gatekeeper (who's out of ideas at this time of the morning to address the possible ramifications of a Coalition victory)
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