How Long Will Gulf War II Last?

[DanS]

It looks like the war is going to start in the next week, so it's prognostication time. Please vote on how long the war will last, starting at the beginning of hostilities from air or ground and ending when the coalition no longer meets widespread resistence.

Some items of note. The Kuwait border to Baghdad is some 300 miles/500 kilometers. The top speed of the M1 A2 main battle tank is 41.5 miles per hour. The top speed of the latest armored personnel carrier is also 41 miles per hour.

Between Kuwait and Baghdad there is at least one river crossing, unless one were to come in from the West.

[Dinner]

Twomonths and the fighting is over.

[raghar]

It depends what do you mean. If you think raid to ruins of Baghdad then they could do it around month and half. If you think complete control of Iraq then it could be well over 2 months - look at Afghanistan.

Then you should add that air pre bombing would be at least 3 days and NO US troop would risk to be at wrong place sooner than they would need.
Most of heaviest fighting would be over in 2 weeks becouse after that US would be forced to be little carefull what to do with bombs. (bomb shortage could be nasty :nasty: ) Guerila warfare could be here well over 2 years. (if US would not repair damages on Iraq then it will last much longer)

[Lawrence of Arabia]

btw when the war starts, the tank crews will all remove the speed limiting peice of equipment in their tanks, resulting in an increase of speed (i think its like 10 - 20 miles faster)

[Lord Merciless]

I predict a new attempt of Operation "Market Garden":

Airborne troops assault strategic important locations such as oil fields and downtown Baghdad.

Airpower assists the assault troops in defending against Iraqi counterattacks

Ground forces race at top speed trying to linking up pockets of lightly armed airborne troops.

If that works out well, we can add a new chapter in military strategy lectures.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Twomonths and the fighting is over.

This is hard to believe. This actually assumes there will be a fair fight.

[Ted Striker]

Getting to Baghdad and that other city (Saddam's power base) will be done in a matter of a couple of days.

However there will be a few standoffs once coalition gets there. I'd say those sieges could last up to 2 weeks minimal.

[Ned]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless
I predict a new attempt of Operation "Market Garden":

Airborne troops assault strategic important locations such as oil fields and downtown Baghdad.

Airpower assists the assault troops in defending against Iraqi counterattacks

Ground forces race at top speed trying to linking up pockets of lightly armed airborne troops.

If that works out well, we can add a new chapter in military strategy lectures.

Bold, very aggressive. Perfect!

[DanS]

I think it's important to win the war as quickly as possible. In addition to saving lives on both sides, this is a demonstration of our military's abilities. There is a very real geopolitical benefit to doing it lightening fast. Our power will be measured for perhaps decades on our success in the next couple of weeks.

[Hueij]

Depends on what you mean by "winning". Defeating the Iraqi army will take less than two weeks. Rebuilding the nation will take a couple of decades. Somehow I have the feeling you won't be up to that task...

[DanS]

I thought I was pretty clear on what a win was--no widespread resistance. And peace is not war! Wait to criticize our post-war actions until after the war!

[raghar]

Airborne troops trying to capture bobytraped oil fields. Tanks runing at awsome real speed 10-38kph.

I hope there wouldn't be too much "smart" people like Clausewitz, with after war analysis.

well it could be interesting war and... (or should I say police action and...?)

Peace could be more bloody than war.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless
I predict a new attempt of Operation "Market Garden":

Airborne troops assault strategic important locations such as oil fields and downtown Baghdad.

Airpower assists the assault troops in defending against Iraqi counterattacks

Ground forces race at top speed trying to linking up pockets of lightly armed airborne troops.

If that works out well, we can add a new chapter in military strategy lectures.

Pretty good analysis.

[Maniac]

The war is already busy... The bombardments are getting heavier each day.

[Kramerman]

most of the country will be taken pretty quickly, but the sieges of Bagdhad, Saddam's home town, and maybe a few other mahir cities will take much longer.

I voted 1-2 months, tho most of this time will be a siege.

Kman