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He sure showed up fast, didn't he?
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I am the One-in-All and the All-in-One. I am everywhere and nowhere. The Guardian and the Gate guarded.
oh wait, that's Yug-Suggoth. Silly me. I just keep my eyes out for my name.Exult in your existence, because that very process has blundered unwittingly on its own negation. Only a small, local negation, to be sure: only one species, and only a minority of that species; but there lies hope. [...] Stand tall, Bipedal Ape. The shark may outswim you, the cheetah outrun you, the swift outfly you, the capuchin outclimb you, the elephant outpower you, the redwood outlast you. But you have the biggest gifts of all: the gift of understanding the ruthlessly cruel process that gave us all existence [and the] gift of revulsion against its implications.
-Richard DawkinsComment
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I'll predict the French will veto. My reason for this is that the press has continually harped on about how this is just a French strategy to gain leverage and how they will back off soon (various pieces of evidence have been cited for this, including the deployment of the De Gaulle to the Middle East).
So far though, the French have not only continued to play hard, they have played harder and harder in spite of the predicitions.
Anyway, the French stand to gain a great diplomatic advantaged if the US goes to war without UN sanction - it means that the US will have difficulty in coming to the UN for things it wants and it won't be able to criticise other states for being in violation of international consensus.
In essence the French have managed to divert most of the "soft power" the US exercised internationally to themselves as the defender of democratic multilateralism. Cynical it may be, but it's working....Only feebs vote.Comment
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Originally posted by Starchild
It's only your inherent oversexed nature that makes you automatically assume the word "blowjob" refers to human male semen and not to a drink consisting of baileys, creme de cacao and whatever crap the barteder throws in when I drunkingly order five at a time.
We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham LincolnComment
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France won't veto. Two situations are possible:
1. The US manages to get 9 votes, and the number of votes against is between 3 and 6. (Russia, Pakistan, and China all might abstain, or might vote against. Germany, France, and Syria will definitely vote against.) In this case, France has 5 or less allies, and the US has 8. I don't see them using their veto.
2. The US gets less than 9 votes. In this case, the veto isn't necessary."You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005Comment
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I don't know about that, Jag. Public opinion outside the US and Israel is massively anti war and any country other than the US that votes for the resolution will be doing so in spite of the wishes of its citizens. The French could point out that they exercised their veto on behalf of the citizens of those countries whose governments had been bribed or threatened by the US.
I don't think they'll get the nine votes. The anti war party only needs two, the pro war party needs five.Only feebs vote.Comment
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The pro-war party has moreOriginally posted by Agathon
I don't know about that, Jag. Public opinion outside the US and Israel is massively anti war and any country other than the US that votes for the resolution will be doing so in spite of the wishes of its citizens. The French could point out that they exercised their veto on behalf of the citizens of those countries whose governments had been bribed or threatened by the US.
I don't think they'll get the nine votes. The anti war party only needs two, the pro war party needs five.
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"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005Comment
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IMO: If it comes to a vote on war, US will get either 8 votes, or 9. It will get its own vote, plus UK, Bulgaria, Guinea, Spain, Chile, Angola, and Cameroon. It has to get Mexico (40% chance of happening) and/or Pakistan (maybe 20% chance.) So the odds of UN support for war are about 50-50. (without vetos taken into account)"You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran
Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005Comment
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Reason for China... If US could win UN sec council support they could attack NK next. > Problems south of China > veto.
It could be 7 against so no need for veto.
Strange, US is using more blackmail than money. Why?
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That may not work.Originally posted by Jaguar Warrior
The pro-war party has more.
Only feebs vote.Comment
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The only way this resolution passes is if the chorus of US threats agaisnt anyne who "dares" vote against it is lound enough ot make this a war of the intimidated: the President recently sated that there might be a popular anti-mexican backlash in the US is mexico did not vote as the white house wants them to.
Iam not so sure the US will get the Africans and Chile to vote for, and not abstain. Another posibility is more yes votes then no, but the abstains make it so there is no majority.If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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With countries like Angola and Mexico onboard I tend to disagree.That may not work.Comment
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The vote could go like the Turkey vote..which most people tought was in the bag...
But I have to agree with azazel on this: the US will threaten the small states enough to get them to vote for, the Chinese might veto, but are more likely to abstain , which leaves the French and Russians, and if it looks like the US gets all 9 votes, the Russians might just abstain, and the French be left alone...
All this even if the March 17 ultimatum is really a joke, simply a nice deadline for us to know when the war wil start.
Which is still 12 weeks later than what I had predicted...If you don't like reality, change it! me
"Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
"it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
"Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard ShawComment
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actually, I don't think they'll simply threaten. the best system is stick AND carrot.
Can one vote against but not enforce a veto?Comment
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