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My money's on the Lebanon option, largely due to the Shia majority in the south whose only real political voice is the Islamist Da'wa.
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58The US takes over the country and things turns out vaguely like Germany/Japan15.52%9A UN peace-keeping coalition keep things relatively similar to what Bosnia is like nowadays8.62%5The US coopts/bribes Iraqi leaders who set up a loose coaltion government kind of like in Afghanistan now18.97%11After the war free and fair elections are immediately held which lead to a stable and democratic Iraq1.72%1Iraq gets partitioned into three or more countries0.00%0The US tries to run Iraq and enough people unite against the US to make it ANOTHER VIETNAM5.17%3Things degenerate and get all bloody and nasty like in Lebanon17.24%10The US installs a Sunni Arab general who turns out to be not all that different from Saddam15.52%9The Shia Arabs launch a revolution and install an Islamist state on the Iranian model3.45%2The army continues to run things and you get coup-of-the-month government3.45%2The Iraqi proletariat rise up and establish a workers' paradise3.45%2Iraq is renamed Bananastan6.90%4Stop Quoting Ben -
Just gotta pick workers' paradise
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Re: Iraq after the war?
The Iraqi Shi'ite have been crushed before when they tried to rise up. If needed, they can be crushed again.Originally posted by Boshko
My money's on the Lebanon option, largely due to the Shia majority in the south whose only real political voice is the Islamist Da'wa."I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer
"I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - SlowwhandComment
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I pick Afghanistan.“I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
- John 13:34-35 (NRSV)Comment
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As did I.
-Arriangrog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!
The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.Comment
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I voted for option #4 - but I know the odds are against it happening.
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"If God, as they say, is homophobic, I wouldn't worship that God." - Archbishop Desmond Tutu
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Right, they don't have the power to sieze control like in Iran but they DO have the power to do a lot, after all they are the majority of the population, which is why the US will do all it can to prevent the establishment of democracy in Iraq.The Iraqi Shi'ite have been crushed before when they tried to rise up. If needed, they can be crushed again.
And something like Afghanistan isn't going to happen in Iraq, the countries are two different. In Afghanistan you could coopt the warlords on the ground with brides etc (something that was implemented quite well) and keep things nice and decentralized while keeping the existing local power-brokers happy. In Iraq there ARE no local power-brokers to coopt, since Iraq is vastly more centralized (with the exception of the North) than Afghanistan ever was. And for that matter there's no Northern Alliance, the closest thing you've got are the Kurds and there's no way Turkey will stand for the US using them in the way it used the Northern Alliance.
Also there's the oil. Its much harder to establish a loose decentralized coaltion government like in Afghanistan since any Iraqi powers that emerge will all want to be sitting on top of the oil wells.
Whatever happens, I really hope that the US doesn't **** the Kurds over for a third time, they seem to be doing fairly well at institution-buildingStop Quoting BenComment
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You forgot DU-poisoned wasteland.Comment
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"Right, they don't have the power to sieze control like in Iran but they DO have the power to do a lot, after all they are the majority of the population, which is why the US will do all it can to prevent the establishment of democracy in Iraq."
Ah, but after Saddam crushed the region they stopped doing everything. If nessecary we have a working model in place to install order in the region. I am hoping however that won't be nessecary. As I mentioned before, most of the people in Shi'ite Iran are secularists(even if their governemnt is not), and Iraq has a long tradition of secular government. It is really hard to say right now whether the Iraqi Shi'ites will want an Islamist state or not. Hopefully once we have Iraq under occupation, it will be easier to learn where their sympathies lay and if they would be willing to go along with a secular, democratic government.
"Whatever happens, I really hope that the US doesn't **** the Kurds over for a third time, they seem to be doing fairly well at institution-building"
Hard to say. If the Turks refuse to cooperate, the Kurds could be in good shape. From what I have read though Kurdish militias are training and preparing to resist a Turkish invasion, if they try to fight the Turkish army they could be in trouble."I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer
"I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - SlowwhandComment
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I picked Lebananon, although Afghanistan might get mixed in too, if only because the US decides to prop somebody up for a whileComment
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Isn´t 1 and 4 basically the same?BlahComment
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it would be awesome if 1 works out, but it is very unlikely..."I bet Ikarus eats his own spunk..."
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Kramerman - Creator and Author of The Epic Tale of Navalon in the Civ III Stories ForumComment
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I went for the 8th option, seems the most likely to me.I'm building a wagon! On some other part of the internets, obviously (but not that other site).Comment
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I said nam, but lebanonn seems quite likley and the same about installing a leade similar to Sodamn insaine.
though a combo of all 3 is probably more likley.eimi men anthropos pollon logon, mikras de sophiasComment
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The whole situation depends upon the level of committment the US has after the war. With the level of world dissent it may have a chance to be significant. I think a lot depends on how much it is kept in the public eye by the US media as well.
Hopefully the US will follow through with this and option one will come to fruition"I am sick and tired of people who say that if you debate and you disagree with this administration somehow you're not patriotic. We should stand up and say we are Americans and we have a right to debate and disagree with any administration." - Hillary Clinton, 2003Comment
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