Intelligence War!!

[The Andy-Man]

Considering all this fuss that Britain and the US are making over 'suspected' Terror attacks and so on, wouldn't it make sense for Al Qaeda and all them lot to just stream out loads of conversations and transcripts etc hinting towards major attacks, let all these countries get all up-in-arms, and then do nothing?

This would cause quite a decent amount of disruption and cost, and have the extra effect of the 'cry wolf' syndrome - no one will know when its a serious threat or not.

[Buck Birdseed]

Five minutes to thread closure. Engaging silent countdown.

[SlowwHand]

That's not been their current modus operandi ?

[The Andy-Man]

Originally posted by Buck Birdseed
Five minutes to thread closure. Engaging silent countdown.

What for?

That's not been their current modus operandi ?

It seems it has, but I am just opeing a discussion as it seemed interesting.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
What for?

Do you have Ming´s posts on your ignore list?

[Urban Ranger]

This is not about the War in Iraq, however.

[The Andy-Man]

Originally posted by BeBro


Do you have Ming´s posts on your ignore list?

no but it seems a good idea

This is not about the War in Iraq, however.

exactly.

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man


no but it seems a good idea

[SpencerH]

Re: Intelligence War!!

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
Considering all this fuss that Britain and the US are making over 'suspected' Terror attacks and so on, wouldn't it make sense for Al Qaeda and all them lot to just stream out loads of conversations and transcripts etc hinting towards major attacks, let all these countries get all up-in-arms, and then do nothing?

This would cause quite a decent amount of disruption and cost, and have the extra effect of the 'cry wolf' syndrome - no one will know when its a serious threat or not.

They could do as you say. The only problem is that they put themselves in jeopardy to do so. Obviously, not all captured conversations are given the same weight. Messages from peons have less value than those from Bin Ladens lieutenants. In any case, we glean details they didnt mean to give away. Playing such games by senior Al Queda dogs would increase our chances of locating them and now that the American agencies are no longer hog-tied we can dispose of them.

[The Andy-Man]

Re: Re: Intelligence War!!

Originally posted by SpencerH


They could do as you say. The only problem is that they put themselves in jeopardy to do so. Obviously, not all captured conversations are given the same weight. Messages from peons have less value than those from Bin Ladens lieutenants. In any case, we glean details they didnt mean to give away. Playing such games by senior Al Queda dogs would increase our chances of locating them and now that the American agencies are no longer hog-tied we can dispose of them.

True, but if the infomation is meant to be misleading, then i am sure there are ways around some of the problems you have stated. I mean, if some peon pretends to be bin ladin, and has a phone conversation with someone saying something, then how will anyone know hes pretending, and how can they NOT do something anyway? BEcause if they ignore it as 'a hoax' and something happens, then you have the outburst against the CIA like what happened september 2001.

OTOH, if every day you lead out a load of troops hyping up an 'attack', and nothing happens, people will loose confidence in any war on terror - either way the terrorists win out.

[Lancer]

This thread is to remain open or else!

There, I just closed it.

[SpencerH]

Re: Re: Re: Intelligence War!!

Originally posted by The Andy-Man

True, but if the infomation is meant to be misleading, then i am sure there are ways around some of the problems you have stated. I mean, if some peon pretends to be bin ladin, and has a phone conversation with someone saying something, then how will anyone know hes pretending, and how can they NOT do something anyway?

BEcause if they ignore it as 'a hoax' and something happens, then you have the outburst against the CIA like what happened september 2001.

OTOH, if every day you lead out a load of troops hyping up an 'attack', and nothing happens, people will loose confidence in any war on terror - either way the terrorists win out.

Misinformation has always been a factor in the intelligence business. One phone conversation would mean very little unless they absolutely knew it was Bin Laden (for example). Theres never a smoking gun. Its a puzzle where you get snippets here and there but before anything is acted upon someone has to decide whether or not the threat is credible. That takes time and enough snippets. So to put it in perspective, threats are received all the time but it was only recently (for example) that enough data was judged credible enough to warrant putting out a 'red alert'.

The fact that nothing appeared to happen during the last 'red alert' doesnt mean there wasnt a real threat. It may mean that the threat was foiled. Unfortunately we may never know the truth of the matter and as you point out there is a psychological effect anyway. The reason I find a misinformation campaign unlikely is that we are actively hunting these dogs and their only hope is to stay hidden. If they were actively feeding us misinformation as part of a psychological action aginst us they would be committing suicide.

[SpencerH]

Originally posted by Lancer
This thread is to remain open or else!

There, I just closed it.

Why should it be closed? It's not about Iraq.

[Dinner]

This thread may actually survive. BTW I suspect that if OBL and his cronies were constiently prophasizing spectacular attacks which didn't happen then they would begin to lose credibility.