State Implosion -- A New Twist In North Korea

[Arrian]

Perhaps the intelligence agency of a certain country can assassinate Kim Jong-Il?

Would whacking him achieve the desired result, and, if so, does that end justify the means?

-Arrian

[Sandman]

The Chinese should force NK to negotiate a reunification treaty with one big condition for the South; no US troops in the united korea.

[DanS]

This is a very freaky thing for all the nations around it - Japan, South Korea, China, Russia. Just imagine the millions of millions of refugees pouring across borders and massing themselves in half-rickety boats across the Yellow and Japan Seas, not to mention the missiles that may be launched in any direction.

Yes, I know that there would be millions of refugees, but this would be a much better situation than watching them starve and toiling away in death camps. It's a matter of conscience. I don't want my tax dollars going to perpetuating a regime that makes Hitler look like a boy scout in comparison.

We have a precedent for this. Just as Hungary did for the East Germans, China should not enforce its treaty with NK to repatriate refugees. This would funnel the refugees in one direction, where they can be processed in an orderly fashion.

China could then pass them along by boat to SK. SK is a first world country and is able to handle this. The US should stand ready to help them and do much of the heavy lifting.

That's the way that this government falls without the missiles starting to fly.

[ranskaldan]

I don't really get what you mean about the missiles not flying - how would that happen?

[DanS]

The US cannot take down this regime, without a nuke landing in Tokyo, as mentioned above.

The NKers have to do it themselves. The only thing we can do is encourage a situation where the threat is internal, not external. Mass migration is one way to undermine the regime from within. It has been successful in the past in similar circumstances.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Sandman
The Chinese should force NK to negotiate a reunification treaty with one big condition for the South; no US troops in the united korea.

That might set up some interesting scenarios with China, Russia, and Japan as each compete for influence in the power vaccum left behind.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by DanS
We have a precedent for this. Just as Hungary did for the East Germans, China should not enforce its treaty with NK to repatriate refugees. This would funnel the refugees in one direction, where they can be processed in an orderly fashion.

China could then pass them along by boat to SK. SK is a first world country and is able to handle this. The US should stand ready to help them and do much of the heavy lifting.

Can't really do that without huge reprecussions. When news of that spreads, gazillions of NK refugees will flood the border. It won't be anything like a nice orderly steady flow, it will be huge mobs charging around in a chaotic fashion. The bordering towns and provinces will be paralysed by hungry mobs, grinding to a halt. Even in the best case scenario where nobody goes around stealing food, looting and causing generic mayhem, the infrastructure just cannot handle this load.

[Ned]

If the leader of SK had any balls, he would offer the high military in the North cushy positions in a united Korea, call for them to overthrow their dictator and reunite with the South.

In the famous words of Ronald Reagan, “Kim Jong Il, why not just tear down that wall?”

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by DanS
The US cannot take down this regime, without a nuke landing in Tokyo, as mentioned above.

The NKers have to do it themselves. The only thing we can do is encourage a situation where the threat is internal, not external. Mass migration is one way to undermine the regime from within. It has been successful in the past in similar circumstances.

Well, as UR points out, China for one would NOT voluntarily agree to such a plan.

The problem, as I see it, is with Kim Jong-Il himself. Apparently he is content with ruling a medieval fiefdom that will eventually implode into his face, because he is too scared to save his own ass with reforms (as his large neighbour to the north has demonstrated). In fact, I think this is a problem endemic to all hereditory monarchies - the heirs grow up in a high-place and intensely paranoid of falling from it.

What North Korea needs the most is a leader-change - one that looks like an innocent succession of power. But is there any way to instigate this without creating mayhem in North Korea immediately?

[Urban Ranger]

rans,

IIRC, Kim Jong Il has been trying to create reforms - he did attempt to establish a "special economic region" bordering China. Unfortunately, the Chinese businessman he appointed to be head of the region turned out to be a tax evader - among other white collar crimes - so the plan was aborted. I last heard he would try it somewhere else.

Perhaps it's not as easy as it sounds. Although Kim looks like the undisputed leader from the outside, there perhaps exist even more diehard factions within the military that he has to deal with first.

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
rans,

IIRC, Kim Jong Il has been trying to create reforms - he did attempt to establish a "special economic region" bordering China. Unfortunately, the Chinese businessman he appointed to be head of the region turned out to be a tax evader - among other white collar crimes - so the plan was aborted. I last heard he would try it somewhere else.

He'd better try it somewhere else... before his country crumbles and takes him down with it.

[Jon Miller]

most likely the military or the other party leaders get 60 virgins in this life, so they are somewhat not interested in change

Jon Miller

[DanS]

The time for special economic regions is loooooong past. He could have tried it 10 years ago.

Re the repurcussions to China of mass migration, this is all true to a point. But it would give a certain amount of control to the situation. The repurcussions could be foreseen and planned for, just as they were in Afghanistan for a similar number of refugees. Does this part of China have less infrastructure than Afghanistan?

Right now, nobody has control over the situation. We don't even know if Kim Jong Il has a realistic end-game. He might be signing checks that nobody's ass can ever cash. This is a much more dangerous situation than a couple of million refugees well provisioned for.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by ranskaldan
And if a nuke lands squarely into downtown Tokyo?

That means that they only have two left. Three tops.

[mindseye]

The last Bond film was about North Korea.

Really? That's hilarious! I have to confess that the last Bond film I saw starred Sean Connery.

Art imitates life after all, right?