Postwar Iraqi government?

[Sandman]

So, it's all over.

The Iraqi army has been wiped out, the country is totally under American control and Saddam is dead, captured or 'missing'. It only took a few weeks, and American casualties have been pretty light.

What sort of government should be installed?

Military occupation government: The leader of the country is an American general, with democracy decades away. Likely to stoke anti-American feeling throughout the Muslim world, and severely irritate the Arab states, who will object to the presence of an 'American Caesar'. Still, this maximises American control over the country, and maybe the Islamic world will learn that America is a benevolent master...

Puppet government: The leader is an American puppet drawn from the Iraqi exiles, a bit like Afghanistan. He's touted as a democatic leader, but actual elections are 'years away'. More diplomatic than the occupation government, with almost as much control, but if the leader is assassinated, or veers off message, then there's bound to be trouble. There's also the problem of the ethnic groups accepting a leader who's not one of them.

Democracy: A full-blown democracy right from the start. This will improve America's standing in the wider world (and probably among the populations of the Muslim countries), but will infuriate the leaders of the undemocratic nations surrounding Iraq. There's a serious danger of Islamic extremists getting power, not to mention the assorted ethnicities trying to secede.

These are the three main options. There are others, such as annexation or anarchy, but I think that they're realistic.

[Lord Merciless]

Re: Postwar Iraqi government?

Originally posted by Sandman

Military occupation government: The leader of the country is an American general, with democracy decades away. Likely to stoke anti-American feeling throughout the Muslim world, and severely irritate the Arab states, who will object to the presence of an 'American Caesar'. Still, this maximises American control over the country, and maybe the Islamic world will learn that America is a benevolent master...

This one should be similar to that one we had in Japan from 1945 to 1950. Even though we firebombed and nuked their cities prior to that, General MacArthur was more loved by the Japanese than their Emperor by the time he left for Korea.

[Stefu]

Puppet government, most likely.

[Stefu]

Eh, I meant that that's going to be the most likely option. (Stupid Stefu, learn to read the thread!)

As for what should be installed, I don't know. "American Shogun" worked well enough for Japan, but Iraq might be a different case.

[Japher]

None of the Above. I think the land will be auctioned off to the highest bidder and become holdings of several large corperations, and the land no one wants will be given to the Kurds.

[Inverse Icarus]

we give the land back to the sandpeople of the tigris and order is restored to the universe.

[Nubclear]

Actually, the US has admitted to planning on having the general control the country "Until demcoracy can be set up".

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight........

[Sonic]

Iraq in my opinion after war should be given to Saudi Arabia as a generous present for His Royal Highiness Crown Prince Abdullah, probably at a time when it will be his birthday. I think Saudi rule would be much times better than one it would be if Iraq would be democratic, as the democracy would most likely collapse in 5-10 years. Puppet government would just spread diseases everywhere and soon enough it would be not so puppet (new war in Iraq in 2010-2020 if such option undertaken). BTW, in my opinion USA should change it's name into The Vassal States of Israel, while title of US president should be changed to "Israeli governor for North America"...

Err... What am I talking here? I meant, I would have voted banana but there is simply no such option :-) .

[Arrian]

Tass,

I'm skeptical about my government's "after war" plans too (I don't think they have any, really), but seeing as they had generals controlling Japan and W. Germany after WWII "until democracy could be set up" and those countries are now free & democratic... can't you acknowledge the possibility of the same scenario being repeated?

-Arrian

[Japher]

I will go with banana!! I change my vote: Banana.

[GePap]

Both Germany and Japan were essentially industrial powers with deversified economies, thriving large companies, large and well trained burocracies that could be used by the invaders to run the local offices, and neither had significant ethnic and religious internal devides.

I fail to see how the situation in a state that lacks all of these (to one degree or another) would all of a sudden play out so similarly.

[Starchild]

You assume there's going to be a viable postwar government capable of ruling from the centre in a strong yet just manner. How cute.

[Arrian]

GePap,

And I would agree with you, actually, but I what I said to Tass was:

...can't you acknowledge the possibility...

The implication of his post is that the idea of US military rule leading to democracy is ludicrous - laughable, even. I simply pointed out it's happened before, so it is at least arguable that it could happen again.

-Arrian

[DuncanK]

I think that the country should be divided up and segregated. Oh how very conservative I am. This is a mess.

[Ramo]

A democratic government (with Constitutional protection of liberties, etc.) would certainly be preferable, but it simply won't happen because Iran and Turkey. Anyone who believes there'll be more freedom in Iraq after a US invasion than currently is out of touch with reality.