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GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part 13

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  • #211
    Originally posted by DanS
    but I don't see how anyone could credibly come up with a figure of .5% per annum additional growth

    I'll try to find more backup for these calculations. I believe the .5% per annum is how they derive the expected bump up in equities prices as well--i.e., discount .5% additional growth per annum with a suitable discount rate to get a 9% increase in equities prices.
    If equity prices go up it wont be because of growth it will because of increase demand for equity. Either people are going to make business investments or they are going to invest in something else. The tax cuts could improve the equities market and not contribute anything to the economy directly.
    Originally posted by DanS

    On another topic, it's pretty amazing how bad the CAC40 and DAX have been doing. Here's the DAX...

    Does this suggest that the S&P/FTSE are trailing CAC40/DAX and still have a ways to go on the downside? It's amazing to me that Germany and France aren't in a depression. Are these markets really that small? Or have we learned our lessons sufficiently well that a 70% plummet in equities prices doesn't create instability?
    Interesting. I didn't know these markets had done so poorly. I think there is a wealth effect in these countries, but maybe not as much as in the US.
    "When you ride alone, you ride with Bin Ladin"-Bill Maher
    "All capital is dripping with blood."-Karl Marx
    "Of course, my response to your Marx quote is 'So?'"-Imran Siddiqui

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    • #212
      Originally posted by DanS
      On another topic, it's pretty amazing how bad the CAC40 and DAX have been doing. Here's the DAX...
      Did you notice that price levels have only gone back to 94' levels.
      "When you ride alone, you ride with Bin Ladin"-Bill Maher
      "All capital is dripping with blood."-Karl Marx
      "Of course, my response to your Marx quote is 'So?'"-Imran Siddiqui

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      • #213
        So Congress injects some sense into the whole stupid enormous £700+ Billion tax cut shenanigan.

        Ari Fleischer's comment on the intervention: “The more they shrink the tax cut, the harder it will be for people to find work, because the economy won’t grow as fast,”

        Republicans say that the tax cut would kick-start the economy, boost government revenues and eventually shrink federal budget deficits.

        I can see why Krugman gets so worked up in his column.
        Last edited by DrSpike; March 27, 2003, 12:05.

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        • #214
          This tax discussion will continue without much grist until we get some semblance of a final cost for the war. These moves are just tactical preparations for the conference committee, which will end up writing the bill. It will end up being a compromise, as this process always does.
          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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          • #215
            Good Gawd. DAX down 7.68% since the beginning of the war. CAC down 7.73%. War Wimps!
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #216
              War realists.
              “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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              • #217
                Back to the real world of global economics...

                Germany is on the brink of losing their AAA bond rating.

                Bond yields in the US continue to hover at generational lows.

                The US corporate bond risk premium has declined significantly from historical wides.

                Commercial paper issuance is back to the upswing.

                Sten's company gets folded into an affiliate and everyone has to find a new job!

                Just the usual stuff.
                Be the bid!

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                • #218
                  Over the weekend I heard two analysts starting to talk about a growth stock rally.

                  According to Morningstar, year to date,
                  US Growth Stocks +5%
                  US Core Stocks +1%
                  US Value Stocks -3%

                  Has all the air finally been let out of growth stocks?
                  Or do buyers have short memories?
                  And how much will growth stocks get hammered when interest rates rise from historical lows?
                  Old posters never die.
                  They j.u.s.t..f..a..d..e...a...w...a...y....

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                  • #219
                    Why is Germany on the brink of losing its AAA? Aggregate state debt doesn't seem overly burdensome (~60% of economy). Is it just that growth is in the crapper?

                    p.s. It's nice to hear about normal stuff again after the war.
                    Last edited by DanS; April 21, 2003, 13:17.
                    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                    Comment

                    • #220
                      .
                      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                      • #221
                        Originally posted by DanS
                        Why is Germany on the brink of losing its AAA? Aggregate state debt doesn't seem overly burdensome (~60% of economy). Is it just that growth is in the crapper?

                        p.s. It's nice to hear about normal stuff again after the war.
                        Haven't really read into it but I assume it's the (projected) budget deficit combined with bleak growth forecasts and disappointment with pension reform that's behind it.

                        On a sidenote, who believes the European Stability and Growth Pact is suffocating economic growth?
                        DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                        • #222
                          Originally posted by DanS
                          .
                          Yep
                          We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution. - Abraham Lincoln

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                          • #223
                            I believe it's not the ESGP, but rather lack of strauctural reform that's killing growth in Europe.
                            Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
                            Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
                            Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.

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                            • #224
                              Do you have some examples of reforms that would have high immediate payback?
                              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                              • #225
                                Originally posted by Saras
                                I believe it's not the ESGP, but rather lack of strauctural reform that's killing growth in Europe.
                                What!?!? You think the growth of the economy occurs as a result of work and projects and free markets? Not central bank shenanigans?

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