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Knight him Rt.Hon Lord of Weirnameshire or make hime Warren de Buffet with a chateau and a vineyard?
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Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb !
Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes. -
Marquis Varrain de Buffet sounds about right. A la votre!“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Btw, does that mean we can welcome Warren Buffet to the circle of pitiful opportunity-lacking Euros?
Roland: That's what I was thinking. To be fair, though, WB's investments are the type that would make the entrenched class conscious Euros happy.
When did GP get banned?
Sten: Don't know. Apparently, he made one too many Greek troll and cheesed off MarkG.
On another subject, what does everybody make of Sony, Toshiba and Hitachi moving to a more US-like corporate governance style?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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"To be fair, though, WB's investments are the type that would make the entrenched class conscious Euros happy."
No, the entrenched class conscious Euros dream of something more along the lines of Dubya's "business" "career".“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Following up on discussions that I had with Colon while he was in the States, the INS just released its estimate of the number of illegal immigrants in the US (i.e., we don't have a clue where they are or what they're doing). Who knows if their lowballing the number. It comes out at 7 million, 70% of whom are Mexican nationals (or 5% of Mexico's population and probably much more of the potential workforce).
This would also be a sizeable portion of our workforce, too, I guess.Last edited by DanS; February 1, 2003, 01:18.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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You know, it just occurred to me that I haven't heard the "zero inflation goal" blah for several years now. Amazing how the world changes.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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That's because anyone with any sense knew complete price stability was a silly thing to want to have..........of course you can get exposure for your radical ideas in the short term, but ultimately reality triumphs.Comment
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Yeh, the nutters came out of the woodwork on this one. It's fun to see these things sometimes in the more popular press, though, even if just for giving the opportunity to say "you're nuts!".I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Well it's always tempting to try and look deeply insightful by flying in the face of conventional thinking (not thinking about any poster in particular
).......unfortunately it's very often conventional for very good reasons.
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And even more often conventional thinking serves best as a contrarian indicator.“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)Comment
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Sten: Do you have an updated outlook on S&P earnings in '03 and '04? How is the corporate debt market going and how long do you think it will take to trickle down to the bottom line in large numbers?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Hersh - hence my sig - buy when everybody else is selling... The frustrating thing is when you are being contrarian, and conventional thinking starts to agree with you!
Dan-yo-san - the average number I have seen for the SPX for '03 is $51.70, with 8% growth for '04. What does that make for '04.......... $55.84. Still a fair amount of dispersion in the numbers though, I have seen a $44 for '03. $51.70 gives us a 16.5 or so P/E. '03 is still trickling in but I think a low $47 is going to be the result --> 17.7x. Of course all of that is continuing operations. With all of the write-offs the EPS number for '03 would have been $28.5 or so.
The good news in earnings was that on average everyone was a little too pessimistic about Q4 and the numbers are going to be 7% higher than what was projected before earnings season. Then again the projections had come down about 15%.
The corp bond market continues to recover because of the better EBITDA numbers. With the cuts in CapEx that we saw in '02, the turn around was huge. Of course the cut in CapEx cratered the companies that would have benefited from the spending, but....
For example Sprint did $1.3B in free cash flow in '02, compared to $-4.5B in '01; that is a $5.8B turn around. They did it on roughly identical (+4%) sales and they eliminated short-term borrowings. Multiply that time the number of companies doing the same thing and you can see the level of balance sheet fortification going on.
The (US market #s) investment grade corporate bond market did +3.08% in Q4 while Treasuries did just +0.46%. High yield bonds did +6.74% in Q4. The same trend was in place for January. Tsy did -0.30% and Corps did +0.32%. Junk was +3.33%. All of those numbers are in the context of the reverse results during the preceeding several quarters. US High Yield still lost money during '02 even with the 6.74 in Q4, for example.
So the bond markets are reflecting anticipated improved conditions in the US, and globally. The speed with which a lot of companies have shored-up their balance sheets has been remarkable, and any wiff of demand could bring them back to the CapEx table. Unfortunately for bond investors, positive relative returns in corporates, would probably then be offset by negative nominal returns in the underlying Treasury market, so it will probably be a wash year for bonds in general.
I am looking for an acceleration in Q2, but that is earlier than most.Be the bid!Comment
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I gave this thread 5 stars!
If you guys are illuminati just remember that you owe me, k?Long time member @ Apolyton
Civilization player since the dawn of timeComment
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Thanks, Sten.
Looks like it might be time to start picking up some here and there.
I wonder what impact the changed pension investment return assumptions will have on earnings going forward...I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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OK, let's try this one again. I'm curious about it...
I've got a pretty basic question that I'm hoping someone here can answer.
Why does anybody buy corporate bonds, when government bonds offer almost the same total returns as do corporate bonds?
From Ibbotson's Stock, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook 2002, page 31, geometric mean of annual total returns 1926 to 2001...
Long-Term Corporate Bonds = 5.8%
Long-Term Gov't Bonds = 5.3%
Which means that the default risk premium is only 0.5%.
Edit: As I understand it, 2002 had one of the highest corporate debt default risk premiums on record, but I guess this wouldn't make much difference in the overall numbers.Last edited by DanS; February 9, 2003, 23:10.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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