Predictions for 2003

[monkspider]

1. Outrage over the American invasion of Iraq will lead to the start of a worldwide alliance to halt American aggression. It will include much of Europe, and China. It will be a few years before it is crystalized but the seeds will be planted this year.
2. Sometime around September or October, America will reignite a new Korean war. Despite it's superior technology, the war will be eventually be forced into a stalemate. Many South Koreans will come to the North's defense.
3. In the Iraqi war, which will start sometime in mid March, Iraq's armies will collapse almost immediately. It will be a true 21st century blitzkrieg. The cost ot Iraqi civilians will be very high, much higher than that of the original Gulf War. The region will eventually collapse into chaos, despite America's attempts to set up a pro-US government. The regime will almost be uninanmously rejected by the Iraqi people. As a result of this war, the hatred against America in the middle-east will increase by several orders of magnitude. Many Arabs will realize that they must unite, or they will become puppets of the USA as well. This will eventually lead to a United Arabia as political entity seven to ten years from now.
4. The world economy will continue to plummet, Bush's attempts to revitalize it will prove impotent.
5. There will be a fairly major terrorist event somewhere in California after the Iraqi war. It won't be on the scale of 9/11 but it will shock and anger the American people. Expect this to happen around July.
6. This second terrorist event will cause Bush to further tighten his grip on America. Expect more draconian "Patriot Act" style legislation.
7. Another major event of the year will be war between Israel and some of it's neighbors after Sharon is assasinated. Israel will gain the upperhand until the UN eventually forces an armistice. Out of this conflict will come a dynamic new Israeli leader much more interested in a lasting peace with it's neighbors.
8. After the Iraqi war, a pact will form between America, Britain, and Russia in the name of "fighting terror". TThere will be a great deal of dissent on the part of the unwilling British people.
8. Despite seeming to be such a year of troubles on the surface, this year will provide a great deal of hope. The sense of worldwide brotherhood that will result in the unofficial alliance that forms to take a stand against America's expansionism will be unmatched since the world united against Germany. As I said. it will take a few years for the alliance to develop. But out of this alliance comes the hope of the world. The turning point in this alliance will come when America uses a small tactical nuke to try to breakup the stalemate in the Korean theatre, in response to false allegations of Korean troops using gas on the Americans which will occur in 2004, but that's another thread entirely.....

[Dinner]

Wow monkspyder, aren't you just a shinning optimist?

[Capt Dizle]

Originally posted by monkspider
1. Outrage over the American invasion of Iraq will lead to the start of a worldwide alliance to halt American aggression. It will include much of Europe, and China. It will be a few years before it is crystalized but the seeds will be planted this year.
2. Sometime around September or October, America will reignite a new Korean war. Despite it's superior technology, the war will be eventually be forced into a stalemate. Many South Koreans will come to the North's defense.
3. In the Iraqi war, which will start sometime in mid March, Iraq's armies will collapse almost immediately. It will be a true 21st century blitzkrieg. The cost ot Iraqi civilians will be very high, much higher than that of the original Gulf War. The region will eventually collapse into chaos, despite America's attempts to set up a pro-US government. The regime will almost be uninanmously rejected by the Iraqi people. As a result of this war, the hatred against America in the middle-east will increase by several orders of magnitude. Many Arabs will realize that they must unite, or they will become puppets of the USA as well. This will eventually lead to a United Arabia as political entity seven to ten years from now.
4. The world economy will continue to plummet, Bush's attempts to revitalize it will prove impotent.
5. There will be a fairly major terrorist event somewhere in California after the Iraqi war. It won't be on the scale of 9/11 but it will shock and anger the American people. Expect this to happen around July.
6. This second terrorist event will cause Bush to further tighten his grip on America. Expect more draconian "Patriot Act" style legislation.
7. Another major event of the year will be war between Israel and some of it's neighbors after Sharon is assasinated. Israel will gain the upperhand until the UN eventually forces an armistice. Out of this conflict will come a dynamic new Israeli leader much more interested in a lasting peace with it's neighbors.
8. After the Iraqi war, a pact will form between America, Britain, and Russia in the name of "fighting terror". TThere will be a great deal of dissent on the part of the unwilling British people.
8. Despite seeming to be such a year of troubles on the surface, this year will provide a great deal of hope. The sense of worldwide brotherhood that will result in the unofficial alliance that forms to take a stand against America's expansionism will be unmatched since the world united against Germany. As I said. it will take a few years for the alliance to develop. But out of this alliance comes the hope of the world. The turning point in this alliance will come when America uses a small tactical nuke to try to breakup the stalemate in the Korean theatre, in response to false allegations of Korean troops using gas on the Americans which will occur in 2004, but that's another thread entirely.....

1.American forces quickly swamp Iraq, which is reorganized immediately by the Bush administration. Existing anti-Saddam forces get the shaft as a democratic government and constitution is quickly put into place. Bush vows to maintain a permanent military force in Iraq for the next fifty years or more to ensure regional stability. American companies move in to establish partnerships with other nations to appease grumbling. With its new source of oil secure much pressure is eased on American global strategic concerns. America's action effectively fills much of the void that was left in the world's power structure after the collapse of the Soviet Union and reverses the elder Bush's policy blunder at the close of Desert Storm. Iraqi oil pays for the war.

2.Once North Korea sees the forceful action by Bush in Iraq they quickly take a new tone in negotiations and the reactors are cut off. The failure of the North Korean government, long recognized, continues to eat away at its roots toward the inevitable day that the government will be replaced.

3.The establishment of a democratic Iraq with close western ties causes uproar among Islamic fundamentalists and Arab nationalists. Other than scattered incidents this amounts to a tempest in a teapot.

4.The recession will continue throughout the year as it becomes generally accepted that the only way to regain positive growth is to concentrate on expanding global markets. Accelerating long-term investment in the third world becomes the game plan among US corporations. Thereby sacrificed on the altar of corporate greed the average American worker becomes even more disenfranchised. Therein lie the seeds of the rebirth of the Democratic Party.

5.Terrorist activity will continue but the likelyhood of a seminal event over the short term is not more than one in three in the US for the year. Odds are one in two for the Brits/EU combo. Russian terror incidents and strict Russian response will dominate the headlines.

6.Democrats will continue to scream about civil rights violations but George Bush will ride out the year and then adroitly shuffle the anti-terrorism agencies and legislation prior to the election to strip the Dems of one of their strongest campaign issues.

7.Israel will continue to tighten its grip on Palestinians. Arafat is assassinated by Arab radicals leading to a brief bloodletting among competing Palestinians over the future leadership. No one can tell the outcome.

8.Bush publicly distances himself from Putin's brutal responses to terrorist incidents but privately ties between the US, Russia and China grow closer as the two eastern powers eye the potential of the emerging EU with great trepidation.

9.Strong American action will reestablish stability to many regions of the world and will rekindle a resurgence of favorable opinion of the US in many corners of the world. College students will continue, however, to foam at the mouth ineffectively.

[Ted Striker]

1. All w ankers shall cease from upskirting.
2. Alexander's Horse is removed from the Chancellor's position.
3. DROT Infiltratives capture Osama Bin Laden

[Kontiki]

The US will officially change its name to "The United States of We Know What's Best So Just Shut Up and Take It, and the Single Land Where God's Great Light Shines Down Upon". In the interests of brevity, it will be more commonly known as "Screw Everyone".

[Dinner]

Kontiki, I'm sensing a little hostility in that prodiction.

[Starchild]

1) A war in Iraq is over quickly as the Iraqi defense collapse. However, post war institutions are never sorted out to any satisfactory degree due to lack of long term attention and political will on the behalf of the Americans. Deprived of an organised and powerful central administration, Iraq only serves to increase the tensions in the Middle East. Ten years or so down the line, this comes back to punish the Americans.

2) North Korea is nothing but sabre rattling and teasing the Bush administration. They quiet down and get back to the hard task of starving their citizens, scaring the Japanese, and being generally erratic.

3) China and Russia continue to bask in the glow of the War on Terror, having overnight gone from barely trusted competitors to allies in the War on Terror. Russia can get away with what it wants and China is smart enough to stay quiet and let the exports flow.

4) EU opinion continues to harden against an America seemingly drunk on power after it's "victory" in Iraq. The German election was just the start as more politicians find that opposing American unilateralism can win them votes. The British government is in for a shock as the mood of the British people is made clear.

5) The ECB is slowly reformed to loosen up the Growth and Stability Pact. Bush's big talk on taxes doesn't help the economy. Poor nations continue to suffer due to Western tariffs and subsidies. No one has the political will necessary to take down the tariff barriers and stop the subsidies, which would lead to a healthier global economy.

6) Terrorism remains the hot topic for the news. The Isrealis and the Pals continue to slide deeper into their respective madness, making peace in Isreal nearly impossible.

[Lord Merciless]

1. Iraq will be turned into the next Japan.

2. North Korea will shut up and everything returns to as before.

3. Germany and Japan will stay in recession, America has some recoveries, Russia will be growing steadily, and China will continue its boom.

4. Richard Cheney will either be dead or drop out from the next presidential race.

5. US will be moving closer to Russia and China in the war on terror while Europeans keep whining about their tactics.

6. A major terrorist act will hit Europe.

7. The Pope finally kicks the bucket.

8. Same mess in Israel and Palestine.

9. Saudis replace Iraq's place in the 'Axis of Evil'.

10. I will get my master's degree.

[Kontiki]

Maybe just a little

Of course, I'm just exagerating. Besides, there's already a good chunk of people who already think that's the official name, and an even larger chunk who wouldn't know one way or the other if you asked them.

[Dinner]

How about this one:

5. A member state of the EU runs up budget deficits in excess of the 3% of GDP limit. The European Central Bank is powerless to stop it and, since the first group gets away with breaking the deficit limit, other EU members also exceed the limit. This cause a drastic decline in the Euro visa vi the Greenback, Pound, and Yen.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless
1. Iraq will be turned into the next Japan.

Not terribly likely, since Iraq isn't rediculously far ahead of all other states in the region in terms of technology and industrial production, nor does it have a homogenous population or strong national identity.

2. North Korea will shut up and everything returns to as before.

Everything will go back to normal, but not before the US, perhaps using Japan or South Korea as a decoy, agrees to some measure of concessions (eg: food deliveries).

[Lord Merciless]

Originally posted by Kontiki
Not terribly likely, since Iraq isn't rediculously far ahead of all other states in the region in terms of technology and industrial production, nor does it have a homogenous population or strong national identity.

"Turning into next Japan" means that Iraq will become a prosperous and powerful ally of the US. Things don't have to work out in the exactly same way like Japan though.

Everything will go back to normal, but not before the US, perhaps using Japan or South Korea as a decoy, agrees to some measure of concessions (eg: food deliveries).

Which is the same thing as before.

[Kontiki]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless


"Turning into next Japan" means that Iraq will become a prosperous and powerful ally of the US. Things don't have to work out in the exactly same way like Japan though.

Yeah, but the factors that let Japan become a prosperous, powerful ally of the US simply aren't present in Iraq. Japan managed to turn around fast and prosper because they had a good base and common identity. Iraq has neither. The tensions between the different ethnic and religious groups alone are enough to ensure troubles for Iraq.

Which is the same thing as before.

Agree with you here.

[Thue]

Originally posted by Lancer
Turkey will invade Greece and be utterly defeated by swarthy, manly, Greek men in arms in a very heterosexual manner.

Hairy. Hairy, swarthy, manly, Greek men. How could you forget that? Can't you see what such glaringly obvious mistakes do to the credibility of your predictions?

[Ted Striker]

Yeah, but the factors that let Japan become a prosperous, powerful ally of the US simply aren't present in Iraq. Japan managed to turn around fast and prosper because they had a good base and common identity. Iraq has neither. The tensions between the different ethnic and religious groups alone are enough to ensure troubles for Iraq.

Yes, but having a common identity is not necessary to become a prosperous nation. Secondly with the US overseeing the whole place, that keeps those differences in check while things get on track.

It also took Japan many years to reach the stage they are at now. There was a time when "Made in Japan" meant you were buying utter crap. Now that label carries with it the highest quality in the world (tied with Germany).

Iraq also has one of the largest oil fields in the world sitting under it, and contrast that with Japan where there were absolutley no natural resources available.