U.S. Election Predictions/Results

[Boris Godunov]

For those Americans watching the polls today, here is a thread for posting predictions and results.

Overall Predictions:

The Democrats will maintain a status quo in the Senate, keeping control by a 1-seat margin.

The Republicans will hold the House, possibly gaining a seat or two, but the Democrats may surprise in the close races and pick up some (not enough to take control, however).

The Democrats will pick up at least 3 governorships, which will be their most significant gain of the election.

Individual Races:

Governors:

NY: Pataki (R), no contest. The only real question is if McCall (D) can come in respectably or not. While Golisano (I) looked strong a week ago for 2nd place, he lost ground and will be 3rd for sure.

CA: Davis (D), handily. The Republicans really botched this one.

MD: Townsend (D) will pull off a skin-of-her-teeth victory, despite her awful campaign against Erlich (R).

FL: Bush (R) wins reasonably comfortably, as McBride's campaign went limp lately.

IL: Democrats pick this one up, first time in 3 decades I believe.

KS: Surprisingly, looks like the Dems will win this one as well.

PA: Ditto.

Senate Races:

MN: Mondale (D) wins, narrowly.

MS: Carnahan (D) loses, seat goes back to the GOP.

TX: Coyne (R) wins over Kirk (D), despite Kirk's recent surge.

NC: Dole (R) wins, but it's closer than expected.

AR: Hutchinson (R) is defeated handily by Pryor (D), so seat switches to Dems

NH: Too close to really predict, but I sense Shaheen (D) won't be able to eke past Sununu (R), so it stays GOP.

GA: Cleland (D) keeps it, barely

CO: Democrat gain as Strickland (D) beats the pathetic Allard (R)

NJ: Safely kept Democratic by Lautenberg.

SD: Tricky, but I think the incumbent Johnson (D) is in real trouble, so I give the edge to Thune (R). Embarrassing for Daschle.

LA: Landrieu (D) will hold the seat, eventually, even if a run-off is needed.

[Stefu]

66666, the number of the *BIG* beast.

[Bereta_Eder]

Doesnt rhyme

[DanS]

I don't agree on MD Gov and MN Senate. You have to give the edge to good politicians over bad (or over the hill, etc.). Coleman is a very disciplined candidate and is hungry (MN). Kennedy Townsend is unexciting in the extreme (MD).

Don't know too much about GA, but I think the GOP might pick this one up.

LA Senate is interesting. If it's 49 seats for the GOP, then this runoff will be nationalized--a race with no faces other than Bush's and Daschle's. If it's 48 seats for the GOP, then Landrieu is the better politician and will win. If it's 49 seats for the GOP, then the GOP wins and takes Senate control.

Lastly, re the governors races (other than MD), you are probably being too generous to the GOP.

[Jac de Molay]

Michigan will elect its first woman governor - former attorney general and Democrat Jennifer Granholm. Democratic state senators and reps will retain their seats. Voter turnout is expected to be higher than usual for off-year elections, which should give the Dems a nice boost.

[Ming]

In Illinois

Senate... (Dem) Durbin over Durkin unless the sun rises in the West, or stupid Dems can't figure out the difference between a "b" and "k".

Governor
Too close to call. It will really depend on where Voter Turnout will be the highest. If Chicago can get out the vote today, the Dems will win.

[DanS]

Here's a good viewer's guide...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A6456-2002Nov5.html

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by DanS
I don't agree on MD Gov and MN Senate. You have to give the edge to good politicians over bad (or over the hill, etc.).

No, I give the edge to the state party's ability to get out their vote. In MD, the Dems have historically gotten out a lot on election days, even midterms. I think this will give Townsend the edge.

The Mondale prediction is a hunch based on his popularity and that he seems a tad more in-synch with the state's idealogy.

[JohnT]

Democrats will lob lawsuit after lawsuit in closely contested races where they lose. That's my prediction.

http://www.drudgereport.com/mc2.htm

[OzzyKP]

My prediction:

The world is shocked as Libertarians pick up a majority of the seats in the US Congress. Republicans drop to minor party status and dissappear within a few years.


oh well....


Really though, I agree with your overall predictions Boris. But I'm with Dan on MD Governor race, KKT is dumb as a brick and will loose a squeaker. Though of course it didn't hurt W....

[Boris Godunov]

Oh, I think KKT has run a horrible campaign...I just think that MD's strong Democrat organization will give her a slight edge in a close race.

[Gatekeeper]

Heh. I'm a moderate Republican rooting for Tim Johnson in South Dakota.

Gatekeeper

[OzzyKP]

The key question of today though is whether or not Che lives up to the quote in David Floyd's profile:

"I need a political party with some integrity. Think I'll vote Libertarian in Novermber. - chegitz guevara"

[Ming]

I only voted for one Libertarian candidate today... less than usual. It seems like the Illinois Libertarian Party this year had more loonies than usual. But I'll give them credit for providing much humor. After reviewing all the websites for the different parties, at least the Libs web site had me laughing... while the others were a total bore.

[Bosh]

Well there'll be one less independent governor with Baldacci grabbbing Maine easily, he probably won't get close to 80% of the vote like last time he ran for congress though