Is some sort of pincer movement on Iran coming?

[Sandman]

Do you think anybody will cry a tear when Saddam is gone?

Definitely. Who would have predicted that Afghans would mourn the Taleban? But they do.

[Ned]

One Foot in the Grave, what you say here is quite true. Without the support of the people, or significant portion of the people, there is no way to really win a peace after a war. I am sure that the German people did not like the Americans or the British occupying Germany after a war. But this all changed with the inception of the Marshall plan and reinstitution of democratic self-government.

Certainly what you said about the "opinion of the people" was very true in case of Vietnam. When we took over command of the war and particularly when we assassinated Diem, we lost the support the population of South Vietnam. The longer we stayed in Vietnam, the further away peace became. The light at the end of the tunnel was the headlamp of the North Vietnamese heading right for us.

Afghanistan was a success primarily because the Taliban was not only hated, but was opposed by the Northern Alliance. This allowed us to both conquer Afghanistan and leave the government to people of Afghanistan. We need to do the same in Iraq.

Which you are not considering, One Foot, is that both the Kurds and the Shi'ites will be with us in the upcoming conflict and will willingly participate in new coalition government. The Kurds and the Shi'ites together constitute 80 percent of the population of Iraq. The situation with the Sunni Moslems may be different; but even here there should be some leaders who are not associated with Saddam, perhaps some who are currently in exile, that would be willing to join coalition government. Iraq, has every potential to turn out to be a great success.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Originally posted by Ned

Which you are not considering, One Foot, is that both the Kurds and the Shi'ites will be with us in the upcoming conflict and will willingly participate in new coalition government. The Kurds and the Shi'ites together constitute 80 percent of the population of Iraq. The situation with the Sunni Moslems may be different; but even here there should be some leaders who are not associated with Saddam, perhaps some who are currently in exile, that would be willing to join coalition government. Iraq, has every potential to turn out to be a great success.

Hmmm if this what you say is true, than OK, it sounds sustainable, and if the Iraqi people would actually get rid of him, with foreign assistance that could work, but I haven't read something so positive yet.

[Ned]

One Foot, Iraqi opposition leaders visited Washington this summer to assess whether this time Washington was serious about removing Saddam. The last time they were urged to rise up against the dictator, they US pulled the rug out from under them, leaving them to be slaughtered by the Republican Guard. What they said after meeting with the US administration was that they believed the US was serious this time.

The Kurds in particular said they could mobilize 100,000 fighters. I don't know the number for the Shi'ites. But recently, the US authorized training and arming of 10,000 of the Iraqi opposition.

The bottom line, the Kurds and the Shi'ites are with us.

[OneFootInTheGrave]

Well, that is good, for sure, for Kurds I have heard, but not for Shiites. Knowing that the last time US watched while they were slaughtered, this is interesting, and well the way it is supposed to be done, if it is done. Still I am interested to see how will it actually plays out once the war starts.

[Kepler]

Originally posted by Ned
One Foot, Iraqi opposition leaders visited Washington this summer to assess whether this time Washington was serious about removing Saddam. The last time they were urged to rise up against the dictator, they US pulled the rug out from under them, leaving them to be slaughtered by the Republican Guard. What they said after meeting with the US administration was that they believed the US was serious this time.

Well, by definition you're going to hear "yes, we are with you" when you assemble that sort of an expat group. It's like those hearings with Cuban defectors who -- any guesses? -- all hate Castro. Selection error.

At best, the Iraq population will either welcome the US (unlikely), ignore us and simply deal with the continuing struggle of assuring a minimum daily caloric intake for their kids (more likely), or immediately launch their own series of internecine, self-defeating, Balkanesque vengeance killings but leave us out of it (most likely). I don't think there's much of a chance that they'll actually rise up Stalingrad-style and defend their government to the last man.

[Roland]

"Yeh, but Falwell & co don't go around murdering people."

Nor do most islamists. But your radical anti-abortionists go around killing people.

"Even died-in-the-wool Islamists such as the Saudis will make deals with the devil."

But not the terrorist fringe. It's a lot less likely than dealing with ETA or the IRA even, more like the RAF.

"Do you believe that it's merely enthusiasm?"

Don't understand that question....

"A context in which to understand the Islamists' motives and a strategy to deal with the terrorist strain."

Understanding their motives, it's pretty much the same as with all totalitarian ideologies. Actually pretty strange, this looks like a western import at its roots....

The "terrorist strain" has 3 levels in this case: The activists, the supporters, and the state sponsors. The biggest state sponsor was taken out with the Taliban; the evidence for others is murky, eg Saudi and Pakistani support seems to be indirect and/or not government controlled (wel, if you can call the Saudi rulership structure "government"). So I don't see much to gain at that level by war.

The activists are a police problem - for you that means Ashcroft/Ridge. Man, you're ****ed.

The supporters are a political problem and far from a homogenous group. You'd have to look at that country-by-country. In general taking the legal and moral highground while ignorantly blessing every violation of laws by Israel, and supporting incompetent corrupt regimes all over the place, doesn't help in dealing with the problem. The US is in an ugly quagmire there, as it has zero credibility to start with.