I hate the Chinese method of population control, but are they right?

[Adam Smith]

Wode liang fen:

Originally posted by Alinestra Covelia
(As an aside, both the Three Gorges Dam project and the Northern Irrigation project have met with nothing but doubt and criticism from western press. Whether they are genuinely flawed, or whether this reaction is the result of spin and politics, is a question I'm still pondering.)

Best argument I have heard about Three Gorges is that the Chinese could have gotten better flood control, almost the same hydro, and a lot less risk by building a series of smaller dams along Yangtze tributaries. But then again there are the various historical and mythical attempts to control the waters.

In the countryside, officials tend to have greater freedom in governing (and greater scope for corruption) than in the cities.

My understanding is that most of the abuses appear to be in isolated rural areas, and may involve forced abortions, tracking women's menstral cycles, and infanticide. From what I understand, many of these problems were more common when there was tighter communal control.

Recent studies show that farmers and laborers rarely if ever heed the one-child injunction, as the aid they would receive from the government does not equal the usefulness of bearing another child to aid to the workforce.

Do you have a link or source for these studies? This would appear to be at odds with other studies which indicate that 90 percent of abandoned Chinese children (almost all girls, in southern and central rural areas) have a jeje (older sister).

[Ethelred]

The US imports a lot of food though. Meat from Australia for McDonalds. Lots of fruits and vegatables from south of the equator so we can have the stuff out of season. There are tankers that carry orange juice to the US.

However the US is a net exporter. Especially in terms of calories.

[Roland]

The US is the biggest net exporter; the EU also has surplusses in almost every key produce despite restrictions on productions, with animal feed (esp soy) being the notable exception. China may be about self sufficient overall but on pretty low quality.

[Krayzeenbk]

I know for sure that Russia currently has the capacity to feed itself (as it has done on a number of separate occasions).

However, Russia rarely is able to feed itself due to various economic problems.

So as conditions in Russia improve, the amount of imports is likely to decrease and the amount of exports is likely to increase very rapidly.

[muxec]

It's good method. Israel got the GreatWall idea from China and must get the population-control method from the same source.

[Sandman]

I don't think that there is any developed country which could not feed itself in an emergency, except maybe for Japan, which imports over half its calories.

[Arrian]

Alinestra,

Great post. In particular:

Now consider China. Its population has known subjugation by foreign powers, civil war between Communists and Nationalists, and finally widespread chaos caused by internal power struggles near the end of the Mao era. China is a country where the traditional viewpoint has been that a leader must be strong foremost, and fair only if possible. Traditionally, weakness has always been a far greater crime for a leader than cruelty. So long as the ruler staves off the approach of chaos and disorder, the populace is much more willing to put up with authoritarian rule than, say, the liberated West tends to.

My father worked in international publishing and did quite a bit of business with Chinese living in Malaysia (not to mention being a history buff in general), and told me essentially the same thing. The courses I took in high school and college on China indicated the same: order and stability are paramount, because disorder and instability tends to lead to millions of people dying.

I don't have a problem with economic disincentives for having more than 1 child, especially since it's not my country. The rural abuses sound pretty bad, but I don't think you can condemn the policy because of the unsanctioned actions of some local despots... err, party functionaries.

-Arrian

[Venom]

Is it ok if I just hate the Chinese? It's so much easier than hating just a specific factor of their lifestyle.

[mindseye]

Population pressure is causing many problems here, but surprisingly food doesn't seem to be one of them. Far more serious are water shortages and pollution. Besides the one-child policy, China is addressing the issue through its efforts in agricultural research. The PRC is now one of the world leaders in agricultural cloning and genetic research.

-o-

China may be about self sufficient overall but on pretty low quality.

Really? I thought China was currently a net food exporter! In fact, I recently read that in Nanjing, milk production has reached such high levels that the market is now 100% saturated, and that fresh milk is routinely dumped in the river!

-o-

Regarding "little emperors", it's shocking to see the number of obese boys in China. I'm sure it's worse here in Shanghai, where the number of fat boys is appalling. Here, "fat" is equated with "strong", "healthy" and "priviledged". On top of AIDS and lung cancer (from cigarette smoking), in a few decades China is going to be facing widespread health problems related to male obesity (e.g. heart disease).

-o-

From what I've seen it sure seems true that country people often have larger families (it's easy to spot peasant families in places like the subway). I recently dated a country guy who was the fifth of five sons! These peasant parents selfishly attempt to insure their later years at a frightful cost to their "secret" offspring. These young people have no official ID, and are thus locked out of good jobs, housing, etc., living their lives on the margins of society.

[mindseye]

Is it ok if I just hate the Chinese?

Sure! You can be just as big an arsehole as you want!

[Lefty Scaevola]

Originally posted by Roland
The US is the biggest net exporter; the EU also has surplusses in almost every key produce despite restrictions on productions, with animal feed (esp soy) being the notable exception. China may be about self sufficient overall but on pretty low quality.

What is the net for Europe on food?

[muxec]

Ethelred, your factbook contains wrong information. I read Israel entry and see two huge errors.

[Ethelred]

Its not my fact book. Its the CIAs but is more likely that you just have a difference of oppinion than it is that the CIA got it wrong. Of course they could but Israelies have there own point of view on a number of things.

So drop the other shoe.

What two things?

Like you didn't want me to ask allready.

[Dauphin]

Most populations in Western Europe are set to crash in the next few decades, when the baby boomers start to kick the bucket.

[Dauphin]

Industrialised countries are already complaining about the effects of falling fertility. An ageing population is putting pressure on social services and pensions. In the next few years they will start to see absolute falls in their populations. Japan expects its population to peak in 2006 and then fall by 14 per cent, or almost 20 million people, by 2050. Germany expects a similar drop. Italy and Hungary may lose 25 per cent, and Russia could lose a third by then.

If today's low fertility rates continue, then as the current baby boomers die, things will get drastically worse. If each generation's adults continue to produce not much more than half the number of children needed to replace them, McDonald calculates that the population of Italy is set to crash from 56 million now to just 8 million by 2100. Likewise Spain would lose 85 per cent of its population within the same time frame and Germany 83 per cent