How to win the War on Terrorism

[Roland]

"yeah, I suppose I'll have to finally grant you the point that Americans are stupid"

I don't think that, just that there is a lot of irrationality.

The idea that I vote against party X in government cause it doesn't provide me a job or a pay hike is just utterly bizarre in a society that is always preaching self reliance. I can't make any sense of it.

[Arrian]

Neither can I. So I don't bother.

Actually, our society stopped preaching self reliance a ways back. We're currently preaching "Me, Me, Me, MEEEEEEEE! Or I'll sue!"

-Arrian
(threadjack in full swing)

[Roland]

Originally posted by Arrian
Neither can I. So I don't bother.

We're currently preaching "Me, Me, Me, MEEEEEEEE! Or I'll sue!"

That's what you practice. The preaching hasn't caught up yet.

[Chris 62]

Originally posted by Roland
Well the current little rebound is standing on clay feet above an abyss, so.....

I don't quite get this "voting on wallet". Governments have little influence, and that is with central banks. I mean, there are really reasons enough to vote Bush out that are only about himself....

Perception is everything.
Bill had little to do with the booming 90s, yet the perception was he did.
Most people want results, or a scapegoat is selected (usually the guy nominally in charge) and a new president is elected.

Does that mean Iraq war in Winter 2003/4 ?

They are hinting for THIS fall.

[Roland]

Why this fall ?

And preparation time would be very short.

[Chris 62]

The longer he waits, the weaker he looks to some.

Look at all the people here that doubt any war is being fought.

He needs to do something that will make a splash, bombing upteenth cave in the middle of nowhere has grown stale.

[Roland]

Well even Bush will understand that an ill-prepared adventure will cost him dearly.

Maybe some air attacks. Do you think the US can pull off an Iraq invasion in a couple of months with the arabs opposed, the europeans unconvinced, and Turkey in political turmoil ?

[Chris 62]

An invasion isn't as difficult as you believe, it's all a matter of what kind of losses your willing to take.

The reason there was a long term build-up for dessert storm was a desire to:

a) keep losses low
b) Insure a quick victory.

Saddam's military will not fight for him, especially in the face of arial attack.

The US can, if no other help is offered, gather at least 8, possibly 12 carriers worth of aircraft (that means 600-1200 planes), as well as long range bombers from Deigo garcia (B-52s and B-1s flying arc-light missions, the dreaded carpet bombing so many mention and yet hasn't been done since Vietnam).

The US can put at least 2 divisions of marines ashore in an intial assault, as well as at least one full airborne divisions, backed by several infantry and armored divisions following the assault wave.

Keep in mind special forces will also try to soften the defense before hand.

IF the Iraqis stand and fight, losses could rise, but historically against this enemy, they will figure the US to leave after Saddam is dead, so they won't engage heavily.

[Lemmy]

Chris is right, the US really don't need any military help to beat Iraq, but it will damage relations if they attack without warning, or a reason to attack now, and not before. Something new must happen first before the US can sell their war to the EU, but i doubt Saddam will make a mistake now with the US waiting for it.

[Roland]

"a) keep losses low
b) Insure a quick victory"

Which is why I'd be surprised to see anything this fall....

"IF the Iraqis stand and fight, losses could rise"

IoW, it would be an unnecessary gamble...

[Roland]

"the US really don't need any military help to beat Iraq"

That's pretty obvious. The question is at what military and political price.

[Lemmy]

That's pretty obvious. The question is at what military and political price.

uhm..yes..see the rest of my post

[Chris 62]

Originally posted by Roland
Which is why I'd be surprised to see anything this fall....

Bush is not predictable, it's hard to say how he will decide.

IoW, it would be an unnecessary gamble...

I don't believe there is a heavy risk of failure, although you might get another OBL thing, Saddam uncaught and in hiding.

I also think it will inflame the muslim world like nothing else.

[Lemmy]

I also think it will inflame the muslim world like nothing else.

then there is also that, it could end up in a Isreal-Palestine cycle, the fundies terrorise the US, the US strike back at their country of origin, most likely a muslim country, other fundie-terrorists attack the US to "support" their brothers in their holy war, US strikes back at their country etc...

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Chris 62
I also think it will inflame the muslim world like nothing else.

IIRC, The same thing was said before the Libya raid.