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A multiple of maybe 20 is no level to start a new bull. 
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No, no basis for a bull.
But considering what is available otherwise...
Anyway, I sure wouldn't mind seeing some cheaper stocks than 825.Last edited by DanS; September 30, 2002, 10:05.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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What do you mean "But considering what is available otherwise..."? Would you prefer to buy US stocks that give a negative return, rather than money market funds, for the sake of them being US stocks?DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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What do you mean "But considering what is available otherwise..."?
I was thinking about this...Attached FilesI came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Last edited by DanS; September 30, 2002, 17:02.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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And I'm thinking about thisOriginally posted by DanS
What do you mean "But considering what is available otherwise..."?
I was thinking about this...
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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BTW, I've finally found a chart comparing the line of monetary policy suggested by the Taylor rule with the actual policy.
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Must be an attachment war...Attached FilesI came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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final chance to get textual
Otherwise I'm going to crush you and I'm not kidding.
Firstly, how about a chart with real rates instead of nominal?
Secondly, how about considering that the theory there's a causual relation between stock prices and treasury rates is an extremely dubious one? It keeps popping up for some reason while there's little to back it up.
BTW, that link to Roland's blog isn't working.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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BTW, don't take my "I'm going to crush you" too seriously.
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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I'm looking at it from an investor's perspective going forward rather than what "causes" the other at some time in the past. The fall in interest rates offered by the US Gov't has made stocks more valuable on an instant basis, whatever the market says at this point.
You might be able to earn 7-8% on the S&P at current prices on a stock that you buy and hold. The 10-year is offering 3.59%.
Making that comparison and buying the index is at least a rational proposition, even if it's not a scream of a deal.
Edit: fixed blog link.Last edited by DanS; September 30, 2002, 17:50.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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take this chart and...
The real rate listed as the "last" quote is from Aug month end, since Augie CPI isn't out yet. Note that the 10s are at 3.60 which would make real about a 1.80 if CPI is unch'ed.
The treasury rally has not carried corporate bonds with it by the way. BBB rated corps are option adjusted about 360bp over treasuries, which makes BBB corp yields more than twice treasury yields. This is the largest precentage gap recorded, to my knowledge.
As new mortgage production hits the pipelines, we should see a rather dramatic reversal. Should.
can't get it sized correctly, so in anger I'm gonna post it upside down.
Attached FilesBe the bid!Comment
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"As new mortgage production hits the pipelines, we should see a rather dramatic reversal. Should."
Why ? (that's not a "why" as in "normal situation", that's a "why" as in "with the GSEs and the Fed at the pump like crazy")
Btw, hope your people liked Mozart City. Or did they just arrive in time for the flooding ?
Btw2, I'm still curious what you meant with the new mortgage products.
Dan: Way too much diet coke to be me.
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Cool interview with Bob Solow, a truly great economist.Comment
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If you don't expect a bull for the moment, I'd be wise to put your money into something that at least guarantees you a positive return for the next year or two, wouldn't you think so?Originally posted by DanS
I'm looking at it from an investor's perspective going forward rather than what "causes" the other at some time in the past. The fall in interest rates offered by the US Gov't has made stocks more valuable on an instant basis, whatever the market says at this point.
You might be able to earn 7-8% on the S&P at current prices on a stock that you buy and hold. The 10-year is offering 3.59%.
Making that comparison and buying the index is at least a rational proposition, even if it's not a scream of a deal.
Edit: fixed blog link.
And besides, you're forgetting that inflation doesn't only affect treasury returns, but also profit growth, so that 7-8% might be a couple of % lower. (not sure what the average real return would be)
And if you expect inflation to pick up, why not purchase inflation protected treasuries?DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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