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I continue to buy the S&P at around 825. It seems like a reasonable buy at those prices.
(Yes, this is a shameless bump
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(Yes, this is a shameless bump
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Last edited by DanS; September 23, 2002, 12:04.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891 -
lemme help you bumpin'
Why?Originally posted by DanS
I continue to buy the S&P at around 825. It seems like a reasonable buy at those prices.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Nothing really specific, other than it seems reasonable and I'm tired of sitting in cash.
My thoughts were that since 1970, ex-dividends, the S&P has appreciated at about an 8% clip per annum. This is about 2% less than what was implied a couple of years ago, which seemed a little far-fetched.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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8% eh?, that's only 0.5% a year faster than the growth in nominal GDP.
DanS do you have any data on total stockmarket capitalization for those years (1970 and latest) ?19th Century Liberal, 21st Century EuropeanComment
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No, but I guess the total cap is dominated by the S&P 500.
w/dividend reinvestment
Edit: S&P puts the 500 market cap at $8.5 trillion and the 1000 market cap at $10 trillion.Last edited by DanS; September 23, 2002, 16:27.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Maybe you need to consider the deflation that seems so prevalent according to the commentators.
(ok just a silly joke)DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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BTW, the discussion about skyscrapers seems to have grind to a halt. (I don't really have to add anything anymore either) I still haven't found a convincing reason why they should be more prevalent (my fav word today) and taller in the US than in Europe (or Japan vs China, for that matter) but I got to hear very interesting stuff so I think this was a nice discussion.
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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If you wanna make money just get Colon to lend to you at the rate of inflation + 0.01% (hence making a real return) and invest the money as you see fit.
It seems that silly jokes abound this evening.
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What's wrong with the Wilshire ex-5000 ?Originally posted by el freako
DanS do you have any data on total stockmarket capitalization for those years (1970 and latest) ?Comment
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Yup, they paraded a bunch of clueless yankee clowns on CNN to comment on the german election, economy and digestive conditions. Absolutely bizarre. And pissfunny.Originally posted by DrSpike
It seems that silly jokes abound this evening.
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"but I got to hear very interesting stuff so I think this was a nice discussion"
I agree. I got to research something that I was totally clueless about before. Now I'm slightly less clueless.
My secretary is getting some numbers for me on $/ft^2 for residential structure construction in the DC area (not from the subdivision house mills). She's pretty clued in on this.
"Yup, they paraded a bunch of clueless yankee clowns on CNN to comment on the german election"
Turnabout is fair play.
Actually, new topic. How do you account for the stock market bubble in Paris, London, and Frankfurt that either followed or led the NYC downturn? Is this Greenspan's fault too?
DAX...Attached FilesI came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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The Dax chart vs the S&P looks pretty interesting by the by - points to further S&P weakness. Especially if all the damn foreigners would quit propping up our market at overvalued levels. Get your flight to quality money out of here, you are messing up our valuations!
S&P earnings are estimated at between $40 and $50; we are using 600 as a base for the S&P which would be 12-15x earnings. Not unrealistic, but still not really deep value.
The Treasury short squeeze is driving me crazy, there just isn't enough tradable debt out there and it is creating a self-feeding bubble for investment managers again. Just like the value (real econ) stocks were getting killed by the tech stuff in the late 90s, now we are having the treasury outperformance drive money from corporates.Be the bid!Comment
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We ran up along with the US bubble, and we came down faster. Smells a bit like bull capitulation here, a thing the US is still far away from. The US will drive us down further I suppose... so I thought there's value around ESX50 ~2500, now I'd say you should get those stocks a good deal cheaper (1500-2000).
Sten: What happened to your "value at S&P 900" ?
"Especially if all the damn foreigners would quit propping up our market at overvalued levels. Get your flight to quality money out of here...."
I guess the only ones doing a "flight to quality" into the US have to be Iraqis and North Koreans.... and I took my lottery money out of the US ages ago.Comment
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"value at 900" not sure what specific thread that might have been in, I think for a few years we have been saying that max for a while is ~1000 or 20*$50, and fair value is more like 750 with 825 being investable and 600 being a base value. Not that we couldn't or wouldn't trade below any of those.
A while back we were frustrated when the market wouldn't trade below 1000, and we were looking for at least 925. But who knows what I could have said, as a bond guy I get dizzy when numbers get bigger than 0.01.
I do like some stocks in here, though.
(The other day I said that futures closed at 911 and that sounds about right, but I was refering to 911 as the American style date September 11th, rather than a valuation call on the market.)
by the by, a few weeks ago I got a post card from my parents from Mozartville, and before I flipped it over to see who it was from I thought "how did Roland get my address?"
Be the bid!Comment
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Here is a nice article by Warren Buffett that I have read a couple of times since the end of last year. While I really didn't have it mind when I started putting money in at S&P @ 825, it puts context on the decision.
Looked at from a number of different ways, we're at an investable number for the S&P. Not a killer investment, but a rational investment nonetheless.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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