I believe the 2 nations would be like the U.S. and Canada. They would never fight each other again. They would be allies.
If the South had been allowed to secede peacefully--if the Civil War had never been fought--then I think the U.S. could have developed a relationship with the CSA similar to what we have with Canada, or at least Mexico. So that's how I would change history. Another benefit, I think, is that slavery would have died of natural causes instead of being ended by force, and race relations today would be the better for it.
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