Next Superpower?

[monolith94]

And what of India? In these geopolitical discussions, it's always about China rising, and the European Union gathering together, but I feel that India is a bit overlooked in terms of importance. It's got a lot of people, a good potential brain pool, and some good resources. Plus a strong culture. I suspect, also, that India and the US + West will move closer together as time moves forward...

[d_dudy]

Originally posted by 9 ECAC Titles
(China, India, Pakistan) + EU + US winding up in the same bind if the US went isolationist and the east Asian powers started to slip back towards being western vassal states.

yeah because india likes pakistan and china soooo much......



russia was a superpower and will be again soon. especially when they become the number one oil exporter soon and get more money from that.

the eu will be a superpower only when they have one commander, a general staff or something. untill then they're just members of an alliance to me.
do you guys have something like that? seperate from nato i mean.

china won't be a superpower for awhile. not untill they get a real navy and airforce. and i imagine they'll have to be a real people's republic not this commy-capitalist stuff they're trying.



my avatar is coooooooooool, by the way

[ranskaldan]

No....

In order for China to continue being a superpower, it must retain it's current weird mixed-system.
Just look at what happened to Russia. The entire country was propped up by the communist system. When that was gone, so was the economy and power.
And China is significantly more unstable considering it's much less urbanized and has a basically nonexistent middle class.
If China suddenly abandons the dictatorship today it will quite disastrous fall apart. It will be Bulgaria+Romania+Yugoslavia+Russia times ten. (The nicer cases, like Poland, Czech+Slovakia and Hungary, simply are too distant from the current social conditions of China. They are urbanized, industrialized societies.)

A real-live case is Indonesia. For thirty years Indonesia enjoyed relative stability and economic growth under a dictatorship. When Suharto the Dictator fell, so did Indonesia. Today Indonesia is falling apart and the currency (the Rupiah) has inflated by five times.

However, assuming that the communist party continues to hold onto power (which they seemed to be poised at doing), yes China will become the next power. But it's still a long way away... will the communist party survive that long? And besides, who can guarantee that the communist party won't suddenly go insane all over again, as it has done in the past? (and killed 50 million Chinese between 1949 to 1977?!)

Well.... no use speculating. Anything could happen.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Victor Galis
And one case doesn't do very much... try looking at all the wars/conflicts from 1400 to present, like my professor did. Took him about 6 years just to compile the list of wars/conflicts

Why 1400? The international system as we know it didn't come about until 1648.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I see China or India rising up. However, I don't think they'd eclipse the power of the EU+US, who, even though there is some tension will remain close friends because of (mostly) shared ideals.

[Estilpón]

Originally posted by 9 ECAC Titles
It's the Czechs.

We're just waiting for the right moment.

well, the right moment will be inside EU, I think

[Drekkus]

Originally posted by ranskaldan
However, assuming that the communist party continues to hold onto power (which they seemed to be poised at doing), yes China will become the next power. But it's still a long way away... will the communist party survive that long? And besides, who can guarantee that the communist party won't suddenly go insane all over again, as it has done in the past? (and killed 50 million Chinese between 1949 to 1977?!)

The Chinese have learned from the mistakes Russia made by going form communist to capitalist in a day. Total anarchy has turned Russia into a deep recession. China is very slowly opening up, and it will take some decades to come to its full economic potential.

The thread of mass murdering regimes is diminishing. It's still possible, but modern day communicationtechnology will bring the rest of the world to attention much quicker. And when that country has some economic importance, the world will react. If not, they're screwed.

[Zealot]

I don't think the British-American alliance will step down as the only true world superpower. When they do, then we can say "It's the end of the world as we know it".

[Estilpón]

Originally posted by Drekkus
The Chinese have learned from the mistakes Russia made by going form communist to capitalist in a day. Total anarchy has turned Russia into a deep recession. China is very slowly opening up,

However, China has been growing for years strongly and Russia seems that it leaves the crisis, the anarchy backs down...

and it will take some decades to come to its full economic potential.

but...an enormous potential

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by Asher
Nobody expects the Canadian invasion.

Ssssh. We're not supposed to talk about that.

[Juggler]

How about an alliance of Arab states? They would form a great empire expanding from Marocco to Iraq.

[ZoboZeWarrior]

Originally posted by Kyle
That's the major problem. Europe sees their potential rise as a counter-balance/competitor rather than a compliment to the US. That type of thinking will cause future problems.

But when it comes to military power, does/will Europe really have the stomach to be a military power?

???

Compliment to US ???

Have a look mum, I'm a big boy now !

1) EU want to be free from US influence, not to be its vassal. Of course, some country in EU are cleary under US influence...
It's logical that you use the right of the stronger on us. But it's our right to accept or to seek another solution. After the WWII, choosing between the influence of the URSS and USA, the choice was simple. But now things are different.

2) It will take time for countries which were opposed by 2 deadky world wars during the last century to unify their army and have total confidence in each other. Have still a different past and different allies.
Our military power is actully oriented for home protection. Just some 'elite' troopers are sent around the world, for "helping" diplomatic relationship.

Rome ne s'est pas faite en un jour!

The problem for europeans is not 'Damned, have we a chance to become a superpower in the futur ?'. The problems is, if we want not to disappear into the shadow of the other superpower we have to succeed our unification. I hope for our childrens we are on the good road. The theory of evolution apply itself to civilizations too.

[Eli]

Originally posted by Juggler
How about an alliance of Arab states? They would form a great empire expanding from Marocco to Iraq.

Even if they somehow unite, it will take them many many many years to make everything work. Not in this century.

[Sikander]

A definition of what "Superpower" means might have been helpful to this discussion at the outset.

My definition is:

A state that has strong conventional and nuclear capabilities and the ability to project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors.


This implies naval power and economic power as well as missles and armies.

[Rogan Josh]

Originally posted by Sikander
My definition is:

A state that has strong conventional and nuclear capabilities and the ability to project those forces to countries beyond their immediate neighbors.

That isn't a terribly good definition because then the UK and France and a few other countries would also be 'superpowers'.

I don't have any better idea though.

Also, does the term 'superpower' only include military and political power, or is some sort of cultural dominance required?