Who would be hurt more in a US-China ECONOMIC confrontation over Taiwan?

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha


Since we are taxing ~16.5% of gdp and spending ~23.4% of gdp. Economic growth isn't going to cover 8 percentage points. Perhaps if we were taxing 18% and spending 18.4%, but that just isn't the case. We will not be able to continue this, though it will probably fall on Hillary in 08 to do it.

Actually, that is one of the points of this very thread- the reason we CAN keep doing this is we borrow from Japan, and China, whom are willing to lend to us.

[Ned]

Originally posted by lord of the mark


If Taiwan does nothing beyond what its done, PRC wont act, I agree. If Taiwan declares independence, PRC will act, economics be damned. I also agree.

I think there is, however a grey area, where Taiwan may take actions that PRC will dislike enough that theyd attack IF they could get away with it, but wont if the consequences are too great. There are a range of such actions Taiwan can take, all falling under the general heading of "gradual desinification" They wont establish Taiwans de facto independence in international law, but they will make the gradual and peaceful integration of Taiwan into China less likely.

I assume that for this grey area, PRC's response will depend very much on the consequences, military, political, and economic.

This was all in response to your response to Ned.

A = Russia and China are cooperating militarily US should worry
B = Dont matter, US can hurt China economically
C = No, China would hurt US back economically harder

My point, is that in any almost any realistically conceivable crisis between the US and China, the economic damage WOULD hurt China sufficiently to deter. I dont think its realistic that Taiwan will declare UDI. Anything short of that, and my thesis holds. In a crisis away from Taiwan, where Chinas position in international law would be weaker, this would be even more true. Ergo, the US does not need to worry about Russian Chinese military cooperation, at least not under current conditions. QED.

Good post and fully agree. So long as Taiwan does rock the boat too much, nothing is going to happen militarily. As time goes on and economic ties grow, it will be even harder for anyone to consider doing something drastic as the costs will be too high.

Hopefully, the ChiComs will allow a peaceful transition to democracy and legalize the Taiwanese parties -- on condition, of course, of legalization of the Commie party in Taiwan. Elections would be interesting.

[Mr. Harley]

That will only be possible if the PRC starts doing a better job in Hong Kong. If they administer it as a truly semi-autonomous district, and show the Taiwanese that they are good to their word, reunification is possible. Otherwise it won't unless force is used.

[notyoueither]

I'd like some of what you're smoking, shawn.