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  • Originally posted by Ramo
    The Association of Muslim Scholars, the Sunni clerics org, was calling for a boycott anyway.


    And as you know the IIP called for a boycott because of Fallujah.
    And as YOU know, the one IIP cabinet member resigned from the IIP rather than leave the govt. The IIP can now negotiate its support for elections, and undoubtedly will.
    "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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    • Originally posted by lord of the mark


      Its about 8 battalions, IIRC. Which IS too small. But thats versus zero in June of this past year. And several more are in training. Which MAY be one reason why the insurgents feel time pressure.
      8 Battalions in 12 months is slow process- especially since in theory Iraq had a 300,000 man military prior to that.

      And some of the ING units are very useful, if not as high quality as the army battalions. The IP have had some local victories as well, but only against small insurgent forces.
      I say that Iyyad can't count of them becuase they are locally trained- loyalty is more local than national.
      If you don't like reality, change it! me
      "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
      "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
      "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

      Comment


      • Originally posted by GePap


        Thw big problem for the US was that before this offensive the US government had always been claiming the war in Vietnam was being won-that the VC was weak, that it was on the way out- by conducting an operation like Tet it exposed the lies of the government when it came to Vietnam.'

        One would think that the fact the US military is conducting major military operations 16 months after El presidente claimed such operations were over would show the public today ditto..
        the public got over that shock in April, if not earlier. The political campaign of 2004 may have actually helped in this regard - the mental state of the US wrt Iraq in October 2004 was QUITE different from that wrt to Viet Nam pre-tet - the impression was that vast areas of the country were no go zones (the recitation of Ramadi, Fallujah, Samarra, Najaf was steady from June to August, and minus Najah, even after that)

        As difficult as the current situation is, its far better than it looked in April, in August, or even in October.
        "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

        Comment


        • Originally posted by GePap


          8 Battalions in 12 months is slow process- especially since in theory Iraq had a 300,000 man military prior to that.

          we can argue if keeping the old army would have been a good idea, or was possible, and we can discuss the incompetence of the first few months in Iraq. Im not here to defend the competence of every admin decision in Iraq - you must be mistaking me for one of those Bush can do no wrong people. Thats not my point - the point is to indicate the direction in Iraq.
          "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

          Comment


          • Originally posted by GePap


            8 Battalions in 12 months is slow process- especially since in theory Iraq had a 300,000 man military prior to that.



            I say that Iyyad can't count of them becuase they are locally trained- loyalty is more local than national.
            IIUC they are locally recruited, but are trained by coalition forces, including NATO.
            "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

            Comment


            • One of Iraq's Veeps, Salih of the PUK, has just suggested pushing back elections. Is he frightened of the results?

              Iraq's deputy prime minister has indicated for the first time that the much-heralded elections due in January could be derailed by the country's violent insurgency.


              And as YOU know, the one IIP cabinet member resigned from the IIP rather than leave the govt. The IIP can now negotiate its support for elections, and undoubtedly will.


              IIRC, he was actually expelled (edit: from the IIP). But I'm not sure what's that supposed to demonstrate besides a guy wanting to latch onto power. As for negotiated support, where have you heard that?
              Last edited by Ramo; November 15, 2004, 16:43.
              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
              -Bokonon

              Comment


              • Originally posted by lord of the mark


                we can argue if keeping the old army would have been a good idea, or was possible, and we can discuss the incompetence of the first few months in Iraq. Im not here to defend the competence of every admin decision in Iraq - you must be mistaking me for one of those Bush can do no wrong people. Thats not my point - the point is to indicate the direction in Iraq.
                well, good for you, but that is ignoring the issue that training this replacement Iraqi army has been very slow going, meaning that US forces will need to remain in Iraq in strenght it seems for several years to come.
                If you don't like reality, change it! me
                "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

                Comment


                • As difficult as the current situation is, its far better than it looked in April, in August, or even in October.


                  Note that the keys to resolving the crises in April and August had been negotiation, not recklessly going in guns a blazin'.
                  "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                  -Bokonon

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Ramo
                    One of Iraq's Veeps, Salih of the PUK, has just suggested pushing back elections. Is he frightened of the results?

                    Iraq's deputy prime minister has indicated for the first time that the much-heralded elections due in January could be derailed by the country's violent insurgency.


                    And as YOU know, the one IIP cabinet member resigned from the IIP rather than leave the govt. The IIP can now negotiate its support for elections, and undoubtedly will.


                    IIRC, he was actually expelled. But I'm not sure what's that supposed to demonstrate besides a guy wanting to latch onto power. As for negotiated support, where have you heard that?

                    Given the need for security, given that there are still insurgents operating in Ramadi, Samarra, Mosul, and Baquba, and given that its only 2 months to the end of January, id say its pretty tight to meet that. A delay of a month or two might make sense.

                    As for negotiations with the IIP, its my surmise, but i think its a reasonable one.
                    "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

                    Comment


                    • Thing is, no one else in the gov't has supported the move. And Sistani would go ape****.
                      "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                      -Bokonon

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Ramo
                        As difficult as the current situation is, its far better than it looked in April, in August, or even in October.


                        Note that the keys to resolving the crises in April and August had been negotiation, not recklessly going in guns a blazin'.
                        They spent weeks trying to negotiate with the Shura council in Fallujah. Eventually sometimes negotiations fail, and you have to fight. If its thought you CANT fight, that weakens your negotiating position in future. My impression is that one of the reasons this was as well received in Iraq as it was, (compared to the disaster in April) was that negotiations were pursued aggressively FIRST, and force used as a last resort.
                        "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

                        Comment


                        • The Shiia want an election ASAP to get into power.
                          If you don't like reality, change it! me
                          "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                          "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                          "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Ramo
                            Thing is, no one else in the gov't has supported the move. And Sistani would go ape****.

                            Im not privy to the internal discussion of the Iraqi govt. And exactly how Sistani thinks remains a mystery. Certainly the results of Fallujah may help to relieve his fear that Allawi is ushering in a Baathist revival.
                            "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by GePap


                              well, good for you, but that is ignoring the issue that training this replacement Iraqi army has been very slow going, meaning that US forces will need to remain in Iraq in strenght it seems for several years to come.
                              "The Iraqi army will ultimately be comprised of 27 battalions of infantry – including nine special Iraqi Intervention Force battalions – and three transportation battalions. The army will be organized into nine brigades and three divisions.

                              The bulk of the force is slated to be in place by early 2005."
                              "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

                              Comment


                              • So they are at 8, but they plan to come out with 15 more in just a few months?

                                Given all their previous estimates and timelines of achievement, don't mind if I am a bit dubious.

                                Also, 3 divisions? So we are thinking the new iraqi army will be only 70-80 thousand men? That's pretty small for the neighborhood.
                                If you don't like reality, change it! me
                                "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                                "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                                "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

                                Comment

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