How do you gamble to win?

[Alexander's Horse]

You can win - but all comes down to luck and timing. Skill can play a role as well but if the cards don't fall your way, all the skill in the world won't help you - with the possible exception of poker.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

[Alexander's Horse]

To see what I mean you should watch those tournament poker games where you can see the players hands - the number of times I've seen what I thought would be unbeatable hands, and would be tempted to bet big on, beaten.....its scary.

[Ming]

The casinos love when people win... and more so when they win big. They promote these people so other suckers can think they will be that lucky

Again, some people will win, and others will lose. And the casinos will always get their percentage...

In most cases, it's a matter of luck. Money management, and the ability to walk away at the right time are your best weapons in Casinos...

[Alexander's Horse]

I'd love to go Las Vegas at some time - it's just one of those "must do once" things.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
the number of times I've seen what I thought would be unbeatable hands, and would be tempted to bet big on, beaten.....its scary.

the number of times I've HAD what I thought would be unbeatable hands, and WAS tempted to bet big on, beaten.....its scary.

[Alexander's Horse]

It's also interesting how often someone wins with a poor hand.

[Ming]

Anybody that saw the World Series of Poker watched some of the most skilled poker players in the world get their asses kicked, while doing EVERYTHING right

Luck is still a big factor... While the greats did some amazing things (some of the bluffs were outstanding), many of them died on a bad break on the river card

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Ah, but that doesn't mean you can't win. The more money you have the more you can win. If everyone used this system and we all shared our resources we would break the casino. Would they have better odds? yes. Would they win? No.

Why do you only read what you want?

There are at least 3 posts by me where I explain with many examples how the casino would make money =win...

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by Ming
Anybody that saw the World Series of Poker watched some of the most skilled poker players in the world get their asses kicked, while doing EVERYTHING right

Luck is still a big factor... While the greats did some amazing things (some of the bluffs were outstanding), many of them died on a bad break on the river card

The World Series was what I was referring to - I recall in one of the finals people were winning the pots with a single face card or very low pairs like 2's or 3's for most of the evening, it was pathetic, and then in one hand somebody got like a King's high full house and bet all his chips on it only to find another player had a straight flush

Another time somebody had a straight flush and another player had a straight flush only one card or suit higher

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Ok, check this out. Simplify the game to flipping a coin. Now I'm going to play until I lose $1 or lose $2. There is a 50% chance that I will win the first game. Then the game is over. If I lose the first game and lose the second game the game is over. I lose. There is a 25% chance that I will lose that way. The remainder is a 25% chance.

Ok, so what chance do I have to win if I lose the first game and win the second game? According to everyone here my chances of victory is 2/3. So that means that my chances of winning after losing the first game and winning the second game is about 17%, but it seems much more than that to me. I don't see why my chance to win after 2 games shouldn't be over fifty percent since the situation seems exactly the same as the initial situation.

Ok im assuming you mean WIN 1$ here or lose 2$.

Your analysis is wrong.
You have 2/3 chance of winning 1$ before you lose 2$.
Here is one way to see it.
You have 50% chance to win, 25% to lose as you said, and 25% chance to get back where you started.
But notice that you win twice as many times as you lose, so those 25% chance will be distributed the same way.
There is a way to express as an infinite sum also.
theoritically the game could go on forever, if you get a lose , win, lose win , lose win streak...

so the total odds are 2/3 of winning.
Ask anybody who has done any probability (this is very basic stuff), if you still dont believe even though everyone will agree with me, do the ultimate test.
Do a computer program to do a few thousand test or go throw a coin 100-200 time (should be enough in this case.).

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by Kidicious
I'm getting 73% instead of 67%. I'll explain later.

Let ME explain why this cant be right

you have 25% of starting your streak with L L (meaning losing twice in a row)

you have 25% *25% = 6.25 % chance of starting with this sequence : L W L L (losing winning then lose lose)
already you have 31.25 chance of losing.
in fact if you do the whole infinite sum you will have 33.333 % =1/3 chance of losing...

Almost all of your probability thinking is flawed, and basing money on it, although not any worse than almost all other people betting, is a questionnable idea...

As i said do a computer or life simulation if you dont believe me...

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by Whaleboy
Maths is irrelevant, lets look at the evidence. Casinos: Multi-billion dollar industry. Gamblers: Among the highest divorce rate in the Western world. Get my point?

but its important to go beyond that.
In the 60s some people did break the casinos at blackjack by counting cards.
Its not good enough to say oh the casinos are rich so theres no way to win.

A guy in Montreal made himself very famous about 10 years ago by using a computer to find a flaw in one of the slot machines and getting the jackpot a few times.

that was before computer were outlawed in most casinos.

so its not true that math is irrelevant.

all of the above people used math to BEAT that casinos at their own game.

[Alexander's Horse]

ah yes - the mythical big winners

[The Emperor Fabulous]

Mythical? My uncle (huge gamblerholic or whatever it is) won somewhere over a million a few years back. Of course, mostly that helped him just get out of debt from all the gambling the previous 3 decades, but he still hit a million.