Yankees: Objects in Mirror are Closer then they Appear

[Lawrence of Arabia]

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/sports/baseball/29score.html

imran, do you also believe in DIPS?

[ixnay]

edit: I'm a genius

GO PADRES

[asleepathewheel]

Originally posted by ixnay
GO PADRES

[Imran Siddiqui]

imran, do you also believe in DIPS?

For the most part, yes. I don't think the pitcher has NO effect (as the original version of DIPS stated) on whether a ball hit in play has any effect, but I think any effect is very, very, very slim. Mostly it is a function of defense and the batter.

EDIT: I see that the revised DIPS (after Tippett's observations) has been covered in the article .

[Lawrence of Arabia]

so in other words, a player who strikes out less is a better player, since everytime he puts the ball in play, he has a bigger chance of making something happen - therefore, a fly out is not the same as a strikeout, and and all outs arnt the same.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Um... no. That's very confused logic.

DIPS only describes PITCHER'S effects on batted balls in play. It has nothing to do with the batter's effect on hit balls. A batter who strikes out more but hits more HRs and has more walks is a MUCH better player than a player who doesn't strike out but has no power and doens't walk.

Secondly, one type of out being 'better' than another type of out out still doesn't make it "productive", because an out is wasted, even if a player is moved over or comes in to score. It would still have a negative value, but perhaps less negative than another type. Doesn't change the fact that no out is actually "productive".

[Lawrence of Arabia]

A batter who strikes out more but hits more HRs and has more walks is a MUCH better player than a player who doesn't strike out but has no power and doens't walk.

what about a player who strikes out more but hits more HRs. is he better than a player who strikes out less but walks more?

[Imran Siddiqui]

what about a player who strikes out more but hits more HRs. is he better than a player who strikes out less but walks more?

It depends on the numbers. Who has the higher OPS (OBP and SLG)? If they are comparable, then who has the higher OBP?

You can't ask who is 'better' without accounting for some of those numbers.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

ok, the HR has lower OPS and the walker has higher OPS, but the HR hitter is a better fielder.

[Imran Siddiqui]

By how much on each? And does the walker have higher OBP and the slugger higher SLG, and by how much? Based on your vaguaries I'm tempted to say the 'walker', but I don't the relative weights and I don't know how much worse on D the 'walker' is.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

too bad.

[The Emperor Fabulous]

I'm not looking forward to the upcoming stretch. The Sox are facing the Angles, Rangers, and Athletics, three incredibly strong teams that can go the distance with the Sox, and are all competing for the AL West Title. The Yankees, meanwhile, are at home against the barely .500 Indians, the floudering O's, and the D-Rays, who have only gotten 3 wins against the Evil Empire in 11 games this season. If the Sox don't remain with their winning ways, taking at least 2 out of 3 from each team, they may not end up in the Playoffs at all.

But I'm still keeping the faith!

[Lawrence of Arabia]

the last time we played these guys, we went 2/3 from angels and A's and we swept the ranger i think. we just need to play that, and let the yankees flounder again against the indians. if the yanks lose 2 outta 3 against indians (likely) lose 2 outta 3 against Os (50/50 chance depending on whose pitching and whether they show up or not) and take 2 outta 3 against the d rays (very likely) they will have a 4 - 5 record. a sox 5 -4, or 6 - 3 will still catch up one or two games. even if yanks go 5 -4, and we go 5 -4 , we will have 'caught up' because we still play the rays, toronto, and Os down the stretch (not to mention 6 against yanks)

so we are in the drivers seat for both the division and the wildcard.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

hey imran, are there any sim leagues out there? ill challenege you. you do your sabermetrics thing, ill do my 'go with the gut' thing and we'll see who wins.

[Imran Siddiqui]

The only sim league which matters is real life baseball. Any sim is going to have its own prejudices involved. The only one without built in prejudice (for or against sabermetrics) is the majors itself.

And I realize it is hard to take that all the 'gut' stuff has been statistically proven to be inferior. That's why it took so long for James' work and sabermetrics to be accepted (at least a minimal level) in the majors. It seems to be working for the A's (Billy Beane), Red Sox (Theo Epstein), and especially the Dodgers (Paul DePodesta). Though it isn't working for the Blue Jays (J.P. Riccardi)... at least not yet. Though at least it's spreading and will continue to do so. Doesn't take brain surgeons to realize that relying on the facts to make decisions is better than your gut... but baseball has always been a closed minded sport in those sort of things.