Vanunu Goes Free

[Az]

So in terms of Nukes in the ME, should Iran drop out of the NPT and openly declare an intention o develop nukes? After all, they have an openyl nuclear neighbor, unlike Irsae, and face hostility from two other nuclear states (Israel and the US)-and they lack a conventional superiority againt them so heck, Iran has as many valid reasons for NUkes as Israel has. And heck, they already face US sanctions, sho big whoop.

In terms of geopoliticial worthiness, I think this would be a worthy canditate for a strategy.

I'd pursue nukes too, if I am some dictator, or such.

[GePap]

Israel is not a dictatorship-it persued nukes. UK and the US and France, all ditto.

Iran, dictator or not, has a hundred reasons to get nukes. So does Egypt, Syria, Iraq, heck, everyone with real interests internationally that can afford nukes has a reason to get them if anyone else has them.

[Eli]

Originally posted by GePap
Iran, dictator or not, has a hundred reasons to get nukes. So does Egypt, Syria, Iraq, heck, everyone with real interests internationally that can afford nukes has a reason to get them if anyone else has them.

Yes, they have the full right to do so.

And we have the full right to bomb them.

[GePap]

NO, you don't. You see, Israel can have nukes becuase it never signed the NPT deal. Other states simply can leave the NPT deal and be free to make them if they aquiace to the consequences from members of the NPT. (so in that respect, as PLATO said, Israel get a free ride)

By your thinking, Syran and Egypt, in fact, any of your neighbors has every right to bomb diamona. So I assume you would understand it if a few Syrian SCUDS went off in the Israeli desert-I mean, they have every right.

[Eli]

By your thinking, Syran and Egypt, in fact, any of your neighbors has every right to bomb diamona. So I assume you would understand it if a few Syrian SCUDS went off in the Israeli desert-I mean, they have every right.

More or less. Bombing Dimona now is pretty useless since it will cause total war and Israel will still have it's nukes. But if it were 1956 now and I was Egypt, I would've done everything within my power to destroy the reactor. For them, it is an existential threat.

[GePap]

So you are claiming one state has the right to start a full out war to destroy an enemy if that enemy is building up?

So by your logic, if Tommorrow the Syrians begun emptying their cities to save as many people as possible, then launched a full WMD attack on as Many Israeli cities as possible then no one could fault Syria for doing it (they had every right), only perhaps question their tactics in terms of their ability to actually win?

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Azazel
I am talking about a real law, you know, one that is enforced.

International law isn't real law? It is for every country that doesn't have a member of the UN Security Council to block any resolution enforcing the law. The fact that Israel is a special case, and international laws don't apply to it, just shows how protected it is by US bias.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Drogue

International law isn't real law?

Only to the extent states care to enforce it.

[Az]

Israel is not a dictatorship-it persued nukes. UK and the US and France, all ditto.

Iran, dictator or not, has a hundred reasons to get nukes. So does Egypt, Syria, Iraq, heck, everyone with real interests internationally that can afford nukes has a reason to get them if anyone else has them.

different situation. Israel pursued nukes in the midst of the cold war, after being threatened with them by the SU, AND not recieving a nuclear umbrella from the US.

[DinoDoc]

So THAT"S why the French gave you nukes!

[GePap]

Originally posted by Azazel
different situation. Israel pursued nukes in the midst of the cold war, after being threatened with them by the SU, AND not recieving a nuclear umbrella from the US.

So?

why would Iran, dictatorship or not, NOT need nukes?

Are you saying If Israel make a final peacedeal with Syria, it will dismantle its nukes?

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
So THAT"S why the French gave you nukes!

Hey you! Stop badmouthing us! We never gave nukes to anybody!

We sold them

[PLATO]

Iran is certainly free to withdraw from the NPT and develop nukes. That much is clear in the treaty. However, the consequences of making both the US and Israel feel threatened would most likely not be in their best interests. I would imagine that the open development of nukes by Iran would draw some kind of ultimatum from the US regardless of who the Prez is. We have way to much interest in that area to let an openly hostile state develop nukes. Yes I am talking blood for oil. Our economic life could depend on containing Iran and the cost of that could be much greater in the long run than simply destroying their nuclear capability. Right choice?...Who knows-But I'll bet that would be the conventional wisdom.

[Sirotnikov]

the real problem is that iran and at that time iraq were developping nukes of their own. and even the israeli governement saw the hypocrisy in protesting the fact that an islamic country was devlopping nukes, while they were building their own.

wrong.
Iraq under Saddam was warmongering and expansionist (Kuwait, Iran, anyone?) and used WMDs (against it's own, and iirc against Iran).

Iran is expansionist. It's first objective is the export of the Islamic (shiite) Revolution. Once it has nukes, it will be safe from any possible attack to stop its religious expansionism.

Iran currently funds Hezbullah, the Revolution Guards, palestinian terrorism.

[Sirotnikov]

Let me explain to you peaceniks, why the current status quo when Israel supposedly has nukes and Arab states don't, is the best thing for peace in the ME.


What is the purpose of nukes? To deter a war.

Prior to 1973, The Arabs kept on attacking Israel. In 1973, Israel reportedly threatened to use nukes, and the USA and USSR urged Arab states to stop their advancement.

Since 1973, the ARab states have been reluctant to use military power against Israel, and instead have war by-proxy using Palestinian or Lebanese terrorist organizations.

So, Israel having nukes, is a deterrent to war in the ME. (With exceptions for Israeli started wars, like the 82 Lebanon campaign. But that can be solved using US pressure, since Israel is much dependant on the US right now that it ever was).

What if Iran has nukes?

Syria no longer fears to openly attack Israel, because Israel now can not use it's nukes or its full military power, because once Syria begins losing, Iran will threaten to use nukes.