Start of Civil War? Attacks Across Iraq!

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse
Agathon produced a nice little chronology of you not winning

Btw, Agagthon you left off Beirut and Somalia. More disasters.

Beirut was Reagan's gutlessness, Somalia was a waste of time, but we stacked asses in Mogadishu, and the Marines in UNITAF shut down the warlord bull**** entirely. We just didn't see a national interest worth keeping 20,000 Marines in a useless ****hole to help the UN do it's job for once.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse


Don't change the subject.

And I'll have you know that tea drinking is a secret weapon - calms you down, makes you cool.

Whereas coffee hypes you up.

Would have been nice if they'd brought some of that tea 18km up the road to the chaps from the Red Devils and the Polish Airborne Brigade.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by GePap
We captured Saddam 3 months ago-nothing has happened yet. We can wait for July to have the iraqi police come and get him. Political stability trumps all other concerns if the amdin. is hell bent on the June 30 deadline.

Saddam was known to be hiding in a hole, and had no personal following to speak of - everyone was looking for their own agendas, not his.

al Sadr's not quite down to that level of marginalization.

[GePap]

Yesd-meaning that if we go in to get him or keep makign threats and don't let the Shiites clean tehir own house, it becomes us 9the US) versus the Shiite leadership instead of us vs Sadr. And that means less political stability.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Seems to me that was the intent of the first 6 month "no touch Sadr let the Shiite work it out themselves policy".

[GePap]

You mean the last 12 months.

Our not having enough forces to secure the country let him build up a following. After he had that, it simply has become a political liability for the US to arrest him on behlf of a government with no legitimacy, whcih sadly is what we have, becuase then he becomes a "political prisoner", and we would just be holding him until a real Iraqi trial could be set up.

Killing him is even far more stupid.

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


Beirut was Reagan's gutlessness, Somalia was a waste of time, but we stacked asses in Mogadishu, and the Marines in UNITAF shut down the warlord bull**** entirely. We just didn't see a national interest worth keeping 20,000 Marines in a useless ****hole to help the UN do it's job for once.

As opposed to keeping 130,000 in another useless ****hole.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse


As opposed to keeping 130,000 in another useless ****hole.

This is a useful ****hole - it's got oil.

[Alexander's Horse]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


You mean like when Julian Bond forced a river crossing (at over 50% casualties) to take the bridge over Nijmegen so Brit tankers could cross and then find a nice place to brew their afternoon tea while the Red Devils and Polish Airborne Brigade were being overrun just 18 km up the road?

The fact an unnoticed German Panzer Division was camped around the last bridge refitting might have had something to do with it too

[Tripledoc]

According to the various news agencies the political situation is generally regarded as more important than the situation on the ground. If anyone have any other indication as to what is happening, let it be known. My impression:

The intial attacks were described by Us sources as well-coordinated and professional.

Presumably the insurgents were willing to accept a 10-1 killing ratio - this according to US command. However when the 30-80 dead mercenaries are added to the 88 official dead US soldiers in April so far, and compared with 600-1000 plus dead insurgents that would give a very rough 5-1 kill ratio estimate. The real ratio might be nearer to 3-1 since many of the insurgents may be civilians - this according to Arab news.

How many combat troops is available to the coalition? Well a wild guess is 40.000 US plus 5.000 'private contractors'. The rest is logistics, guard duty, security, staff, and other support roles. UK and others will not see any combat. The number of insurgents is probably limitless.

Supply situation. The road from Baghdad to Falluja is presumably cut off. On the strategic level emergency supplies of humvees originally destined for Israel have been redirected to Iraq, indicationg some degree of ad hoc flexibility. Halliburton have suspended their convoys supplying US troops. Wounded marines have complained of lack of ammunition. Us command have described the roads as 'yellow', as opposed to 'green', meaning clear, and 'red' meaning closed.

It is unclear how the situation is further South. But the coalition troops are keeping to their bases.

Semi-official. British commanders have critizised the Americans for being ham-fisted in their approach. Saying that laying down artillery barrages in civilian areas will not do any good.

Geneva convention has been breached in several instances, and no entity have as yet pronounced their opinion on the legal status of the levée en masse of the Iraqi, or the role of the private contractors.

Near Falluja 2.500 marines are poised in a stand-off. Closing in on Najaf is 25.000 US troops.

It should be noted that Islamic agencies have claimed higher losses regarding the US, but have not denied own losses.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Alexander's Horse


The fact an unnoticed German Panzer Division was camped around the last bridge refitting might have had something to do with it too

Actually, the rather shattered and tank light remnants of a division which was pulled into ol' Monty's sector to refit. Certainly nothing that would handle competent allied armor in the strength present within XXX Corps.

[Alexander's Horse]

I don't disagree with you on that at all. It was noted at the time that XXX corps lacked fighting spirit and suffered only 17 casualties in their "drive" to the bridges, stopping whenever they came under fire. Hmmmm.......!!!!!

Horrocks was criticised about it.

But the crucial thing was the paras ran out of tea and of course immediately surrendered because there was nothing to fight for anymore.

Those shatttered remnants you talk about were stronger than that. They had tanks and the paras had little effective anti tank resources.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat


This is a useful ****hole - it's got oil.

I never thought I'd see the day that I would include MTG in my sig line.

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by GePap
Two things happened with Sadr- his actions garnered him the sort of attention from ther high leadership he porbalby always craved (like getting to meet with the sons of all the Grand Ayatollahs and neogtiators coming all the way from Iran), and he also saw the highr ps would not back him, so that long run he would not succeed.

How can the US serve the warrant? Sadr will probably get to stay in Najaf unless the Clerics force him out, and the US would be monumentally stupid to enter Najaf in force trying to get him.

My guess is that some sort of surrender to the Clerics by Sadr will happen. But not a turnover into US hands, or the police.

And yet they just executed an Iranian hostage. That's a heck of a way to impress a putative ally! Does he belong to some obscure Shiite sect that considers Shiites to be their natural enemies?

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by GePap
Two things happened with Sadr- his actions garnered him the sort of attention from ther high leadership he porbalby always craved (like getting to meet with the sons of all the Grand Ayatollahs and neogtiators coming all the way from Iran), and he also saw the highr ps would not back him, so that long run he would not succeed.

Spot on.

I don't have the exact quote but he went public trying to ally himself with Sistani. It basically went, "look at me, I'm the man! Please please notice me and accept me Sistani!"

So he did get the attention he wanted but at the same time the clerics aren't going to back him.

Honestly he nothing more than a street thug so it's a shame to see so many people following him as a potential leader. He is pretty much the Al Capone wannabe of Iraq.