The Economist: Let the Dollar Fall

[Tingkai]

Originally posted by el freako
Actually the rate for China is around 1.8

Which is still much higher than the Euros.

China has a birth rate of 16 per 1,000;
Spain has a measly 9/1,000

Besides, with Chinese immigrants you'll get lots of hard-working entrepreneurs.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Tingkai


Are you saying that the weaker US dollar makes it more expensive for other countries to import American goods? If you are saying this then you are wrong.

No, importing goods costs jobs, as well as dollars. That's my comment.

[Kidlicious]

Re: Re: The Economist: Let the Dollar Fall

Originally posted by Tingkai
There's a major flaw in the Economist's logic. If there is a balanced budget then there is less foreign debt for the US. This would reduce the current account deficit and remove the weakness of the dollar.

The dollar is weak because of Bushie's reckless overspending. If return to good fiscal management would strengthen the dollar.

Monetary policy is the biggest factor determining the strength of the dollar. The deficit could be much larger and the Fed could raise interest rates and cause the dollar to strengthen. I think the Economist worries about the ability of the US govt to continue borrowing in the future when they really need it. I don't agree with them though.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Tingkai


China and Japan are not buying US dollars to "devalue their own currencies". The renminbi is officially peg at a set rate and the Yen is unofficially pegged within a tight margin.

The two countries have resisted American calls to allow their currencies to rise in value against the greenback.

Also, the US dollar is being devalued, hence its decline against most major currencies.

If the dollar is being devalued, and the remnimbi is pegged to it then the remnimbi is being devalued also.

[el freako]

Originally posted by Tingkai

Which is still much higher than the Euros.

Surely you mean higher than some european countries.
France and Ireland have a higher TPFR than China.

Originally posted by Tingkai
China has a birth rate of 16 per 1,000;
Spain has a measly 9/1,000

The birthrate is not the sole determinant of population growth - you also need to look at the deathrate.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Kidicious


No, importing goods costs jobs, as well as dollars. That's my comment.

And that attitude is why we should stop trading with them. They can easily buy from us without taking their own jobs because they have MASSIVE trade surplusses with us, and it will not hurt local business or take money out of their economy. And with that kind of trade both sides gain, however what we have now is not it.

[el freako]

China does run a large trade surplus with the US, but it's overall surplus is much lower.
So surely that means that the US get's higher exports to some of the intermediate countries?

Looking at trade as a zero-sum game is daft (and was disproved around two centuries ago)

[CharlesBHoff]

Originally posted by Giancarlo


I am just twisting your words to my advantage.

CharlesBHoff: Pat Buchanan is perhaps the most unreliable person you could turn to. That is like asking Pat Robertson or even Fred Phelps about gay rights. He is a raving lunatic.

In Spain, we have a steady population growth, not declining as was proved. So your numbers are off. The problem with Italy is Italian women wait till too late to have children.

England for one year have 3.0 babies per child bearing non-muslim but that was a flute. Long term the outlook is different for England and Spain. Japon have than worst rate than any European nation. China is than special case as Mao went against the advice of his long term advior and friend to not control China birthrate in fact Mao encought woman to have more babies.

Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Whoha


And that attitude is why we should stop trading with them. They can easily buy from us without taking their own jobs because they have MASSIVE trade surplusses with us, and it will not hurt local business or take money out of their economy. And with that kind of trade both sides gain, however what we have now is not it.

Just because the have a trade surplus with us doesn't mean that they don't suffer from unemployment. In fact they do suffer from unemployment. It's probably higher than in the US.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by el freako
Looking at trade as a zero-sum game is daft (and was disproved around two centuries ago)

Only under ideal conditions which almost never exist. Sometimes it's win-win and sometimes it's zero-sum. There is no law.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by CharlesBHoff
Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

More babies may stimulate some consumer spending too.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by el freako
China does run a large trade surplus with the US, but it's overall surplus is much lower.
So surely that means that the US get's higher exports to some of the intermediate countries?

Looking at trade as a zero-sum game is daft (and was disproved around two centuries ago)

it IS a zero sum gain when its only 1 way trade. The whole basis of Ricardo's free trade theory was comparative advantage, not absolute advantage.

[JohnT]

Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

Hell, I've got one kid, the wife doesn't work and nobody bothers to pays us. How hard is it to learn Japanese anyway?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Whoha


it IS a zero sum gain when its only 1 way trade. The whole basis of Ricardo's free trade theory was comparative advantage, not absolute advantage.

Theoretically 1 way trade could be win-win, but in reality, and from a purely economic stand point, never is.

[Drake Tungsten]

Japon is now offering 5000 dollars cut off of net taxable
income for each child in a family and it than woman have 5 babies she doesnot have to work she can stay home than raise then while her hushand have to pay no income tax at all for 10 or 15 years I believe. This show the Jap Government is worry about their decline pop.

I wonder if I would qualify for this. The Japanese government wants babies, but I'm not sure if they want hakujin ones...