Iranian Conservatives Disquallify Reformist Candidates & Reformists Boycott Gov't

[BeBMan]

Originally posted by monkspider
I always thought that the fundies weren't too popular with the masses, so this could be their desperate, last-gasp attempt to hold back the tide.

Hm, would be cool, but from the protests last year I got the impression that it´s still pretty split - pro-democracy on the one side, pro-islamic-fundies on the other.

Would be also interesting to know if there are huge differences between rural and urban people in this aspect.

[Ramo]

Hm, would be cool, but from the protests last year I got the impression that it´s still pretty split - pro-democracy on the one side, pro-islamic-fundies on the other.

The public is overwhelmingly supportive of a more democratic government. That's why their representative legislature is consistently controlled by the Reformists by large majorities - although frustration at undemocratic institutions in preventing reform among the public as well as frustration at the Reformists in not backing the students have recently reduced their power in parliament.

AFAIK the army is still conservative.

The main problem are the Revolutionary Guards. It's conceivable that a large portion of the army might dissolve. Probably not a majority, but that might be enough. After all, popular revolutions have succeeded without the army completely dissolving. It'll probably be bloody, but that doesn't mean it'll fail.

[Seeker]

Your post seems to imply that the 'Persian' interior ministry (read: military police)was pro-reform. That seems unlikely, is it true?

[Ramo]

The BBC is saying it. I'm pretty sure they wouldn't write something blatantly wrong in a major article.

And actually, the military courts were involved in prosecuting policemen who were attacking students.

[Shi Huangdi]

Hmmm, that could be interesting, the military police could be used to arrest the government.

"The main problem are the Revolutionary Guards. It's conceivable that a large portion of the army might dissolve. Probably not a majority, but that might be enough. After all, popular revolutions have succeeded without the army completely dissolving. It'll probably be bloody, but that doesn't mean it'll fail."

It'd be really, really, tough. I can fully see a middle eastern Tianamen Square repeating itself here.

[yaroslav]

I wish this could be the beginning of a revolution, and I know how the population (specially the young people, whose number is very high in Iran) feels about the fundies, but I doubt it

[Ramo]

Update:

Ayatollah Khamenei said that if there were a large number of questionable disqualifications, he would use his constitutional powers to try to redress the situation.

"At this stage we have legal channels and everyone should act based on law," he said in comments carried by state radio.

"If it gets to the point that it becomes sensitive and requires a decision... there is no doubt that I will step in and act in accordance with my judgment and duty, as has been the case in the past."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3389285.stm

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by OzzyKP
Revolution!

Have I mentioned recently how much I like you.

[Ramo]

It's interesting that Sistani resumed his demand for democratic elections in Iraq yesterday (which he pretty much called off a month ago after he failed to pressure us or the IGC into doing so). Perhaps he was inspired by the actions of Iranian reformists?

I can almost like the guy.

[GePap]

This is a huge test for Khatami..if he fails in overturning this, faith in him as the leader of the reformists will wane greatly. The question is how unpopular Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants to be: he does have the power to overturn the decision, but of course, he put the guys in the council in power, and he got to the top through political plays and not clerical seniority.

The people appear apathetic right now.

[Ramo]

Looks like Khatami has taken the plunge:

Vice-President Mohammad Sattarifar has warned that the government may resign if there is no resolution, reports say.

The BBC's Jim Muir says this did not amount to a specific threat, but was a clear sign of possible consequences.

Hardliners, however, are urging the unelected body which vets candidates to uphold its ban on more than 2,000 supporters of reform from standing.

The conservative Council of Guardians is now considering appeals against its own vetoes on the would-be candidates.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3391969.stm