Countries most likely to unite/split in our lifetime

[MrFun]

Re: Countries most likely to unite/split in our lifetime

Originally posted by monkspider

United States

Now THERE'S a fantastical idea if I ever saw one.

[Chilean President™]

Perhaps the Easter Island would like to become independent in the next decades... we'll have to squash the rebels

[Buck Birdseed]

By far the most plausible suggestion so far for "next union/split" is northern and southern Cyprus- there seems to be at least even odds on a union being achieved by the time they enter the EU in May.

[Sava]

Re: Re: Countries most likely to unite/split in our lifetime

Originally posted by MrFun


Now THERE'S a fantastical idea if I ever saw one.

All Empires crumble...

however, I don't see it happening any time soon... most likely, we'll fall into another depression. This age of corporate dominance and excessive wealth will soon give way to more egaltarian economic policies. Not since the 1920's has wealth been so concentrated at the top. And since laisze faire policies never work, there will be some kind of reckoning. Remember what happened after the 20's? I just hope it isn't as bad.

There are checks in place to prevent that kind of thing, but look for the free-marketeers to deregulate that stuff. I suspect the FDIC will become yet another underfunded and unenforcing government protection.

[OPD]

Originally posted by CerberusIV
N Ireland joining the Republic - possible but it will take a long time for old fears and hatreds to die down. The present peace deal will probably stick but why should the Republic saddle themselves with the North and all those awkward "loyalists" (just what are they loyal to anyway?).

Yeah there's no chance of Ireland uniting in our lifetime, it's possible but it'll take a long time for the culture of hate to die out. Those loyal to the crown aren't going to disapear and aren't going to submit to what they're been dying to prevent for so long.
The only way Ireland will unite will be as a part of a united europe, especially with the Republic booming due to the single currency as it is.
Which is actually a pretty good solution to the troubles, the republicans getting a united Ireland not ruled by the crown and the loyalists not loosing out either.

[Sava]

Those loyal to the crown

sigh... people still hanging on to the absurd idea of monarchy and divine right?

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by OPD


Yeah there's no chance of Ireland uniting in our lifetime, it's possible but it'll take a long time for the culture of hate to die out. Those loyal to the crown aren't going to disapear and aren't going to submit to what they're been dying to prevent for so long.
The only way Ireland will unite will be as a part of a united europe, especially with the Republic booming due to the single currency as it is.
Which is actually a pretty good solution to the troubles, the republicans getting a united Ireland not ruled by the crown and the loyalists not loosing out either.

Isnt the argument for Ireland uniting soon based on demographics - IE current situtation Protestants want a strong parliament at Stormont, with no authority from Dublin, while Catholics want some authority from Dublim to offset Protestant majority in Stormont. Once the Catholics have a majority in Stormont, what do the Protestants do, press for centralized rule from London? And will London feel obligated to bail out the minority in NI against the majority (versus current situation) Anyone have anything on demographic trends in Northern Ireland?

[Gangerolf]

Split:
Somalia (it's pretty much split already)
Chechnya from Russia but not anytime soon

Unite:
N and S Cyprus
Belarus and Russia

[OPD]

Loyal to the crown is just an expression of what it means to be loyalist, loyal to British rule would probably be a better way of putting it. They don't really believe in divine right etc... A even better way of putting it would be "those that don't want the catholics to get what they want..."

Depite demographics NI is not going to be a part of the Republic anytime soon. Even if there was to be a catholic majority in NI rule they'd know better than to try for any sort of unification as it would only mean a return to the troubles. The millitant loyalists aren't going to disapear for a long time. Perhaps far in the future when alot of people are dead and buried and differences have faded.. but not in our lifetime, it's just not going to happen. Both being part of a united Europe is far more likely to happen before that.

[OliverFA]

You have forgot about a country who is in a real danger of spliting. In fact one of its two main partys is de-facto splited in several smaller ones. Depending on the next March's elections results, Spain could blow up.

[Arrian]

The one european country where a split has seemed possible in the past but no-one has mentioned is Italy. Does the Lombard League have any influence these days? Is the north still interested in cutting the south adrift?

Some personal experience, from ~7 years ago: I stayed briefly with a Northern Italian (N. of Milan) family and listened to them ***** about the South, and it is my impression that it's all bark and no bite. They complain about the South kinda like we Yankees piss and moan about Texas (or whichever former reb state is acting up) . Limited experience, 7 yrs old. So obviously not very authoritative. Take from it what you will.

-Arrian

[OliverFA]

Originally posted by CerberusIV
The one european country where a split has seemed possible in the past but no-one has mentioned is Italy. Does the Lombard League have any influence these days? Is the north still interested in cutting the south adrift?

I agree. In fact independentist nationalisms are raging among Europe.

[Whoha]

Canada as previously mentioned will probably split.
Alberta will probably go for independence, don't know whether the other provinces will try to join the US.

Taiwan could either rejoin the mainland or keep independence, it will most likely rejoin the mainland once the communists fall.

California will probably try to join mexico at some point, the other border states may as well. this will be particularly violent.

an NK,SK reunion will happen either with US troops pulling out of SK and an NK takeover,or the fall of the communists in NK(wait that covers all possibilities...).

the EU will split unless *SOME* countries get their act together.

Zimbabwae will collapse,and in an aside, Zambia got a lot of the farmers, and now they don't have food shortages. Don't know if any country is going to want to touch the mess Zimbabwae is in, but someone might grab it(British?).

Eventually a Kurdistan will be formed, and unless the "resistance" stops in sunni Iraq there will be a prosperous south, a prosperous north, and a dirt poor center.

[Frozzy]

Originally posted by rendelnep


With that sort of talk add NZ to list ( bloody north islanders think they own the whole country, Hope they remember where most their electricty comes from....)

Huntly?

[Sandman]

I don't think that there will be many break-ups in developed Western countries, if any. There have been none in the last 50 years, after all.

Scotland is a maybe, but it probably won't split. The Nats got a severe drubbing at the last Scottish election, and they seem to have run out of ideas and momentum. The Greens and Reds have taken a lot of their thunder as well.

I think that Sudan will stay together, if the peace deal works out.