I think the recession's over

[chequita guevara]

I've been looking on Monster today, as I expect my contract to end in the new year, and there are jobs up the butt in my field. I haven't seen so many web jobs available since the late '90s.

IT'S OVER! IT'S OVER! IT'S OVER! YAAAAYYYYYY!!!!!


:

[Spec]

You better look at finacial facts instead of job listings before you start dancing.

Spec.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well Economists are predicting robust growth in 2004... at least that is what the NY Times says.

[chequita guevara]

Job listsings is what impacts real people.

[Caligastia]

Say thank you to Dubya for his tax cuts now Che.

[rah]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Job listsings is what impacts real people.

Yes, in my opinion, that's what's most important.

Almost all of my friends that were out of work are now back gainfully employed.

And when headhunters call, they are now asking if I know if anyone is available. It's been a few years since a headhunter asked me that. So things in IT must be getting better. Any my company has been hiring too.

All good signs if you're in IT.

RAH

[SlowwHand]

I think you're getting a little ahead of yourself.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by rah


Yes, in my opinion, that's what's most important.

Almost all of my friends that were out of work are now back gainfully employed.

And when headhunters call, they are now asking if I know if anyone is available. It's been a few years since a headhunter asked me that. So things in IT must be getting better. Any my company has been hiring too.

All good signs if you're in IT.

I wanna get another job.

[el freako]

I must admit that the tax cuts/increased spending certainly seem to have done the trick (but with a deterioration of the government's structural balance of nearly $700bn a year that's hardly surprising).

What is strange is that US consumers have done nothing to correct their financial imbalances during this downturn (indeed if you just look at the relative levels of borrowing and debt the current situation looks more like a peak than the recovery from a recession).

So either there will be a 'producers recovery' with the gains going to exporters and the growth in consumer spending being very subdued (by which I mean slower than it was even during the last 3 years) or the stage is set for a truely horrible recession next time - pretty much like the shallow 1970 recession failed to purge imbalances that caused havoc when the 1974-75 recession happened.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Caligastia
Say thank you to Dubya for his tax cuts now Che.

I don;t think they had anything to do with it.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


I don;t think they had anything to do with it.

What do you attribute it to?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Caligastia
What do you attribute it to?

Certainly not giving money to the rich.

[rah]

Hmm, maybe not the ultra rich, but in our case, since we have our debt managed, (we only owe on our house) and our daughter's college fund was in good shape, we spent the tax savings on non-necessities so we helped clear somebodies inventory which now has to be replenished. If enough people did this, it could help explain why more jobs are being added. So while i'm sure it's not the single reason, it has to have helped the situation.

[GePap]

Originally posted by el freako
I must admit that the tax cuts/increased spending certainly seem to have done the trick (but with a deterioration of the government's structural balance of nearly $700bn a year that's hardly surprising).

What is strange is that US consumers have done nothing to correct their financial imbalances during this downturn (indeed if you just look at the relative levels of borrowing and debt the current situation looks more like a peak than the recovery from a recession).

So either there will be a 'producers recovery' with the gains going to exporters and the growth in consumer spending being very subdued (by which I mean slower than it was even during the last 3 years) or the stage is set for a truely horrible recession next time - pretty much like the shallow 1970 recession failed to purge imbalances that caused havoc when the 1974-75 recession happened.

This, is, sadly, exactly what I think will happen. Jobs have just barely started to appear, and i bet most of the jobs coming up are lower paying than the jobs they are replacing. The amdin, is till millions of jobs bellow were it begun, and I do doubt enough jobs will be created in a year to make this up (which will still make W the firt president since Hoover to rpeside over less Americans with jobs at the end of his term than at the beginning). I have seen no numbers in increasing wages, which means people are still spending the tax cuts (most of which have not even really arrived, but most of those cuts do go to the very top brackets) and money from re-financed mortages due to the continuing rock bottom rates. But were would the new money come from?

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by GePap
This, is, sadly, exactly what I think will happen. Jobs have just barely started to appear, and i bet most of the jobs coming up are lower paying than the jobs they are replacing.

One thing I have noticed is that a lot of the jobs seem to be paying about 75% or less than what I'm making now. Factor in that I'm living in an area with a very low CoA, and I could well be taking an economic hit.

Nonetheless, 1440+ jobs came up in my search.