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Dean has nomination locked?

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  • #1

    Dean has nomination locked?

    Sure looks that way.

    Gephardt HAS to win in Iowa to survive, and even if does he still has to build momentum somewhere else. Kerry looks likely to lose in NH and disappear. Clarks out of Iowa, in real bad shape in NH, and not really coming together. Edwards looks in very bad shape, a loss in SC would eliminate him. Joe maybe most likely to survive as not-Dean, but hes not catching fire, and doesnt appeal to the Clinton-McAullife establishment, unlikely to pull out nomination.

    Dean, OTOH, could eliminate 2 or 3 rivals with wins in Iowa and NH, and has most money, and strongest org, and has gotten key union endorsements.
    "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber
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  • #2
    No... while he definetly has a much better chance than I thought possible (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater'), Kerry and Libermann still have good chances to win out. I still think Kerry wins in the end. He's the establishment guy and will stay the course. I think (Bill) Clinton will endorse him and that will help greatly.

    Even if Kerry loses in both Iowa and NH, he won't disappear anytime soon.
    “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
    - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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    • #3
      NOt yet, but the other candidates are not doing much, given how much anti-Dean stuff goes to press daily..I mean, honestly, when every paper keeps pounding on how Dean can never get elected (same papers that said no way Gore gets more votes than Bush, with his left-wing populist message in 2000), why don't Kerry and Gephard get a move on, as well as Clarcke? Honestly, I don't see enough grassroots support for Lieberman for him to make it- as well as he might do on polls, the people who do get involved at the grass roots level simply are not backing him.
      If you don't like reality, change it! me
      "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
      "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
      "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
        No... while he definetly has a much better chance than I thought possible (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater'), Kerry and Libermann still have good chances to win out. I still think Kerry wins in the end. He's the establishment guy and will stay the course. I think (Bill) Clinton will endorse him and that will help greatly.

        Even if Kerry loses in both Iowa and NH, he won't disappear anytime soon.
        establishment guy should be rolling in money - Kerry may have to dig into wifes money to counter Dean. No major union endorsements. A poor second in next door to home state New Hampshire is very bad news. If he cant win there is there anywhere in the North he can stop Dean? that means stopping him in the south (why Kerry announced in South Carolina) But what does Kerry have in the South - i think his war record thing is wearing thin - he's up against 2 southerners (edwards and Clark) and one yankee whose ideology and religiosity have appeal in the south - Joe - and one guy with stronger economic and union appeal - Gephardt. And the best resource for a liberal in the South - the black vote - doesnt seem to be one Kerry has much appeal to (in contrast to Clinton) I cant see Kerry stopping Dean in the South - at most he might make it harder for someone else to consolidate the AntiDean vote.
        "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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        • #5
          I'm still not pleased with any of them, but Dean has it pretty much locked up.
          I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
          - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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          • #6
            "same papers that said no way Gore gets more votes than Bush, with his left-wing populist message in 2000), "

            well thats cause we all knew that Gore was still a sensible centrist when it came to most policies. heck, I voted for Gore in 2000, without any nervousness about his policies - and surely you dont consider me a raving leftie, do you
            "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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            • #7
              He doesn't have it locked. The dems could have a divided primary electorate if things don't shake out soon, with Dean running through much of his cash. This is the worst case scenario for the dems.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • #8
                Bush is certainly hoping so.
                I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
                For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator Rubio

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                • #9
                  "I mean, honestly, when every paper keeps pounding on how Dean can never get elected "

                  that may be true, but hardly matters I think - I mean who has stronger numbers in a 2 way with Bush? Only Clark I think, and not by much. Now theres a lot more that could be said about that from a strategic viewpoint, but to the average Dem primary voter i dont think theres an overwhelming case that anybody else is that much stronger against Bush than Dean. And quite frankly I think the left and other core activists are tired of sucking it up for the good of the party - theyve done it three times in a row now, and the last time, in 2000, the DLC candidate(Gore) blew it, and i think they no have patience for DLC lectures on electability. especially with Dean rolling in money.
                  "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
                    No... while he definetly has a much better chance than I thought possible (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater'),
                    Dont forget, after the GOP right got Goldwater out of there system, they accepted a moderate electable Republican twice in a row.
                    "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

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                    • #11
                      Bush will have so much more money that it does not matter, he wins the money game, period.

                      The thing is, legislators have little chance of getting elected because they have no executive experience, and they have to justify every vote they make during the campaing. Can anyone name the last senator to become president?
                      If you don't like reality, change it! me
                      "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                      "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                      "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by lord of the mark
                        Dont forget, after the GOP right got Goldwater out of there system, they accepted a moderate electable Republican twice in a row.
                        Ford was electable? and if you meant Reagan..well, what is your definition of moderate? cause Goldwater did transform the Republican party, even with his loss.
                        If you don't like reality, change it! me
                        "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                        "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                        "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Dean has done a very good job at his campaign. I've been very impressed. But that doesn't make him any less of a Goldwater type.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
                            (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater')
                            The McGovern campaign should have told you differently.
                            I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
                            For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator Rubio

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                            • #15
                              I am sorry, but if Bush wins it will not be due to any of his actions, but the points of view he represents- there is just so much to attack this white house on, specially it's "pledge to bring back integrity"..I mean, when the military press satrts to villify your "pro-military" administration..what positives are left?

                              If the country is in a Bush state of mind, then no democract could win..and if they aren't, any dem, save Sharpton, Kusinich and Mosely-Brown (probalby misspelled, but so what?)
                              If you don't like reality, change it! me
                              "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                              "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                              "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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