Originally posted by PLATO
Eventual war looks fairly likely now. This one will be a bad one.
Eventual war looks fairly likely now. This one will be a bad one.
Everything NK has done until now shows a paranoid fear of an American (or US sponsored) attack. And indeed, the US would probably have already attacked if Kim wasn't such a dangerous hedgehog. In some way, Kim follows the same strategy as Israel (the "mad dog" strategy I think) : be too dangerous and unpredictable to bother.
I think Kim's secondary aim, once his own power in Pyongyang is secured, is to get leverage in the eventual Korean reunification. He'll use the threat of a nuclear war as much as possible to keep as much power as possible during the reunification. He'll may even want to intimidate SK into surrendering to NK.
But his only weapon in diplomatic talks is the threat of using nukes, not the use of nukes by themselves. If he launches his nukes, he's toast. Even the Chinese will come and stop this guy. And what would he have achieved ? Losing his power. I.e, he'd simply have lost everything and won nothing.
You (Americans in general) shouldn't believe that dictators around the world are movie villains bent on destroying for the heck of it. They generally have a very precise and reasonable agenda. Only the idealists or fundamentalists are really unpredictable.
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