The future of civilizations in 30 years?

[st_swithin]

That's nice.

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Lord Merciless
I also can't imagine France having an Arab as a theater military commander, like John Abizaid.

Yes, well I'm sure that many an 18th century Frenchmen would've laughed at the idea of an Italian Emperor of France... but they got one!

[GePap]

ny general impression is that in the 19th c the US did a better job of absorbing new immigrants, which is one of the reasons the US had so many more than France, despite high French wage levels.

The US faced immense racial tensions with immigrants in the 1800's. Yes, those times were more backwards, but you can then compare the status of blacks in the US with those few in France. Josiphine Baker did better in Paris in 1920 than she would have in the south,no? As for immigranst going to Europe before: Why? Wage scales are not the only thing that mattered. Europe was a net exporter of human beings for almost 3 centuries, mainly to the new world. France was old, with a set social hiearchy, most bits of land already owned by someone, perhaps for centuries. If you are trying to create a whole new life, why go somewhere were life has been set for so long? Why not go somewhere empty enough to make something new? And since a great deal of the third world belonged to Europeans anyway, they controlled immigration into their shores at both ends, a luxury the US lacked. Why move subjects from one place to another? And would Germans allow a bunch of Russians into their land, given that a Russian empire with a great big army existed right next door? The only bit not owned by European powers (the Ottomans count there) was Latin America, and emmigration from there did not become significant until the second half of the 20th century, and it makes no sense to Cross an ocean back if you can get to the US.

WRT to arabs in France and blacks in america - there are of course tremendous socio-economic problems afflicting many poor and working class blacks in America. But can one imagine France today with an Arab Minister of Foreign Affairs? With as many prominent Arab officials, academics, lawyers, etc as the US has black ones? In fact i suspect the US has more such prominent Arabs than France has, despite a much smaller population of arab descent. And i certainly see no mass hatreds, expressed in politics and violence, aimed by blacks against any other group of americans, comparable to the problems facing France.

Given that a significant Arab population is only 50 years old in most of the country, I would not expect Arabs to have reached the same point as a community that has been in the US amost since day one. As for your comment about mass hatred and political violence: I fail to see the great evidence for that comment. Certainly there is racial tension in France, but to classify them as mass hatred and politcal violence is hyperbole. I can very easily see an Arab minister in France within the next 20 years, as long as they got into the right beaurocrat training schools. After all, the French have had more Jewish leaders than the US, no?

But maybe a French poster can tell us more about Arabs in the French gov.and military.

actually, GePap, I think you're wrong on the lack of cheap jobs in europe. In London, for example, there are plenty of jobs, and most are done by immigrants.

And you don;t see as much racial tension in London as you do in the older industrial cities further north were cheap service sector jobs might not be as plentifull, correct? If anything, I see this as evidence for my point. In those places in Europe were cheap labor that can be filled with immigrants, legally or illegaly, racial tensions are lower than in spots were immigrants may be seen as competing for the only jobs in the area with locals.

[Odin]

Originally posted by JohnT


Yes, well I'm sure that many an 18th century Frenchmen would've laughed at the idea of an Italian Emperor of France... but they got one!

Wrongo, buddy. Corsica is French, Italy controls Sardinia.

[Dr Strangelove]

Hey, you know the new superpower could be India. They're quiet, but that just means you have to watch them all that much more closely.

[Mr. President]

Maybe.

But India's caste system is a major holder-back.