Will nuclear bomb(s) be detonated for aggressive purposes in the next 50 years?

[Winston]

That is, during warfare or as a means of terror, not counting test detonations and possible accidents. Quite a few nations hold it as their highest ambition to add nuclear capapbility to their weapons arsenal, and the nuclear club has already expanded considerably over the last years. Today it was reported that Iran will probably be able to produce a bomb in 2-3 years' time. The balance of terror like we saw during the Cold War won't necessarily work on these new players, not under all conditions anyway.

Also the world is growing smaller, for good and for bad, so it would seem likely that individuals or organisations will someday get their hands on nuclear devices. Whether they'll be able to put them to use is another matter.

[Victor Galis]

Your question is very vague. The way it's worded, it seems to include a test done specifically for the purpose of intimidating someone else.

[Odin]

Almost certain.


Possible antagonists:

NK against Japan
Pakistan against India or vice versa
Muslin Terrorists against US or Israel
Iran against Israel

[Winston]

Victor,

I mean detonated to inflict harm on others. As in 'for real'.

[Victor Galis]

That can still be interpreted I mean if you detonate one to prove that you have one then make some demand that they only give into because of the phrase, "OUR WORDS ARE BACKED WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS!" you have done them harm, but I know what you mean.

[Worthingtons]

i find it likely that they'll be used somewhere, probably by a smallish or rogue state used as a means of Combat rather than mass population destruction, although possibly a revenge attack.

I also dread to think What Israel would do if they ever lost the support of the US. Stockpile Nukes very quickily most likely as a defense against a mass arab assault.

[Ted Striker]

I'd say it's not a matter of if but when.

Hopefully Jack Bauer will be on the case and save the day.

[Kramerman]

i see a nuke being detonated in a major US city by terroists within the next 50 years almost definatey, perhaps within the next decade... really scarey when you think we can do little but have a strong offense to defend against that.

[Al B. Sure!]

it would seem so anti-climatic that the world gets destroyed by nukes 50 years after the cold war...

[Proteus_MST]

Yes, it may be possible.

Depends on what Size they are.

Major Nuclear Bombs probably from

NK against SK, Japan or the USA assuming, that their Multistage Carrier System which can reach California will be developed further )
Pakistan and India, as mentioned.

Iran against US-Troops in Case of an Invasion, assuming that they don´t have far reaching Carrier Systems and so can´t attack the US-Mainland.

Terrorists most probably against USA or Israel.

Also I assume,
that the USA could use minor tactical Nuclear Weapons,
such as Nuclear Bunkerbusters or the like,
assuming that the Scruples against using such Weapons will decrease the more time passes since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

[CerberusIV]

Yes, but only if something more effective and easier to use doesn't become available.

[lightblue]

Originally posted by Odin
Almost certain.


Possible antagonists:

NK against Japan
Pakistan against India or vice versa
Muslin Terrorists against US or Israel
Iran against Israel

Agree, would add

Israel vs any country that threatens its existence

[Proteus_MST]

Originally posted by CerberusIV
Yes, but only if something more effective and easier to use doesn't become available.

Of course,
out of this the reason they probably also won´t use large Nukes against large concentrations of Troops.

The MOAB has almost the same psychological Effect and doesn´t carry the Stigma a nuclear Weaopon has.
And of course also doesn´t generate the same Waste

[Gangerolf]

not very likely

[Whaleboy]

Not very likely. Terrorist orgs won't be able to develop them (althuogh they could use dirty bombs, but those are very easy), small nations wouldn't use them. They are mainly a bluffers weapon.