I'll see your hijacking and raise you a dead Donald Rumsfeld...

[Japher]

Morningstar:

Code Red is up 2 points or 10% in earlier morning trading, possibly fueled by the exceptionally nice weather that we are having on the east coast, suggesting that many investors would like the day off.

Also seeing large volumes are School Bombings as children in the mid-west spend 4th period Computer Programming classes battling with the teachers to call an early day to school, Bank Robberies, and Cherry Bombings. Up 4% (to 18.25), 7.5% (to 32.35), and 10% (to 1.52) respectively.

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[MichaeltheGreat]

The whole notion is absurd. I don't find it morally objectionable, because it's just another analysis tool, but even the smartest of markets don't have sufficient granularity to act as short term predictors to be useful for intelligence purposes.

[MichaeltheGreat]

RIP: http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/07/29/ter....ap/index.html

[Kropotkin]

I thought there had to be a tread about this around here at the OT, even if it's about to die already.

One has to give it to 'em, it's a novel idea. Not that it's politically correct by (hardly) any standards is beside the point as it's not the pentagons job to make it look good.

Anyway, I think the people behind the idea belives way to much in a market system. Considering the way the media runs to and from hot spots it's probably safe to say that the market would behave in a similar fashion. It's just so much easier and direct to hire and ask a bunch of experts after all.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
I don't find it morally objectionable, because it's just another analysis tool,

Um, isn't that why we have research ethics?

[Odin]

I am betting that Arafat and Sharon will be assasinated by 2005, Bin Laden is found in Iran, and Saddam is in Tikrit.

This is just morally revolting.

[rev]

I'm sure the people at the Pentagon are pretty smart, but how was this supposed to work, exactly?

Some anonymous user or group of users bets a lot of money that X will happen on Y day.

What, do we raise the terror level again?

Man, we already have enough trouble with insider trading. We don't need to gamble with peoples' lives.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Agathon


Um, isn't that why we have research ethics?

Research ethics apply to experimentation, not to prediction. If someone was going to buy a billion in futures, then spend a hundred mil on financing a coup, you'd have a special sort of "insider trading" problem but I assume they'd planned a way to prevent that sort of market skewing activity.

rev - the purpose of the money side was to prevent people from talking out their ass. By putting their money where their mouths are, you'd separate serious assessments (in theory) from idle speculation by the likes of us peasants. The problem with that is that I think there's enough people with money to burn that they'd make spurious predictions just for the "fun" of it.

[Dis]

well that idea didn't last long. of course the goverment has to have an investigation on how this idea came to be in the first place.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Dissident
well that idea didn't last long. of course the goverment has to have an investigation on how this idea came to be in the first place.

Actually, they're setting up a website and asking us to bet on the possible sources. I've got "Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Rice, and some wicked Thai Stick" at 5 to 3.