Hamas ceasefire!

[Kidlicious]

Does this mean that Hamas is getting their ass kicked?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by lord of the mark
the nominal reason or the real reason?

Both.

[lord of the mark]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
Both.

Nominal - they're an important player, they're a legitimate charity.

Real - take your pick 1. To maintain relations with the harder line elements in the Arab world. 2. To appease certain elements in the French population. 3. To sabotage the Road Map and make trouble for "the hyperpower" 4. To play good cop/bad cop, and thus to help the US and Israel in dealing with Hamas. 5. Cause they honestly believe the nominal reasons.

Figuring out French policy is neve all that easy, is it?

[Spiffor]

LOTM :

1. is very likely. France has a net of relations in the ME that it prefers being unchanged. Appeasing them would be better for the French siplomacy's interests. This was one of the reasons behind France's efforts to avoid war in Iraq.

2. is somehow likely, but I don't think so. The Islamists are trying to gain power among the French Arabic population, but aren't that well installed yet. However, there are two important works in progress from his government regarding the issue :
The first one is that Chirac made his campaign on domestic safety, at a time where most troublemakers were considered by the general population to come from impoverished suburbs, many being of Arab descent. Since Chirac's election, the media has been much less noisy about it, which gives the illusion of success (I have no idea of what the actual outcome is). Chirac is highly interested in having no trouble in this area: the illusion must not break.
The second one is the organization of the important Muslim minority into one only spokespartner of the State (like the Catholic church and the Jews already are). To date, the lack of hierarchy in the Muslim religion made it impossible for the State to have one consistent spokespartner. The "French Muslim Council" has been elected sooner this year, at the price of great compromise from each of the Muslim factions. It is possible the government doesn't want to create discord, to make sure the organization has the time to develop itself.

3. I very strongly doubt France wants to sabotage the Road Map. If it wanted to have done so, it would have done before, at the time of the elaboration, through the EU membership in the quartet. Besides, a stable ME is in France's interests, if only because it will calm down the tensions between Muslims and Jews here.
Besides, the diplomatic mood is to reconciliation with the US, and wild love with Britain. For at least a few months, we will not oppose UK or US requests for the sake of it, at all.

4. It could be. The Hamas, despite being a despicable organization, is sadly an important actor in the war, and as such can have a significant role in the peace. If the diplomatic belief in Paris is that the Hamas simply won't go away (I don't know), then discussing with it and being aware of its demands is a necessary evil. If France/EU can play the middleman between Israel and Hamas, it might result in a betterment of the peace process.

5. An important player : obviously. It is impossible to disregard them if you try to adress the new intifada.
A legitimate charity : I cannot imagine anybody in the diplomatic circle being glad to see the charity in the hands of violent fundamentalist hatemongers.


In short, I think the French willingness to still work with the Hamas may come from our love relationship with every ******* in power in the region, from Chirac's obsession not to risk stirring any trouble with the French Muslims for now, and from the idea that disregarding Hamas in the negotiations is simply impossible.

I think the latter argument is justified. As much as I loathe the Hamas, Israel doesn't seem to do the right thing to avoid this monster to regenerate. As such, the Hamas is a fact of life there, and has to be listened to, as much as we hate what it tells.

[Crazy American]

I am sure that all the Europeans are happy now that those murders may get away. I just wish our leaders would take a step back and let Israel deal with them on their own terms. Maybe some day we will realize that it is Israel that is the victim here and not the Pal.

Well ok, Israel has in the past been a little too aggressive but it's only because they have had little choice.

[Spiffor]

You should perfect your DL skills

[Crazy American]

I can download things quiet good thank you.

[Cruddy]

I was waiting for some comment from Hamas before dancing for joy - Fatah says a lot of stuff that sound good but is just complete bunk.

Mind you, it's interesting that at least some Hamas people are leaning that way - maybe some of them realise their goal is unrealistic.

As for Israeli botched assassination jobs - I'd say every one that caused injury or death apart from the target was a botch. It certainly isn't giving Israel any credit as a humane, caring country, whatever the realities of individual Israelis.

I await Sunday with interest. If it happens, I await Monday and on with bated breath... unlike others I think it COULD work.

It depends how anti-agressive is the stance on both sides.

[Az]

Originally posted by Crazy American
I can download things quiet good thank you.

Typical DL!

There is no way a non-DL would answer something like this!!

[mrmitchell]

[mrmitchell]

Damnit! While I was trying to find the stupid pic, a DL came by before I could dance him!

Wait...wait...NO DANCE YET!

[Lorizael]

To secure peace is
To prepare for war

Seemed fitting, given some of the comments in here.