Rugby - Advantage Over!

[finbar]

Originally posted by Caligastia
I was a bit puzzled when shortly after SA got that penalty kick

You mean the penalty against, from memory, McCaw? It was a dreadful decision. McCaw had made the tackle, got back to his feet, and was legitimately playing the ball. The ref was out of position and hadn't seen that McCaw had done everything required. All he saw was McCaw trying to play the ball - apparently - illegally.

NZ got a penalty and Carlos opted to kick from the sideline. I knew he would miss it as he usually does from there. Surely the better option would have been to kick for touch and go for the try. NZ really need to get a better goalkicker.

Yes, Carlos' unreliability could cost them in a close match. Their problem now, though, is that with Aaron Mauger back at inside centre - and, I reckon, they look a vastly better unit with Mauger knitting everything together - there's now no room for their best goal kicker, Daniel Carter. That said, I think the right decision - to kick for goal - was made. You have to get points on the board early, particularly when the oppo already has. And your choices - goal kick or touch kick - can't be dictated by the probability or otherwise of the goal kicker kicking straight. At Test level, you have to assume he will. Unfortunately, Carlos doesn't always.

I think Carlos' goal kicking problems are going to haunt Mitchell between now and the WRC. Mitchell has sacrificed Mehrtens' reliable goal kicking for Carlos' undeniable skills elsewhere. Very interesting trade-off. And potentially costly. Ultimately, Mitchell might have to count on the ABs scoring sufficient tries to render the points from conversions and penalty goals redundant.

I particularly liked that try from Howlett in which he had to tippy toe down the touchline without touching the corner flag. Great skills from him.

Sublime skills. It takes a rare talent to know exactly where your body is in space, particularly at speed and under pressure.

Frankly, the ABs made the Boks look like the outfit that struggled against Scotland and the Pumas. Which, IMHO, is a fair indication of where the Boks are in world rugby. Thus it is to the Wallabies' eternal discredit that they lost last week. The ABs did everything the Wallabies couldn't, and did it with enormous style, to boot. They exposed Brett Russell as a talented 7s player who struggles in the hurly burly of the 15-man game when we couldn't; they copped the Boks' early onslaught and strong defence and countered both with intelligent options when we couldn't. As I said, I think Aaron Mauger's return from injury is one of the keys - he knits them together. Last night, they were starting to look like a very well-oiled machine, and when the ABs do that, they become a very scary proposition.

[finbar]

Don't let it burn a hole in your pockets, lads!

Okay, time to settle on the bets after last night.

There was a pool of 80 Civ Gold available, with four of us winning, with three of us winning fractions of 2/7th, and one of us winning a fraction of 1/7th. All in all, a decimal point nightmare, because there's no way of achieving parity. So, as banker, I took it upon myself to round up the respective winning figures to different degrees in order to achieve a round figure, with the two smallest Bank A/c balances - Frozzy's and mine - receiving a couple of decimal points more than the others. So sue me!

Thus our updated Bank A/c reads as follows:

Andydog 286.5
Bearcat 80.5
Caligastia 94.5
finbar 11.5+23 = 34.5
Frozzy 65+23 = 88
Havak 86.55+11.5 = 98.05
Journeyman 122.5
LDiCesares 121.8+22.5 = 144.3
Mickeyj 143.5
NeoStar 114
ravagon 90.25
redbull 80
Tamerlin 69.3

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by finbar


You mean the penalty against, from memory, McCaw? It was a dreadful decision. McCaw had made the tackle, got back to his feet, and was legitimately playing the ball. The ref was out of position and hadn't seen that McCaw had done everything required. All he saw was McCaw trying to play the ball - apparently - illegally.

Yeah, that's the one. I forgot to winge about the ref's decision.

Yes, Carlos' unreliability could cost them in a close match. Their problem now, though, is that with Aaron Mauger back at inside centre - and, I reckon, they look a vastly better unit with Mauger knitting everything together - there's now no room for their best goal kicker, Daniel Carter. That said, I think the right decision - to kick for goal - was made. You have to get points on the board early, particularly when the oppo already has. And your choices - goal kick or touch kick - can't be dictated by the probability or otherwise of the goal kicker kicking straight. At Test level, you have to assume he will. Unfortunately, Carlos doesn't always.

He can get a few good kicks through on the odd occasion, so it's not like he doesn't have the potential. Perhaps he just needs more coaching.

I think Carlos' goal kicking problems are going to haunt Mitchell between now and the WRC. Mitchell has sacrificed Mehrtens' reliable goal kicking for Carlos' undeniable skills elsewhere. Very interesting trade-off. And potentially costly. Ultimately, Mitchell might have to count on the ABs scoring sufficient tries to render the points from conversions and penalty goals redundant.

Well, that certainly was the case in this last game, but I think a more accurate goal kicker would be called for when playing teams like England. Perhaps Carlos will improve his kicking game as much as he has with the rest of his game.

Frankly, the ABs made the Boks look like the outfit that struggled against Scotland and the Pumas. Which, IMHO, is a fair indication of where the Boks are in world rugby. Thus it is to the Wallabies' eternal discredit that they lost last week. The ABs did everything the Wallabies couldn't, and did it with enormous style, to boot. They exposed Brett Russell as a talented 7s player who struggles in the hurly burly of the 15-man game when we couldn't; they copped the Boks' early onslaught and strong defence and countered both with intelligent options when we couldn't. As I said, I think Aaron Mauger's return from injury is one of the keys - he knits them together. Last night, they were starting to look like a very well-oiled machine, and when the ABs do that, they become a very scary proposition.

I tend to think the Wallabies will lift their game against the All Blacks next week, but I still reckon NZ will win fairly comfortably. NZ might finally get the Bledisloe Cup back this year!

[finbar]

Originally posted by Caligastia
He can get a few good kicks through on the odd occasion, so it's not like he doesn't have the potential. Perhaps he just needs more coaching.

I think it's a mental difficulty dealing with pressure more than a physical technique problem. I'm also sure that he has been receiving a massive amount of kicking coaching.

Well, that certainly was the case in this last game, but I think a more accurate goal kicker would be called for when playing teams like England.

Easier said than done. Daniel Carter is a vastly superior kicker, but he's a centre, and Mauger, back from injury, has taken his spot. Where else does Carter fit into the existing line up? As I said, Mitchell has traded off Mehrtens' goal-kicking for Carlos' skills elsewhere. Mitchell has gambled, it's as simple as that.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by finbar


I think it's a mental difficulty dealing with pressure more than a physical technique problem. I'm also sure that he has been receiving a massive amount of kicking coaching.

Yeah, I'm sure. Do you remember whether or not Grant Fox is still having anything to do with the All Blacks? He's always been known for preaching mental strength as the most important factor in a Rugby game. Carlos should probably consult with him.

Easier said than done. Daniel Carter is a vastly superior kicker, but he's a centre, and Mauger, back from injury, has taken his spot. Where else does Carter fit into the existing line up? As I said, Mitchell has traded off Mehrtens' goal-kicking for Carlos' skills elsewhere. Mitchell has gambled, it's as simple as that.

I think it would be a good idea for him to keep Daniel Carter in the loop when he can risk it though. Certain teams...sh...play more running rugby than others, after all.

[finbar]

Originally posted by Caligastia
Yeah, I'm sure. Do you remember whether or not Grant Fox is still having anything to do with the All Blacks? He's always been known for preaching mental strength as the most important factor in a Rugby game. Carlos should probably consult with him.

I think Fox is involved with whichever team Carlos plays for in the NPC.

I think it would be a good idea for him to keep Daniel Carter in the loop when he can risk it though.

Yes, but how? Goal kicking will be of most importance in the close games, meaning against the better opposition. So Carter comes into the centres against the better opposition? Replacing whom? Umaga? Mauger? I think you have to accept that Mitchell has gambled, and, in doing so, has severely restricted his goal kicking options.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by finbar


I think Fox is involved with whichever team Carlos plays for in the NPC.

The Blues. So I guess Carlos just has to sort himself out.

Yes, but how? Goal kicking will be of most importance in the close games, meaning against the better opposition. So Carter comes into the centres against the better opposition? Replacing whom? Umaga? Mauger? I think you have to accept that Mitchell has gambled, and, in doing so, has severely restricted his goal kicking options.

You know what? I think Mitchell is taking a gamble. A gamble that serverely restricts the All Blacks' options for kicks at goal.

[Havak]

What a great game that was. Really enjoyable rugby for the neutral. The ABs back line has to be the most cohesive exciting unit in world rugby.

Of course it wasn’t quite perfect – but more on that later.

MacDonalds is the most consumed food in the world. Doesn't necessarily make it the best.

But it does differentiate it from England quite nicely – for the red rose is the best.

Yep. It has already happened. No penalty. It probably helped that the card against the Boks was a joke.

Where is Tamerlin when I need him? The way SANZAR keep not punishing players is becoming a joke – regardless of how silly the last card was. What excuse will they make if he gets carded again on Saturday?

Yeah, bummer. It was odd. He came up feeling his chest after scoring the try last weekend. It looked like he'd winded himself falling on the ball or something.

Rib cartilage wasn’t it? To say he is a huge loss when facing the All Blacks is somewhat of an understatement.

Huh? I thought the French pack of that match was "second string"?

‘Huh?’ It was a ‘second string’ lacking six first choice players including both flankers – and it still disrupted your pack hugely. As Finbar pointed out that was my point in a nutshell.

As for Scotland sure it’s a nice country – but freezing in winter and wet and midge ridden in summer. Give me the English midlands any day.

I particularly liked that try from Howlett in which he had to tippy toe down the touchline without touching the corner flag. Great skills from him.

He’s from the top drawer – that was by no means easy from him.

Mitchell might have to count on the ABs scoring sufficient tries to render the points from conversions and penalty goals redundant.

Not very realistic is it? If we can temporarily halt the AB praising session they are not going to dominate every team like that. I’m picking up a vibe that maybe Caligastia and Finbar both feel the ABs can rely on doing this to England – despite the fact that they just failed to do so twice in 7 months?

The game on Saturday convinced me that whilst the ABs may not have played well against us – we mis-fired even worse. That AB pack is there for the taking most of the time. Launch a defence if you care to but they failed to really assert themselves against the Boks who man for man in several key positions played the better game (number 8 being a case in point – who is that lad the ABs picked as he looked out his depth?).

Young McCaw was fairly quiet wasn’t he? Some huge tackles and some nice work towards the death but a very anonymous first forty from the boy?

Last night, they were starting to look like a very well-oiled machine, and when the ABs do that, they become a very scary proposition.

An awesome back line and a very exciting team to watch – but still completely beatable. Do not rule out an upset in Australia.

The referee (Irish despite the French sounding name) had a fairly good game. He was absolutely right with the sin binning don’t you think?

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak
Where is Tamerlin when I need him? The way SANZAR keep not punishing players is becoming a joke – regardless of how silly the last card was. What excuse will they make if he gets carded again on Saturday?

He's doubtful for Saturday, anyway, with a hammy.

Rib cartilage wasn’t it? To say he is a huge loss when facing the All Blacks is somewhat of an understatement.

Just somewhat.

As for Scotland sure it’s a nice country – but freezing in winter and wet and midge ridden in summer. Give me the English midlands any day.

Yes, but there's a crucial, fundamental difference between the English midlands - well, all of England, if it comes to that - and Scotland.

Not very realistic is it? If we can temporarily halt the AB praising session they are not going to dominate every team like that. I’m picking up a vibe that maybe Caligastia and Finbar both feel the ABs can rely on doing this to England – despite the fact that they just failed to do so twice in 7 months?

I don't think anyone said - I didn't, anyway - they will dominate every team like that. As I said in an earlier post, with great respect to the Bok supporters, the match only underlined where the Boks stand in world rugby. Which, as I also said, further condemns our effort against them. All of which is a lead up to me suggesting that the only team I can see the ABs dominating in the near future is the Wallabies on Saturday. Oh, and for goodness sake, don't tell me the Wallabies will lift against them. They probably will. But a quality rugby team shouldn't have to count on "lifting" to be competitive in a match.

(number 8 being a case in point – who is that lad the ABs picked as he looked out his depth?).

Actually, I thought he put in a pretty solid effort.

Young McCaw was fairly quiet wasn’t he? Some huge tackles and some nice work towards the death but a very anonymous first forty from the boy?

I think we were watching different games. The Bok forwards, though, did make a mess of some of the AB lineouts and aftermaths. Still, they had to achieve something on the night.

The referee (Irish despite the French sounding name) had a fairly good game. He was absolutely right with the sin binning don’t you think?

Talk about highs and lows. Score a try, get sent off. The ref was fair enough. Except for the ridiculous penalty against McCaw early on, given only because he - the ref - was a mile out of position and hadn't seen McCaw observe all the rules before playing the ball. Which was odd, because, for most of the match, he was right up with the play. Certainly not one of Eddie's "unfit refs". Oh, and despite the occasional penalty, the amount of blatant offside he missed was quite bizarre.

So what are your thoughts on the Mitchell gamble with Carlos' kicking? Which was, after all, the point of my reference to Mitchell needing them to score enough tries to make the goal kicking redundant. Carter is his only alternative in the squad - that I know of - and he's a specialist centre, and he's hardly going to replace either Mauger or Umaga simply for his kicking, I'd've thought. Will the ghost of Mr Mehrtens come back to haunt?

[Frozzy]

Originally posted by Caligastia
You know what? I think Mitchell is taking a gamble. A gamble that serverely restricts the All Blacks' options for kicks at goal.

One name: Ben Blair.

[finbar]

Fair enough. But where is he?

[Havak]

He's doubtful for Saturday, anyway, with a hammy.

Well that at least defers the problem I guess.

Yes, but there's a crucial, fundamental difference between the English midlands - well, all of England, if it comes to that - and Scotland.

True enough – but we don’t like to crow too much about how much better the hospitality is down here.

I don't think anyone said - I didn't, anyway - they will dominate every team like that

I was just having a bit of mischievous fun there to be honest.

Sure the ABs are red hot favourites – and totally on fire. They have gone into many matches with the Wallabies in the same situation and not born out the favourites tag of course.

Any ideas on the spread?

As for lifting the game I take your point but I think the reality is that all sides do it. Team may be Professional and there is a need to be respectful of opponents but with all that said I am sure England don’t ‘lift’ their game for Italy in the same way they do for the Tri-nations teams. It tends to be good clinical rugby but the intensity never matches those other fixtures. The Wallabies are no different in the intensity – it’s the good clinical rugger that can be missing (I’m thinking the scramble against the taffs). You could see last month that with every ounce of their being they wanted to thwart the Poms – all they need to do Saturday is see Black shirts as being white.

I think we were watching different games.

Dunno about that – but I do think the Bok 8 and the openside (Van Herden?) did well in adversity. Krige was forced to play a cynical game and that swinging arm was in evidence again…

Oh, and despite the occasional penalty, the amount of blatant offside he missed was quite bizarre.

Yes but there would have been no continuity if he had pinged the ABs every time.



I’m joking of course – both sides had no idea where the game line was.

On the kicking front I can only say that Spencer has proved he is not the man. If he can mess up like that with the pressure totally off what will happen when he tires it in the cauldron of a close run match?

Yes I would say the spectre of Mehrtens is looming over the ABs. Interesting dilemma for Mitchell.

I thought Blair had been discarded from the squad?

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak


Well that at least defers the problem I guess.

Mmmm. Now they're saying he will probably play. Oh well, if he's going to punch someone this week, he'd better make it count.

Sure the ABs are red hot favourites – and totally on fire. They have gone into many matches with the Wallabies in the same situation and not born out the favourites tag of course.

That's true. The Tri-Nations stats are fascinating. The Wallabies have only beaten the Boks once in SA; the ABs regularly beat them over there; but the Wallabies have beaten the ABs in 7 out of the last 10 contests. I suppose it's a question of whether the obvious pattern continues. The other stat that must come into the equation is the one I think I referred to the other day - while the Wallabies were once famous for winning the close ones, they haven't been able to do so in recent times.

Any ideas on the spread?

Mmmmm. Curly one. The Wallabies will lift, of course. I'm not sure how to factor that into the spread. Surely we'd have to be looking at at least 7 to 10 points?

As for lifting the game I take your point but I think the reality is that all sides do it. Team may be Professional and there is a need to be respectful of opponents but with all that said I am sure England don’t ‘lift’ their game for Italy in the same way they do for the Tri-nations teams. It tends to be good clinical rugby but the intensity never matches those other fixtures. The Wallabies are no different in the intensity – it’s the good clinical rugger that can be missing (I’m thinking the scramble against the taffs). You could see last month that with every ounce of their being they wanted to thwart the Poms – all they need to do Saturday is see Black shirts as being white.

I agree with all of that. My point, though, was that it's a sad state of affairs when you have to count on "lifting" in order to be competitive. Obviously, it's preferable to be competitive simply running onto the field.

Dunno about that – but I do think the Bok 8 and the openside (Van Herden?) did well in adversity. Krige was forced to play a cynical game and that swinging arm was in evidence again…

Sorry, I really thought Collins - the AB #8 - had it all over the Bok #8. I remember being impressed by Collins because I hadn't been the last time I saw him, which was around the time I was bemoaning Taine Randell's absence. As to Mr Krige - yes, he did resort to some of his old ways, but we've both seen him do a lot worse than that. I was actually surprised, given the position his team was in, that he restrained himself. Hopefully a good sign for him, because I think he's a talented, very courageous player.

Yes but there would have been no continuity if he had pinged the ABs every time.



I’m joking of course – both sides had no idea where the game line was.

Yes, very droll. So why did the ref let so much of it go? Tamerlin - who was due back on the 20th - is obviously back and lying low, too embarrassed to show his face after a NH ref gave us a perfect impersonation of his definition of a SH ref.

Yes I would say the spectre of Mehrtens is looming over the ABs. Interesting dilemma for Mitchell.

Fascinating. I can't see any way he'll bring back Mehrtens because their game is now built around Carlos' style, which couldn't be more different to Mehrtens'.

I thought Blair had been discarded from the squad?

No, he's in the squad, he just didn't make the bench against the Boks. I don't recall him as a kicker, but Frozzy says he is, so he must be. But he's also a specialist fullback, isn't he? So there's only one spot for him if there's a thought of an insurance policy against Carlos flubbing it. And I thought the AB fullback - starts with M, I can never spell the rest of it - did pretty well against the Boks.

Oh, and I told Mrs finbar that under no circumstances was she to commit me to any sort of social event - involving either me going out or people coming here - this Saturday night.

[Havak]

7 to 10 points has to be reasonable I think.

Obviously, it's preferable to be competitive simply running onto the field.

I think only the ABs, recent history aside, have ever managed this with any consistency?

Hopefully a good sign for him, because I think he's a talented, very courageous player.

Yes I agree with you. But for me it doesn’t compensate his habit of occasionally trying to serious injure fellow Professionals.

too embarrassed to show his face after a NH ref gave us a perfect impersonation of his definition of a SH ref.

He’ll be back I’m sure.

You raise a good point. I’d like to expand on it by asking when did you last see a ref, NH or SH, police offside well? I think we are dealing with a flavour of the season thing here – the same factor was evident in the six nations as we are now seeing in the tri nations and it’s too big a coincidence?

Fascinating. I can't see any way he'll bring back Mehrtens because their game is now built around Carlos' style, which couldn't be more different to Mehrtens'.

Very much built around him now – and that will not have been lost on Eddie. I’m expecting some big hits on Carlos early doors. Maybe from Waughy (who Planet Rugby have flattering likened to an Uruk Hai this week).

And I thought the AB fullback - starts with M, I can never spell the rest of it - did pretty well against the Boks.

He did yes. Is he Fijian?

Oh, and I told Mrs finbar that under no circumstances was she to commit me to any sort of social event - involving either me going out or people coming here - this Saturday night

Well absolutely – prioirites have to be set out.

[Frozzy]

No, he's in the squad, he just didn't make the bench against the Boks. I don't recall him as a kicker, but Frozzy says he is, so he must be. But he's also a specialist fullback, isn't he? So there's only one spot for him if there's a thought of an insurance policy against Carlos flubbing it. And I thought the AB fullback - starts with M, I can never spell the rest of it - did pretty well against the Boks.

Ben Blair kicked 31 points for Canturbury against Hawkes' Bay in the NPC Pre-Season. Canturbury won 70-odd 10.