Rugby - Advantage Over!

[finbar]

Not to mention Havak's secret formula. The Wallabies are the team he least wants to face in the WRC.

[Havak]

Obviously Havak would get the gig as Technical Advisor for a fee of a carton of crisps and a keg of bitter.

I clearly don't come cheap.

Undoubtably qualified for sainthood.

I’ve been arguing he should be so elevated for years.

I can understand Paradox being pleased – it was a hugely improved performance from the Boks and their second try was simply beautiful – the ‘pocket rocket’ is a first class player without a doubt. That said we ought not to get carried away – they won narrowly against a Wallaby side that totally mis-fired on the day – I’d be amazed if they get anything from the return fixture to be honest.

I had to balance watching the rugger with keeping an eye on England easily beating RSA in the one day final at Lords (and that was very enjoyable Finbar – Kallis when bowling defending a low total of 107 gave away 16 in just one wayward over – England won by 7 wickets and took only 2 balls over 20 overs to do it).

I have to admit I cringed as the Aussie hooker messed up throw after throw Saturday – here’s hoping Jeremy Paul is making full use of his wake up call to try and push back in. But the problems up front are deeper rooted – Noriega is very clearly a spent force and Jones must try to bring something through. Bill Young et al just don’t seem to have the class to be international coal facers? It’s crippling a pack with a very decent back five to lack a cutting edge in their front row.

I was fairly impressed with Waughy again – throwing himself around – and Sailor continues to suggest he is starting to ‘get’ Union. Certainly the try was nicely taken and it is impressive to see players like De Wet Barry trying to tackle the man around the torso and falling off – he is a big powerful man and you are not going to stop him that way easily.

Sure the Bok defence was offside a lot – but Jones should have anticipated that as Mr Walsh does not have a reputation for policing offside vigourously (where is Tamerlin when you need him?)

I was pleased to see you pick up Gregan taking too many steps backwards before off loading – it had to be gameplan of some sort to be standing so deep? Regardless with the Boks pushing up so hard it gave George all sorts of pressure – it’s not like the forwards were shielding him particularly well either (back to that front row deficiency again?).

I think calls to lynch Eddie are premature myself
I would like to see him alter his approach though and concentrate on coaching and stop these traditional pre-match referee baiting sessions – whatever he is trying to achieve it clearly isn’t working.

Who will they face if they make the QFs? So far this year they have been very Jekyll and Hyde – solid against Ireland, shaky against Wales, out their skins against England and error ridden against the Boks. By crikey they will have to play like they did against us when they face the ABs or it could get real messy.

As Havak says, when you're at or near the top - as we once were - other teams lift against you.

Kind of you not to also mention that I normally couple that with “when you are England everyone hates you and lifts their game”. Its certainly true that we didn’t see the same Wallaby effort that they made against England and Eddie needs to ask the big question – why?

Such a generous chap - willing to part with civ-gold just to put the hex on the Australians.

I’d love to take credit here – but I never deliberately lose money, even pseudo money like Civ Gold.

So to match Ravagons and Caligastia’s formula I need to back the Boks next time out – but the problem is I fancy a bet on the ABs. Can you change my mind in time?

And Finbar is dead right – of all the sides in the mix I don’t want us to face the Aussies in Australia in the RWC. I’d rather someone else (that they don’t get so motivated against – say France or the ABs) knocks them out before that can happen.

[LDiCesare]

I only got to see the tries, so that doesn't give a good idea of what the match was like. I'd tend to think that the TriNations favourites are the ABs now. I'll wage 20 civ gold on their victory in the next match.

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak


I clearly don't come cheap.

Frankly, I couldn't see you holding out for two cartons of crisps.

– the ‘pocket rocket’ is a first class player without a doubt.

I'm not sure why they don't start him.

That said we ought not to get carried away – they won narrowly against a Wallaby side that totally mis-fired on the day –

That was the bizarre thing. We played so appallingly, outscored them, and possibly could have won. And wouldn't have deserved it if we had.

I had to balance watching the rugger with keeping an eye on England easily beating RSA in the one day final at Lords (and that was very enjoyable Finbar – Kallis when bowling defending a low total of 107 gave away 16 in just one wayward over – England won by 7 wickets and took only 2 balls over 20 overs to do it).

Yes, I saw it. Those sorts of days happen. I saw Kallis get out playing a shot he plays once every 5 years.

I have to admit I cringed as the Aussie hooker messed up throw after throw Saturday – here’s hoping Jeremy Paul is making full use of his wake up call to try and push back in.

But Jeremy's throwing isn't a lot better. Cannon is, usually, better than that with the throws. It was only some spectacular jumping by Giffen and Vickerman that saw them take quite a few throws that could easily have gone the other way.

But the problems up front are deeper rooted – Noriega is very clearly a spent force and Jones must try to bring something through.

It was telling that I only realised he was on the field halfway through the game when his name was called. There aren't any replacements for him, that's the problem I've been pointing out for twelve months. We don't have anyone better than the incumbents, just alternatives. Ben Darwin, from memory, replaced Noriega, and he's a young prop with some sort of future, but definitely not any sort of ready-made top liner.

I was fairly impressed with Waughy again – throwing himself around –

You get your money's worth out of him, that's for sure. Nice tough try, too. Strong boy for someone who'd be lucky to be 5' 10".

and Sailor continues to suggest he is starting to ‘get’ Union. Certainly the try was nicely taken and it is impressive to see players like De Wet Barry trying to tackle the man around the torso and falling off – he is a big powerful man and you are not going to stop him that way easily.

I will be prepared to admit I was wrong about Wendell. Not just yet, but heading in that direction. He's improved about 70% in the space of a couple of months. His kick infield that led to the amazing Bok try was bad luck - for him - more than anything. At least he was thinking.

Sure the Bok defence was offside a lot – but Jones should have anticipated that as Mr Walsh does not have a reputation for policing offside vigourously (where is Tamerlin when you need him?)

As I said, they didn't show an ounce of nouse trying to deal with what the Boks were so obviously doing. And all the Boks did was a much tougher version of what Wales did to us. They couldn't cope with it against Wales, and even less so against the Boks. Where does the problem lie? If Gregan doesn't notice it on the field and do something about it, Eddie - or his myriad back-up people - should do something about it. It was mindless, suicidal rugby.

I was pleased to see you pick up Gregan taking too many steps backwards before off loading – it had to be gameplan of some sort to be standing so deep? Regardless with the Boks pushing up so hard it gave George all sorts of pressure – it’s not like the forwards were shielding him particularly well either (back to that front row deficiency again?).

I don't know why they were standing so deep. The Wallabies were once the masters of the flat line. Okay, try the deep approach, but when it's patently obviously not working, change it. And, as you say, where was the protection for Gregan? Where, for that matter, was the protection for any of the Wallabies when they were crunched in tackles? It was, constantly, one Wallaby being swarmed over by half a dozen Boks with the support nowhere to be seen. I mean, it's schoolboy stuff!

I think calls to lynch Eddie are premature myself

I'm beginning to wonder about him. There are some very, very talented players in that side. Either he doesn't have a messsage to get across, or he does and they're not hearing him. Or is he simply a very good S12 coach who knows there's a big difference between S12 and Tests - because he says there is - but can't bridge the gap himself?

I would like to see him alter his approach though and concentrate on coaching and stop these traditional pre-match referee baiting sessions – whatever he is trying to achieve it clearly isn’t working.

Sorry, the pre-match stuff is, relatively speaking, meaningless. He wouldn't spend training sessions planning what he's going to say to the media. The problem is as I indicated above - either he hasn't got it, or he has and the team isn't hearing it.

Who will they face if they make the QFs?

Dunno off hand. I'll have to check.

So far this year they have been very Jekyll and Hyde – solid against Ireland, shaky against Wales, out their skins against England and error ridden against the Boks.

Which is a continuation from last November's ordinary against the Pumas, appalling against the Irish, out of their skins against England. There's a very clear pattern. Ray Charles could see it. And it's simply not good enough for a professional rugby team.

Kind of you not to also mention that I normally couple that with “when you are England everyone hates you and lifts their game”.

I assumed that was understood.

Its certainly true that we didn’t see the same Wallaby effort that they made against England and Eddie needs to ask the big question – why?

I'm sure the question has been asked. As indicated above, we're eight months down the track with no answer on the horizon.

[Caligastia]

Originally posted by Havak
So to match Ravagons and Caligastia’s formula I need to back the Boks next time out – but the problem is I fancy a bet on the ABs. Can you change my mind in time?

Perhaps if I bet on the boks it will undo your curse.

[Havak]

I couldn't see you holding out for two cartons of crisps.

Wouldn’t dream of it. Two barrels of beer on the other hand…

That was the bizarre thing. We played so appallingly, outscored them, and possibly could have won. And wouldn't have deserved it if we had.

The Wallabies have a knack of just sneaking the result – no other team does it so regularly. Sometimes it is thoroughly deserved – on Saturday as you say it would not have been.

I’m not trying to **** Bok fans off but as Krige himself said the ABs are a better side than the Wallabies right now and they need to stay focused – after all the Wallabies out scored them on tries and only the boot of Mr Koen made the difference in the end – it looks like they have finally found a boot worthy of succeeding in the mould of Stransky?

I saw Kallis get out playing a shot he plays once every 5 years.

He had a bad day all round. Head in the wrong place entirely I suspect. What I like about this England one day side is they are finally experimenting – its crammed full of youngsters and some are developing nicely. Vaughan as one day skipper is doing a solid job – and he remains an elegant bat.

It was only some spectacular jumping by Giffen and Vickerman that saw them take quite a few throws that could easily have gone the other way.

They are a good pairing – and they did well in adversity. Sharpy looked much fitter too. But you can’t afford Cannon to have another outing like that when you face the ABs.

We don't have anyone better than the incumbents, just alternatives. Ben Darwin, from memory, replaced Noriega, and he's a young prop with some sort of future, but definitely not any sort of ready-made top liner.

Whats available in that U21 side we saw up here recently? It would be better to play a young blood than older hands that aren’t good enough. I only noticed Noriega had been replaced when Stransky (we got the Bok commentary feed) pointed out Darwin was there – it made no difference to the scrum certainly.

Nice tough try, too. Strong boy for someone who'd be lucky to be 5' 10".

Didn’t he take it well – I was very impressed with that. The more I see of the boy the better he seems. No problems for you in the openside slot at the moment.

He's improved about 70% in the space of a couple of months. His kick infield that led to the amazing Bok try was bad luck - for him - more than anything. At least he was thinking.

I’ll be even kinder to him and suggest he got taken a smidgen late when he kicked on there?

If Gregan doesn't notice it on the field and do something about it, Eddie - or his myriad back-up people - should do something about it.

Is adaptive rugby the strength of either of them? Gregan is a great skipper by personal example but he is no sainted one when it come to tactical decisions is he?

It was, constantly, one Wallaby being swarmed over by half a dozen Boks with the support nowhere to be seen. I mean, it's schoolboy stuff!

It’s worrying. It’s fundamental as you say – people get hurt when they get exposed like that.

I'm beginning to wonder about him.

Eddie always strikes me as being similar to Clive in one way – when it goes wrong it is someone elses fault. His post match comments were scathing of the way the boys played but they didn’t seem to acknowledge in anyway that the lads must have been following his game plan?

In any case it is time to ask questions – the hallmark of the great Wallaby sides has been consistency and this side is now all over the shop – sometimes inspired, sometimes dire.

Sorry, the pre-match stuff is, relatively speaking, meaningless.

It’s a personal bugbear of mine. I’d still rather he concentrated on his team not the officials.

Of course the ARU really can’t be seen to be pressuring the coach just three months before the RWC – but I’m sure behind the scenes they are looking at things carefully.

Lets be honest if the Wallabies lift the World Cup Jones will be forgiven everything. If the ABs lift it he will probably be dismissed. If England lift it there will be a public hanging.

Perhaps if I bet on the boks it will undo your curse.

The way your luck runs not likely. You could fall in a manure pile and come up smelling of roses at the moment after that bet last weekend.

Are we looking at a five point start to the ABs?

[ravagon]

Originally posted by Havak

So to match Ravagons and Caligastia’s formula I need to back the Boks next time out – but the problem is I fancy a bet on the ABs. Can you change my mind in time?

That particular part of the formula only applies to you when you're backing Australia specifically.

In the general case, the real clincher is the possibility of both you and finbar backing the same team.
Such an occasion has to be either the most dead-certain-outcome event in the history of dead-certain-outcome events or it'll create such a cosmic backlash in karma that the unfortunate team you both happen to back will be lucky if the team bus arrives at the right fixture.

Are we looking at a five point start to the ABs?

I'm not entirely unbiased of course but if its more than 7 I'll be strongly tempted to back the Boks. They are on a mini-roll, confidence-wise so to speak, and it will be played at altitude so they may not have quite the same underdog status that everybody thought before the last game.

[finbar]

Originally posted by LDiCesare
I only got to see the tries, so that doesn't give a good idea of what the match was like. I'd tend to think that the TriNations favourites are the ABs now. I'll wage 20 civ gold on their victory in the next match.

Sorry, I missed this post. So that's 20 Civ Gold on the ABs against the Boks?

[Caligastia]

Five point start?? I'll definitely back the Boks if that's the case. What do you think finbar?

[finbar]

Originally posted by Havak

The Wallabies have a knack of just sneaking the result – no other team does it so regularly. .

Yes, although as someone pointed out in the media this morning, they're now losing the close ones. Which could be indicative of something. I'm just not sure what, though it's worrying.

I’m not trying to **** Bok fans off but as Krige himself said the ABs are a better side than the Wallabies right now and they need to stay focused – after all the Wallabies out scored them on tries and only the boot of Mr Koen made the difference in the end – it looks like they have finally found a boot worthy of succeeding in the mould of Stransky?

Their defence was outstanding. As offside as it was for most of the time. One of their tries was basically one of those freak efforts. Beyond that, and a couple of individual efforts, there was nothing classy about them. Which isn't sour grapes, and I'm not trying to **** anyone off either. The Wallabies were just absolute crap. A classier side would and should have beaten the Wallabies by more.

He had a bad day all round. Head in the wrong place entirely I suspect. What I like about this England one day side is they are finally experimenting – its crammed full of youngsters and some are developing nicely. Vaughan as one day skipper is doing a solid job – and he remains an elegant bat.

Yes, it's good to see the younger chaps getting a turn. I gather Rod Marsh genuinely believes there's some outstanding talent on the way up. The challenge is to avoid them losing their way as so many have in the past.

But you can’t afford Cannon to have another outing like that when you face the ABs.

He's our second choice hooker. What next? Our third choice? As a matter of fact, though, on the whole, I suspect world rugby is lacking quality hookers.

Whats available in that U21 side we saw up here recently? It would be better to play a young blood than older hands that aren’t good enough. I only noticed Noriega had been replaced when Stransky (we got the Bok commentary feed) pointed out Darwin was there – it made no difference to the scrum certainly.

No one from the U21 front row has been talked about. The acknowledged talents in that team were/are the halves, the fullback (who plays centre and wing for the Brumbies), and a winger. Unfortunately, we've already got a few of all of them. We shouldn't forget, of course, that Eddie brought Matt Dunning into this squad because he thought he was the most improved prop/player in S12. Who knows? We might even see him on the bench soon. I've seen nothing to suggest that he's anywhere near ready for the big time, though.

Didn’t he take it well – I was very impressed with that. The more I see of the boy the better he seems. No problems for you in the openside slot at the moment.

I think he realised Smith's injury has been his big chance. He was also very dirty about being left behind from the last NH tour after only a couple of games back from injury. Big point to prove.

I’ll be even kinder to him and suggest he got taken a smidgen late when he kicked on there?

Borderline at best. Still, at least he can now say he's kicked a rugby ball.

Is adaptive rugby the strength of either of them? Gregan is a great skipper by personal example but he is no sainted one when it come to tactical decisions is he?

Unless I'm missing something, I think it's becoming clear that neither of them has a grasp of adaptive rugby. I've seen too many games where the team has persisted with obviously flawed tactics.

Eddie always strikes me as being similar to Clive in one way – when it goes wrong it is someone elses fault. His post match comments were scathing of the way the boys played but they didn’t seem to acknowledge in anyway that the lads must have been following his game plan?

Post-match, he actually said - I think it was Eddie, it might have been George - that they had been working on starting the backline deeper but hadn't quite got it right. Something of an understatement. Okay, starting them deep can work, providing: (a) the half back isn't being murdered by the oppo flanker while he's travelling backwards; and (b) once the ball reaches the first receiver, he does more than simply charge back into the oppo centres and flankers who are set, ready and waiting to monster him. Surely one of the reasons you start a backline deep is to increase the options and angles, and, most importantly, bypass the killers waiting in midfield? It's honestly beyond me. Particularly when Eddie is constantly pointing out how aggressive rugby defence is these days. Everyone is charging up into the attacking players' faces. But we keep falling for it!

Of course the ARU really can’t be seen to be pressuring the coach just three months before the RWC – but I’m sure behind the scenes they are looking at things carefully.

The papers have been full of a feud between O'Neill and Gregan, a lot of which can be traced to George's involvement with the Players' Union and their fiscal battle with the ARU over intellectual property rights. I don't know exactly where Eddie fits into it all, but he and George are close from their Brumbies days.

The players all speak highly of Eddie, particularly in terms of his preparation for matches - he has every information base covered - and his ability to create an atmosphere in which they feel they can grow as people and players. I have no doubt they're telling the truth. What he has to prove to me, though, is that he has it in him also to mould and develop a team at Test level, devising and managing game strategies. Just as Bob Dwyer and Rod Macqueen did. The evidence, I have to say, thus far, is that he's not yet achieving it.

Lets be honest if the Wallabies lift the World Cup Jones will be forgiven everything. If the ABs lift it he will probably be dismissed. If England lift it there will be a public hanging.

All true. But if he were to be dismissed, there's no obvious candidate to replace him.

Are we looking at a five point start to the ABs?

Probably fair enough. Take a line through the ABs and the Wallabies - both went down narrowly to England; ABs thumped Wales and we couldn't; we thumped Ireland, ABs struggled against France. And we went down narrowly to the Boks. On that basis, five points is fair. But what allowance, if any, should be made for altitude?

[finbar]

Originally posted by Caligastia
Five point start?? I'll definitely back the Boks if that's the case. What do you think finbar?

See immediately above. What do you think the start should be? If there is one?

[LDiCesare]

Sorry, I missed this post. So that's 20 Civ Gold on the ABs against the Boks?

Yes, even with a 5 point start. I know the boks are hard to play particularly in their highlands, but still don't think they can do much, though they showed great things against the aussies.

[finbar]

Okay. Your bet is recorded.

[Frozzy]

Sorry... I don't comprehend.

Does this mean the game starts ABs 5 - 0 Boks, or ABs 0 - 5 Boks?

[finbar]

Actually, it would be either 4.5 points or 5.5 points. With margin betting, you always have a fraction involved. Let's call it 5.5, for the sake of the exercise. We're thinking the ABs are favourites to win, so it means the game starts, for our purposes, with the Boks leading 5.5 - 0. Thus, if you bet on the ABs, the ABs have to win by 6 points or more. Or, if you bet on the Boks, they have to lose by no more than 5 points, win, or draw the match.

We were only tossing around the margin. Nothing has been decided yet. What are your thoughts?