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  • Unemployment rate hits the highest levels since Reagan

    From Friday's New York Daily News:

    Jobless at 20 year high

    Most unemployment claims since 1983

    By JUDITH SCHOOLMAN
    DAILY NEWS BUSINESS WRITER


    Jobless claims have been rising this year.

    In an ongoing sign of the weak economy, the number of Americans getting unemployment benefits hit the highest level in more than 20 years during the last week of May.
    But on the upside, shoppers sent retail sales higher last month as the war in Iraq ended, the government said.

    The employment picture remained gloomy as productivity improved but companies held back on hiring, awaiting firmer signs of economic strength, the Labor Department said in its weekly report on jobless claims.

    The ranks of the unemployed rose to 3.8 million, the highest since early April 1983, from 3.68 million in the prior week, the Labor Department said.

    Initial jobless claims fell in the latest week by 17,000 to 430,000, still above the 400,000 mark that indicates a weak labor market. New claims have been above 400,000 for 16 weeks in a row.

    "The numbers are disappointing, but the reality is that the economy can sit around with a jobless recovery," said chief economist Bill Cheney of John Hancock Financial Services.

    "As long as the job market doesn't collapse," Cheney said he had no worries about declines in consumer spending, or "a slide back into another recession."

    Meanwhile, the nation's retail sales rose 0.1%, but would have risen even more had gas prices not declined, the Commerce Department said.

    Sales fell 0.3% in April, while excluding autos, they fell 0.9%.

    "It appears that consumers have begun to bounce back from the Iraq-induced doldrums," said National Retail Federation chief economist Rosalind Wells.

    "What's most encouraging is that discretionary spending is up - clothing, appliances - which indicates consumers are feeling pretty confident," said Stephen Stanley, economist at Greenwich Capital.

    Unemployment "is a lagging indicator, but it compels [stock market] traders to feel even more strongly that we're ripe" for an interest rate cut, said Brian Piskorowski, market strategist at Prudential Securities.

    Economists said yesterday's economic numbers, along with anecdotes from the Fed's recent "beige book" report, suggested the central bank could cut interest rates by one-quarter point to 1%, a level last seen in the late 1950s when Dwight Eisenhower was president.

    Wall Street payed more attention to Altria and AT&T than to the reports, see-sawing for much of the session.

    The Dow added 13.33 to 9,196.55. The Nasdaq rose 7.60 to 1,653.62.

    Altria fell 78 cents to $42.90 after the Illinois Supreme Court refused to hear its appeal of the $10 billion judgment against it in a smoking suit.

    AT&T rose $1.03 to $21.53 on reports that the phone company could be a takeover target.

    With Tom Van Riper

    Originally published on June 13, 2003

  • #2
    It's still not too bad. The unemployment rate is at about 6% which is fairly low (especially compared to Europe). Also there is growth, albeit small. And the stock market is rising quickly, which doesn't mean too, too much, except that when it hits 10,000 again, people are going to think the worst is over and start buying even more... even though they are still buying plenty.
    “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
    - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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    • #3
      Darn it, Imran, you let me down. I was expecting you to point out that unemployment is a trailing indicator.

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      • #4
        Well that it is as well... but even if it wasn't, it ain't that high .
        “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
        - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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        • #5
          I don't believe that a 'jobless recovery' is no recovery at all. It's starting to look like the low unemployment numbers during the 90s are going to result in very high unemployment for this decade. In the nineties the tech sector was growing because businesses were buying new equipment to improving productivity. We are still seeing productivity improvements because it takes time to use the new tools productively. As sales of business equipment declines (glut) and productivity continues to increase the unemployment rate will rise.

          edit: fixed the error that Imran found.
          Last edited by Kidlicious; June 14, 2003, 21:42.
          I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
          - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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          • #6
            I don't believe that a 'jobless recovery' is a recovery at all.


            That's um... nice and all...

            “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
            - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

            Comment


            • #7
              Just to point out, this article is using total number of claims, which is somewhat misleading, given that the population of the US has increased. If you look at the percentage of unemployment, as can be seen here, you can see that the last time we had these numbers was in April '94.

              (Of course, the number are only so good, since they only keep track of people who are unemployed that are still recieving unemployment compensation, IIRC. Which mean that the real percentage of people unemployed is probably higher.)
              "I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen

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              • #8
                Unemployment is decreasing here, but the trend between the 60's and the 80s is increasing. If we are on that increasing trend we are set for a big upswing.

                I can't get the graph up but here is a link.
                Last edited by Kidlicious; June 14, 2003, 22:37.
                I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                • #9
                  Everyone knows it's a trailing indicator, right? Good. Now let's please censor the word "Bush" from this thread

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                  • #10
                    Zkribbler, I hate to break this to you but there are more people in the country today than there was when Reagan was President. So there probably would be a larger number unemployed even though the percentage is still 6.1%. Catch my drift? I really hate it when statistics are skewed to fit the opinion of one political group, particularily the democrats.

                    It's starting to look like the low unemployment numbers during the 90s are going to result in very high unemployment for this decade.
                    I disagree.
                    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Fez
                      I disagree.
                      Of course if the unemployment rate increases then you will make up something about the communist policies or something.
                      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

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                      • #12
                        Better than blaming everything on the rich .
                        “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
                        - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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                        • #13
                          Better than blaming everything on the rich .
                          or Bush's economic policies that pay back his corporate campaign contributors
                          To us, it is the BEAST.

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                          • #14
                            I suppose Gore would've left his corporate campaign contributors out in the cold.
                            KH FOR OWNER!
                            ASHER FOR CEO!!
                            GUYNEMER FOR OT MOD!!!

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                            • #15
                              Hmm... Not a totally negative report but still not good.

                              If unemployment is still rising fast, that would suggest it's going to get worse before it gets better.

                              I really dislike unemployment. It's not a national thing, it's a personal thing. Being unemployed really does screw your thinking around.
                              Some cry `Allah O Akbar` in the street. And some carry Allah in their heart.
                              "The CIA does nothing, says nothing, allows nothing, unless its own interests are served. They are the biggest assembly of liars and theives this country ever put under one roof and they are an abomination" Deputy COS (Intel) US Army 1981-84

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