Is Britain's European Policy in Tatters?

[Solly]

"Wait and see" continues on the Euro - though the "prepare and decide" regime is a lot more credible. Makes the current Eurozone look like they've rushed into a potentially folly project.

Completely split over military issues.

EU constitution; d'Estaing wants Britain to have a constitution over it, and so do the British people. But our leader says no.

Have the UK lost influence in the EU as a result of maintaining strong ties with the US?

The third issue is the "special relationship". Before the Iraq crisis, Britain's privileged position in Washington could still be seen as an asset in European Union politics. As the political and moral compromises of maintaining it have grown and the pay-off has remained so meagre, it has turned into more of a liability.

Financial Times article

[MRT144]

i blame immigrants!

[MikeH]

Can anyone remember when our European policy wasn't a complete mess?

[Solly]

1940?

[MRT144]

1940

[MikeH]

I was thinking that but I think that being in war with half of it is quite a mess.

[Drogue]

No, 1939 it was a mess, by 1940 we were sorting out that mess. We were in a bad place, but our policy was probably the correct one.

Personally, I'm fine with the constitution, and I am all for there not being a referendum. I think Euro policy isn't that bad, we will join the Euro when our economies have converged. It seems sensible to me.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Drogue
I think Euro policy isn't that bad, we will join the Euro when our economies have converged. It seems sensible to me.

Right now there is inflation in Ireland and Recession in Germany. I don't think it's going to happen.

[CerberusIV]

You believe we actually have a European policy?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Kidicious
Right now there is inflation in Ireland and Recession in Germany. I don't think it's going to happen.

How are things in France?

[The Andy-Man]

Britains european policy is working great

dividing europe so heavily over Iraq? Probably the greatest succes we have had in europe for ages, all we need now is a conservative govt to finally dismanyle the EU

[Solly]

Drogue,

Personally, I'm fine with the constitution, and I am all for there not being a referendum. I think Euro policy isn't that bad, we will join the Euro when our economies have converged. It seems sensible to me.

True convergence requires;

i) a much more flexible German labour market (in terms of lower reg.) and British labour market (increased take-up of foeign language)

ii) a large reduction in British sensitivity to the interest rate (requiring people to rent more, or take fixed rate mortgages)

iii) at least two years of stable Euro to £ exchange at a level neither beneficial nor detrimental to European or British industry

iv) interest rates no more than 0.5% apart for at least a year

Each criterium above, IMO, has no more than a 20% chance of happening. The chances that Britain will join the Euro are very, very low.

Kidicious

Right now there is inflation in Ireland and Recession in Germany. I don't think it's going to happen.

That was because those two economies had not converged, and examples of what could happen to the UK if we join without true convergence.

[DinoDoc]

How's your American policy doing?

[Drogue]

Bods: Maybe they are a bit strict IMHO. They would mean there would be no downside, but I am just looking for a situation when the downside is less than the upside. At the moment, that has not happened, but there is a considerable upside. If our interest rates were close for a period of time, and the business cycles were close, then I would go for it. Those being met would be great, but if we got close on a few (especially interest rates and cycles) then I would be all for it. I think we will, and should join it eventually. However I am not sure if we wait it will still be an option. I would like to see Brown take some more steps so that we do meet it, and then join, in a couple of/few years.

[Solly]

Pretty good. Isn't it acknowledged over there as well that Blair isn't actually Bush's poodle but his guide dog?