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What is the ECB thinking?

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  • #16
    "It's the savings rate that kills us. It's the investment rate that saves us."

    Aha, so you want to expand the current account deficit further? 6%? 7%? 8%?

    "People don't speculate with their houses, because they live in them."

    That is not mutually exclusive.

    "The Fed has already hinted that it would take a more active stance earlier on to prevent BOJ part deux, and that means loose monetary policy."

    Question is if it works. I have a bet running with your friend Spiky - wanna join in?
    “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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    • #17
      Originally posted by HershOstropoler
      Question is if it works. I have a bet running with your friend Spiky - wanna join in?
      What exactly is the bet?
      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

      Comment

      • #18
        US GDP growth 2003-2006. I have the japan scenario (around zero) or the hangover scenario (around 5%), spikey the recovery scenario (should be 12-13%, wouldn't give an exact number).
        “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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        • #19
          <- afraid of Inflation, specifically Hyperinflation
          Creates more problems in the Long Run.
          Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal!

          Comment

          • #20
            Originally posted by *End Is Forever*
            Did anyone else think this thread was about cricket?
            Yep, I thought they were complaining about Michael Vaughan

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            • #21
              Originally posted by HershOstropoler
              US GDP growth 2003-2006. I have the japan scenario (around zero) or the hangover scenario (around 5%), spikey the recovery scenario (should be 12-13%, wouldn't give an exact number).
              How about just a bet that the US will grow faster than the EU if the EU follows its zero inflation policy and the US takes a full employment strategy?
              I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
              - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

              Comment

              • #22
                Originally posted by Main_Brain
                <- afraid of Inflation, specifically Hyperinflation
                Creates more problems in the Long Run.
                Is 2-3% what you call hyperinflation?
                I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                Comment

                • #23
                  "How about just a bet that the US will grow faster than the EU if the EU follows its zero inflation policy and the US takes a full employment strategy?"

                  Full employment strategy? That's a funny name for what the Fed does.

                  But why not. We just need to subtract 0.5 percentage points per year for the US.
                  “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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                  • #24
                    I thought this was going to be a cricket thread, but somehow it turned out to be even more boring than that.
                    If I'm posting here then Counterglow must be down.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                      Full employment strategy? That's a funny name for what the Fed does.
                      Actually they target the inflation rate at about 3%. So let's bet that if the Fed continues targeting the inflation rate at 3-4% and the ECB targets their inflation rate at less than 1% that the US will have a faster growth rate than the EU.
                      Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                      But why not. We just need to subtract 0.5 percentage points per year for the US.
                      Why?
                      I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                      - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                      Comment

                      • #26
                        "and the ECB targets their inflation rate at less than 1% that the US will have a faster growth rate than the EU."

                        The ECB actually "targets" a HICP rate of 1.5 % medium term in a 0-2% corridor.

                        "Why?"

                        To adjust for differences in methodology.
                        “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

                        Comment

                        • #27
                          Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                          The ECB actually "targets" a HICP rate of 1.5 % medium term in a 0-2% corridor.
                          ok, these numbers are fine.
                          Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                          To adjust for differences in methodology.
                          Can you briefly explain this?
                          I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                          - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                          Comment

                          • #28
                            BEA uses hedonic deflators, the difference is estimated at about 0.5% per year.
                            “Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by HershOstropoler
                              BEA uses hedonic deflators, the difference is estimated at about 0.5% per year.
                              What does the World Bank use?
                              I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                              - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                              Comment

                              • #30
                                I'll give you the 0.5%. You're on.
                                I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
                                - Justice Brett Kavanaugh

                                Comment

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